MMarketMath

WFC

Slow growerQuality: Medium (56/100)1 red flag

Wells Fargo · Financials · Diversified Banks

$84.72

52w 72.78 – 97.76

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$256.2B

P/E

12.4

P/FCF

FCF yield

-7.2%

ROE

11.8%

Shldr yield

8.7%

div 2.1% + bb 6.6%

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 20.1× across 8 years, WFC would trade near $20/share (25th–75th percentile: $6–$62); it trades at 84.4× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+4.0%

Rev 5y

+2.4%

Rev 10y

−0.6%

EPS 5y

+70.9%

EPS 10y

+5.1%

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2016: $88.3B
2017: $88.4B
2018: $86.4B
2019: $85.1B
2020: $74.3B
2021: $79.2B
2022: $74.4B
2023: $82.6B
2024: $82.3B
2025: $83.7B
$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Net income

2016: $21.9B
2017: $22.2B
2018: $22.4B
2019: $19.7B
2020: $3.4B
2021: $22.1B
2022: $13.7B
2023: $19.1B
2024: $19.7B
2025: $21.3B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Free cash flow

2016: $1.0B
2017: $18.6B
2018: $36.1B
2019: $6.7B
2020: $2.1B
2021: −$11.5B
2022: $27.0B
2023: $40.4B
2024: $3.0B
2025: −$19.0B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2016: 5.1B
2017: 5.0B
2018: 4.8B
2019: 4.4B
2020: 4.1B
2021: 4.1B
2022: 3.8B
2023: 3.7B
2024: 3.5B
2025: 3.2B
02.0B4.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Margins

-25%0%25%50%1618202224
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2016: $15.6B
2017: $17.4B
2018: $28.3B
2019: $32.7B
2020: $8.3B
2021: $16.9B
2022: $10.2B
2023: $16.6B
2024: $24.6B
2025: $22.9B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$150.0B$200.0B$250.0B1618202224
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $20.5B
Q3'23: $20.9B
Q4'23: $20.5B
Q1'24: $20.9B
Q2'24: $20.7B
Q3'24: $20.4B
Q4'24: $20.4B
Q1'25: $20.1B
Q2'25: $20.8B
Q3'25: $21.4B
Q4'25: $21.3B
Q1'26: $21.4B
Q2'26: $22.6B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $4.9B
Q3'23: $5.8B
Q4'23: $3.4B
Q1'24: $4.6B
Q2'24: $4.9B
Q3'24: $5.1B
Q4'24: $5.1B
Q1'25: $4.9B
Q2'25: $5.5B
Q3'25: $5.6B
Q4'25: $5.4B
Q1'26: $5.3B
Q2'26: $6.4B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$22.6B+8.6%$6.4B+16.6%2.00$6.8B
Q1'26$21.4B+6.4%$5.3B+7.3%1.60$9.1B
Q4'25 *$21.3B+4.5%$5.4B+5.6%1.61$4.1B
Q3'25$21.4B+5.3%$5.6B+9.3%1.66−$869.0M
Q2'25$20.8B+0.6%$5.5B+11.9%1.60−$11.2B
Q1'25$20.1B−3.4%$4.9B+6.0%1.39−$11.0B
Q4'24 *$20.4B−0.5%$5.1B+47.4%1.42$8.9B
Q3'24$20.4B−2.4%$5.1B−11.3%1.42$4.2B
Q2'24$20.7B+0.8%$4.9B−0.6%1.33$2.0B
Q1'24$20.9B+0.6%$4.6B−7.5%1.20−$12.1B
Q4'23 *$20.5B+2.2%$3.4B+9.2%0.87$18.2B
Q3'23$20.9B+6.6%$5.8B+60.6%1.48$15.5B
Q2'23$20.5B+20.5%$4.9B+57.2%1.25−$755.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+4.0%+2.4%
Operating cash flow+10.3%−14.7%
Free cash flow+10.3%−14.7%
EPS (diluted)+24.2%+70.9%
Equity+0.2%−0.4%
LT debt−0.0%−3.9%
Diluted shares−5.5%−4.7%
Stock price+29.9%+15.8%+8.1%+11.1%

$100, 3 years ago

$219vs $176 in SPY

29.9% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$208vs $181 in SPY

15.8% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$218vs $412 in SPY

8.1% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$488vs $813 in SPY

11.1% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$2.45

$181.4B created / $74.0B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

-5.3%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

MC vs 10× OCF

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

Owner earnings

−$20.5B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

-7.7%

Share count 5y

−4.9%

per year; negative = buybacks

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 125.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -41.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -52.7% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

10 of 19 checks pass · 53%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

3/6

  • Revenue growth

    2.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • EPS growth

    70.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    4 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail
  • FCF consistently positive

    8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    -14.7% vs 2.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

1/5

  • Net margin

    25.5% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    11.8% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    -5.3% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    -22.7% · ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF −$19.0B vs NI $21.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    fail

Balance Sheet

2/3

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    na
  • Cash cushion

    99% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    0.96 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $181.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

2/2

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -4.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    na
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/3

  • FCF yield

    -7.2% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    12.4 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    8.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Negative free cash flow

Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202583,69921,3386.26-19,001-19,0015,43417,5161,476172,593174,712181,1173,242
202482,29619,7225.373,0353,0355,13319,4481,281201,902173,078179,1203,468
202382,59719,1424.8340,35840,3584,78911,8511,122236,052207,588185,7353,720
202274,36813,6773.2727,04827,0484,1786,033978159,157174,870180,2273,837
202179,16622,1095.08-11,525-11,5252,42214,4641,005234,230160,689187,6064,096
202074,2643,3770.432,0512,0514,8523,415622264,612212,950184,6804,134
201985,06319,7154.096,7306,7308,19824,5331,217141,250228,191187,1464,425
201886,40822,3934.2836,07336,0737,69220,6331,022173,287229,044196,1664,838
201788,38922,1834.1018,61918,6197,4809,908849215,947225,020206,9365,017
201688,26721,9383.991,0081,0087,4728,116779221,400255,077199,5815,108

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.