WMT
Walmart · Consumer Staples · Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
$106.49
52w 95.42 – 135.16
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$847.5B
P/E
38.7
P/FCF
56.8
FCF yield
1.8%
ROE
22.0%
Shldr yield
1.8%
div 0.9% + bb 1.0%
What today's price assumes
At $847.5B, the market is pricing in 22.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -0.7% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $20 · $20 · $25 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 8.2× across 19 years, WMT would trade near $43/share (25th–75th percentile: $33–$63); it trades at 20.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+5.3%
Rev 5y
+4.9%
Rev 10y
+3.9%
EPS 5y
+11.2%
EPS 10y
+5.9%
FCF 5y
−10.4%
FCF 10y
−0.7%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | $175.7B | +7.1% | $5.3B | +18.8% | 0.67 | $4.7B |
| Q4'26 * | $188.9B | +5.6% | $4.2B | −19.4% | 0.52 | $14.1B |
| Q3'26 | $177.8B | +5.8% | $6.1B | +34.2% | 0.77 | $9.1B |
| Q2'26 | $175.8B | +4.8% | $7.0B | +56.1% | 0.88 | $12.9B |
| Q1'26 | $164.0B | +2.5% | $4.5B | −12.1% | 0.56 | $5.4B |
| Q4'25 * | $178.8B | +4.0% | $5.3B | −4.4% | 0.65 | $13.5B |
| Q3'25 | $168.0B | +5.4% | $4.6B | +910.4% | 0.57 | $6.6B |
| Q2'25 | $167.8B | +4.7% | $4.5B | −43.0% | 0.56 | $12.1B |
| Q1'25 | $159.9B | +5.9% | $5.1B | +205.1% | 0.63 | $4.2B |
| Q4'24 * | $171.9B | +5.6% | $5.5B | −12.4% | 0.67 | $16.7B |
| Q3'24 | $159.4B | +5.3% | $453.0M | — | 0.06 | $813.0M |
| Q2'24 | $160.3B | +5.9% | $7.9B | +53.3% | 0.97 | $13.6B |
| Q1'24 | $151.0B | +7.6% | $1.7B | −18.5% | 0.21 | $4.6B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.3% | +4.9% | +3.9% | +3.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +13.0% | +2.9% | +4.2% | +3.8% |
| Free cash flow | +7.6% | −10.4% | −0.7% | +2.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | +24.3% | +11.2% | +5.9% | +4.0% |
| Equity | +9.1% | +4.2% | +2.1% | +2.5% |
| LT debt | −0.0% | −3.4% | −1.0% | −1.1% |
| Diluted shares | −0.7% | −1.0% | −1.7% | −2.0% |
| Stock price | +26.5% | +18.0% | +18.1% | +14.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$202vs $176 in SPY
26.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$229vs $181 in SPY
18.0% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$527vs $412 in SPY
18.1% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$805vs $813 in SPY
14.9% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$13.78
$683.2B created / $49.6B retained
Last 10 years
$10.93
$847.8B created / $77.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
31.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.04
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.3y
SBC / FCF
24.1%
Owner earnings
$11.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.3%
Share count 5y
−2.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
19.3%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.29
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 11.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 28.7% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 3.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
13 of 26 checks pass · 50%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- fail
Revenue growth
4.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
11.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-10.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
