WELL
Welltower · Real Estate · Health Care REITs
$240.01
52w 163.75 – 255.20
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$169.4B
P/E
175.6
P/FCF
92.2
FCF yield
1.1%
ROE
2.3%
Shldr yield
1.1%
div 1.1% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $169.4B, the market is pricing in 28.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 4.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $40 · $41 · $51 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 12.9× across 18 years, WELL would trade near $53/share (25th–75th percentile: $41–$93); it trades at 58.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+26.5%
Rev 5y
+12.9%
Rev 10y
+8.2%
EPS 5y
−9.8%
EPS 10y
−5.1%
FCF 5y
+10.3%
FCF 10y
+4.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $2.8B | +49.1% | $752.3M | +192.4% | 1.02 | $670.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $2.6B | +45.1% | $117.8M | −4.8% | 0.13 | $654.3M |
| Q3'25 | $2.1B | +36.4% | $282.2M | −38.2% | 0.41 | $858.4M |
| Q2'25 | $2.0B | +41.4% | $304.6M | +16.9% | 0.45 | $770.0M |
| Q1'25 | $1.9B | +37.1% | $257.3M | +95.4% | 0.40 | $599.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.8B | +39.5% | $123.8M | +39.9% | 0.20 | $559.2M |
| Q3'24 | $1.5B | +26.0% | $456.8M | +239.1% | 0.73 | $685.0M |
| Q2'24 | $1.4B | +20.2% | $260.7M | +145.1% | 0.42 | $605.4M |
| Q1'24 | $1.4B | +20.2% | $131.6M | +359.7% | 0.22 | $406.8M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.3B | — | $88.4M | +4818.8% | 0.17 | $370.5M |
| Q3'23 | $1.2B | −18.6% | $134.7M | — | 0.24 | $439.1M |
| Q2'23 | $1.2B | −21.3% | $106.3M | +11.2% | 0.20 | $416.2M |
| Q1'23 | $1.1B | −18.9% | $28.6M | −56.4% | 0.05 | $376.1M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +26.5% | +12.9% | +8.2% | +19.6% |
| Operating cash flow | +29.4% | +16.1% | +7.6% | +14.8% |
| Free cash flow | +29.0% | +10.3% | +4.4% | +11.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | +66.7% | −9.8% | −5.1% | +3.5% |
| Equity | +27.6% | +21.4% | +11.2% | +15.9% |
| LT debt | +9.3% | +51.8% | +4.7% | +10.7% |
| Diluted shares | +13.5% | +10.2% | +6.9% | +11.8% |
| Stock price | +45.2% | +25.2% | +16.1% | +15.4% |
$100, 3 years ago
$306vs $176 in SPY
45.2% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$308vs $181 in SPY
25.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$445vs $412 in SPY
16.1% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$855vs $813 in SPY
15.4% vs 15.0%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
4.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
5.86
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
10.5y
SBC / FCF
85.0%
Owner earnings
$274.7M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.2%
Share count 5y
+12.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 422.6% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 3.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 16.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
11 of 24 checks pass · 46%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
12.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-9.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
10.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
16.1% vs 12.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/5
- pass
Net margin
11.4% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
2.3% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
4.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
21.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.9B vs NI $961.8M · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
10.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
26% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.46 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$42.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
0/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
12.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
85% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
103% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
1 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.1% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
175.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
28.7% vs 4.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8,453 | — | — | 962 | 1.39 | 2,882 | 1,050 | 1,831 | 1,877 | — | 1,557 | 5,034 | 19,197 | 42,129 | 680 |
| 2024 | 6,027 | — | — | 973 | 1.57 | 2,256 | 858 | 1,399 | 1,546 | — | 76 | 3,507 | 15,500 | 31,956 | 609 |
| 2023 | 4,754 | — | — | 358 | 0.66 | 1,602 | 518 | 1,084 | 1,260 | — | 37 | 1,994 | 15,736 | 25,404 | 519 |
| 2022 | 4,174 | — | — | 161 | 0.30 | 1,329 | 476 | 853 | 1,133 | 0 | 26 | 632 | 14,714 | 20,295 | 465 |
| 2021 | 3,197 | — | — | 374 | 0.78 | 1,275 | 283 | 993 | 1,037 | 0 | 18 | 269 | 13,910 | 17,636 | 427 |
| 2020 | 4,606 | — | — | 1,039 | 2.33 | 1,365 | 245 | 1,120 | 1,120 | 8 | 28 | 1,545 | 2,378 | 15,973 | 417 |
| 2019 | 5,121 | — | — | 1,330 | 3.05 | 1,536 | 329 | 1,207 | 1,405 | 0 | 25 | 285 | 13,421 | 15,540 | 404 |
| 2018 | 4,700 | — | — | 830 | 2.02 | 1,584 | 266 | 1,318 | 1,300 | 0 | 28 | 215 | 12,186 | 14,632 | 375 |
| 2017 | 4,317 | — | — | 541 | 1.26 | 1,434 | 250 | 1,184 | 1,277 | — | 19 | 244 | 11,036 | 14,423 | 369 |
| 2016 | 4,281 | — | — | 1,082 | 2.81 | 1,639 | 219 | 1,420 | 1,234 | — | 29 | 419 | 11,725 | 14,806 | 360 |
| 2015 | 3,860 | — | — | 889 | 2.34 | 1,383 | 188 | 1,195 | 1,145 | — | 31 | 423 | 12,124 | 14,591 | 349 |
| 2014 | 3,344 | — | — | 512 | 1.45 | 1,139 | 133 | 1,006 | 970 | — | 32 | 553 | 10,759 | 13,175 | 308 |
| 2013 | 2,881 | — | — | 138 | 0.28 | 988 | 136 | 853 | 840 | — | 20 | 159 | 10,432 | 11,415 | 279 |
| 2012 | 1,805 | — | — | 295 | 0.98 | 818 | 135 | 683 | 653 | — | 19 | 1,034 | 8,457 | 10,295 | 226 |
| 2011 | 1,313 | — | — | 218 | 0.90 | 588 | -89 | 677 | 484 | — | 11 | 163 | 6,573 | 7,125 | 174 |
| 2010 | 579 | — | — | 129 | 0.83 | 365 | — | 365 | 349 | — | 12 | 132 | 4,199 | 4,603 | 128 |
| 2009 | 523 | — | — | 193 | 1.49 | 381 | — | 381 | 312 | — | 10 | 35 | — | 3,797 | 115 |
| 2008 | 505 | — | — | 283 | 2.76 | 361 | — | 361 | 254 | — | 9 | 23 | — | 3,238 | 94 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.