XOM
ExxonMobil · Energy · Integrated Oil & Gas
$164.05
52w 108.35 – 176.41
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$680.0B
P/E
23.9
P/FCF
29.2
FCF yield
3.4%
ROE
11.1%
Shldr yield
5.4%
div 2.5% + bb 2.9%
What today's price assumes
At $680.0B, the market is pricing in 12.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 19.9% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $87 · $195 · $281 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.7× across 15 years, XOM would trade near $84/share (25th–75th percentile: $69–$103); it trades at 13.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−7.0%
Rev 5y
+13.2%
Rev 10y
+3.3%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+5.7%
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
+19.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $85.1B | +2.4% | $4.2B | −45.8% | 1.00 | $8.7B |
| Q4'25 * | $82.3B | −1.3% | $6.5B | −14.6% | 1.54 | $12.7B |
| Q3'25 | $85.3B | −5.2% | $7.5B | −12.3% | 1.76 | $14.8B |
| Q2'25 | $81.5B | −12.4% | $7.1B | −23.4% | 1.64 | $11.6B |
| Q1'25 | $83.1B | +0.1% | $7.7B | −6.2% | 1.76 | $13.0B |
| Q4'24 * | $83.4B | −6.7% | $7.6B | −0.3% | 1.72 | $12.2B |
| Q3'24 | $90.0B | −0.8% | $8.6B | −5.1% | 1.92 | $17.6B |
| Q2'24 | $93.1B | +15.2% | $9.2B | +17.3% | 2.14 | $10.6B |
| Q1'24 | $83.1B | −0.7% | $8.2B | −28.1% | 2.06 | $14.7B |
| Q4'23 * | $89.4B | −17.4% | $7.6B | −40.2% | 1.91 | $13.7B |
| Q3'23 | $90.8B | −14.8% | $9.1B | −53.9% | 2.25 | $16.0B |
| Q2'23 | $80.8B | −27.4% | $7.9B | −55.9% | 1.94 | $9.4B |
| Q1'23 | $83.6B | −4.7% | $11.4B | +108.6% | 2.79 | $16.3B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −7.0% | +13.2% | +3.3% | −0.7% |
| Operating cash flow | −12.2% | +28.8% | +5.5% | +0.5% |
| Free cash flow | −26.1% | +28.1% | +19.9% | +0.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | −20.4% | +12.2% | +5.7% | +0.5% |
| Equity | +10.0% | +10.5% | +4.3% | +3.9% |
| LT debt | −5.5% | −6.2% | +6.2% | +7.1% |
| Diluted shares | +0.8% | +0.2% | +0.3% | — |
| Stock price | +17.4% | +28.9% | +11.2% | +9.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$162vs $176 in SPY
17.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$356vs $181 in SPY
28.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$288vs $412 in SPY
11.2% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$392vs $813 in SPY
9.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$4.53
$446.2B created / $98.6B retained
Last 10 years
$5.60
$392.6B created / $70.1B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
17.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
7.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.33
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.5y
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
$23.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
3.4%
Share count 5y
−0.9%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 28.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 45.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 13.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 21 checks pass · 81%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/5
- pass
Revenue growth
13.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
28.8% vs 13.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/5
- pass
Net margin
8.7% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
11.1% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
17.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
7.1% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $52.0B vs NI $28.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
31% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.13 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$259.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/3
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
159% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.4% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
23.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
12.8% vs 19.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
5.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Revenue declining
Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 332,238 | — | — | 28,844 | 6.70 | 51,970 | 28,358 | 23,612 | 17,231 | 20,273 | — | 10,681 | 34,241 | 259,386 | 4,305 |
| 2024 | 349,585 | — | — | 33,680 | 7.84 | 55,022 | 24,306 | 30,716 | 16,704 | 19,629 | — | 23,029 | 36,755 | 263,705 | 4,298 |
| 2023 | 344,582 | — | — | 36,010 | 8.89 | 55,369 | 21,919 | 33,450 | 14,941 | 17,748 | — | 31,539 | 37,483 | 204,802 | 4,052 |
| 2022 | 413,680 | — | — | 55,740 | 13.26 | 76,797 | 18,407 | 58,390 | 14,939 | 15,155 | — | 29,640 | 40,559 | 195,049 | 4,205 |
| 2021 | 276,692 | — | — | 23,040 | 5.39 | 48,129 | 12,076 | 36,053 | 14,924 | 155 | — | 6,802 | 43,428 | 168,577 | 4,275 |
| 2020 | 178,574 | — | — | -22,440 | -5.25 | 14,668 | 17,282 | -2,614 | 14,865 | 405 | — | 4,364 | 47,182 | 157,150 | 4,271 |
| 2019 | 255,583 | — | — | 14,340 | 3.36 | 29,716 | 24,361 | 5,355 | 14,652 | 594 | — | 3,089 | 26,342 | 191,650 | 4,270 |
| 2018 | 279,332 | — | — | 20,840 | 4.88 | 36,014 | 19,574 | 16,440 | 13,798 | 626 | — | 3,042 | 20,538 | 191,794 | 4,270 |
| 2017 | 237,162 | — | — | 19,710 | 4.63 | 30,066 | 15,402 | 14,664 | 13,001 | 747 | — | 3,177 | 23,100 | 187,688 | 4,256 |
| 2016 | 200,628 | — | — | 7,840 | 1.88 | 22,082 | 16,163 | 5,919 | 12,453 | 977 | — | 3,657 | 27,700 | 167,325 | 4,177 |
| 2015 | 239,854 | — | — | 16,150 | 3.85 | 30,344 | 26,490 | 3,854 | 12,090 | 4,039 | — | 3,705 | 18,700 | 170,811 | 4,196 |
| 2014 | 394,105 | — | — | 32,520 | 7.60 | 45,116 | 32,952 | 12,164 | 11,568 | 13,183 | — | 4,616 | 11,300 | 174,399 | 4,282 |
| 2013 | 420,836 | — | — | 32,580 | 7.37 | 44,914 | 33,669 | 11,245 | 10,875 | 15,998 | — | 4,644 | 6,500 | 174,003 | 4,419 |
| 2012 | 451,509 | — | — | 44,880 | 9.70 | 56,170 | 34,271 | 21,899 | 10,092 | 21,068 | — | 9,582 | 7,500 | 165,863 | 4,628 |
| 2011 | 467,029 | — | — | 41,060 | 8.42 | 55,345 | 30,975 | 24,370 | 9,020 | 22,055 | — | 12,664 | 9,322 | 154,396 | 4,875 |
| 2010 | 370,125 | — | — | 30,460 | 6.22 | 48,413 | 26,871 | 21,542 | 8,498 | 13,093 | — | 7,825 | 12,227 | 146,839 | — |
| 2009 | 301,500 | — | — | 19,280 | 3.98 | 28,438 | 22,491 | 5,947 | 8,023 | 19,703 | — | 10,693 | 7,129 | 110,569 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.