2.9% vs 4.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/6
- fail
Net margin
3.1% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
4.2% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
22.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
31.0% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
2.1% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $41.6B vs NI $21.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
31% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.35 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$99.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
8% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
24% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
105% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
38.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
22.0% vs -0.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 706,413 | — | 29,825 | 21,893 | 2.73 | 41,565 | 26,642 | 14,923 | 7,507 | 8,088 | 3,603 | 10,727 | 34,624 | 99,617 | 8,022 |
| 2025 | 674,538 | — | 29,348 | 19,436 | 2.41 | 36,443 | 23,783 | 12,660 | 6,688 | 4,494 | 2,769 | 9,037 | 33,401 | 91,013 | 8,081 |
| 2024 | 642,637 | — | 27,012 | 15,511 | 1.91 | 35,726 | 20,606 | 15,120 | 6,140 | 2,779 | 2,093 | 9,867 | 36,132 | 83,861 | 8,108 |
| 2023 | 605,881 | — | 20,428 | 11,680 | 1.42 | 28,841 | 16,857 | 11,984 | 6,114 | 9,920 | 1,578 | 8,625 | 34,649 | 76,693 | 8,202 |
| 2022 | 567,762 | — | 25,942 | 13,673 | 1.62 | 24,181 | 13,106 | 11,075 | 6,152 | 9,787 | 1,163 | 14,760 | 34,864 | 83,253 | 8,415 |
| 2021 | 555,233 | — | 22,548 | 13,510 | 1.61 | 36,074 | 10,264 | 25,810 | 6,116 | 2,625 | 1,169 | 17,741 | 41,194 | 80,925 | 8,415 |
| 2020 | 519,926 | — | 20,568 | 14,881 | 1.76 | 25,255 | 10,705 | 14,550 | 6,048 | 5,717 | 854 | 9,465 | 43,714 | 74,669 | 8,477 |
| 2019 | 510,329 | — | 21,957 | 6,670 | 0.76 | 27,753 | 10,344 | 17,409 | 6,102 | 7,410 | 773 | 7,722 | 43,520 | 72,496 | 8,705 |
| 2018 | 495,761 | — | 20,437 | 9,862 | 1.11 | 28,337 | 10,051 | 18,286 | 6,124 | 8,296 | 626 | 6,756 | 30,045 | 77,869 | 8,897 |
| 2017 | 481,317 | — | 22,764 | 13,643 | 1.48 | 31,673 | 10,619 | 21,054 | 6,216 | 8,298 | 596 | 6,867 | 36,015 | 77,798 | 9,198 |
| 2016 | 482,130 | — | 24,105 | 14,694 | 1.55 | 27,552 | 11,477 | 16,075 | 6,294 | 4,112 | 448 | 8,705 | 38,214 | 80,546 | 9,509 |
| 2015 | 485,651 | — | 27,147 | 16,363 | 1.71 | 28,564 | 12,174 | 16,390 | 6,185 | 1,015 | 462 | 9,135 | 40,889 | 81,394 | 9,585 |
| 2014 | 476,294 | — | 26,872 | 16,022 | 1.65 | 23,257 | 13,115 | 10,142 | 6,139 | 6,683 | 388 | 7,281 | 41,771 | 76,255 | 9,704 |
| 2013 | 468,651 | — | 27,725 | 16,999 | 1.70 | 25,591 | 12,898 | 12,693 | 5,361 | 7,600 | 378 | 7,781 | 38,394 | 76,343 | 10,017 |
| 2012 | 446,509 | — | 26,491 | 15,699 | 1.53 | 24,255 | 13,510 | 10,745 | 5,048 | 6,298 | 355 | 6,550 | 44,070 | 71,315 | 10,268 |
| 2011 | 421,849 | — | 25,542 | 16,389 | 1.51 | 23,643 | 12,699 | 10,944 | 4,437 | 14,776 | 371 | 7,395 | 40,692 | 68,542 | 10,848 |
| 2010 | 408,085 | — | 24,002 | 14,370 | 1.26 | 26,249 | 12,184 | 14,065 | 4,217 | 7,276 | — | 7,907 | 33,231 | 70,468 | 11,459 |
| 2009 | 404,254 | — | 22,767 | 13,381 | 1.15 | 23,147 | 11,499 | 11,648 | 3,746 | 3,521 | — | 7,275 | 31,349 | 65,285 | 11,678 |
| 2008 | 377,023 | — | 21,952 | 12,731 | 1.06 | 20,642 | 14,937 | 5,705 | 3,586 | 7,691 | — | — | — | 66,250 | 12,036 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.