WDC
Western Digital · Information Technology · Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
$435.38
52w 76.70 – 799.87
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$157.0B
P/E
16.9
P/FCF
45.4
FCF yield
2.2%
ROE
106.3%
Shldr yield
1.7%
div 0.1% + bb 1.6%
What today's price assumes
At $157.0B, the market is pricing in 18.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 2.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $131 · $131 · $163 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.7× across 8 years, WDC would trade near $84/share (25th–75th percentile: $64–$141); it trades at 40.0× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+27.4%
Rev 5y
−5.3%
Rev 10y
−4.2%
EPS 5y
+55.6%
EPS 10y
+38.0%
FCF 5y
+36.1%
FCF 10y
+2.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2017–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 * | $3.7B | +43.8% | $3.2B | +1033.0% | 8.28 | $1.4B |
| Q3'26 | $3.3B | +45.5% | $3.2B | +516.3% | 8.20 | $1.1B |
| Q2'26 | $3.0B | +25.2% | $1.8B | +210.1% | 4.73 | $745.0M |
| Q1'26 | $2.8B | +27.4% | $1.2B | +139.8% | 3.07 | $672.0M |
| Q4'25 | $2.6B | +30.0% | $282.0M | +623.1% | 0.75 | $746.0M |
| Q3'25 | $2.3B | +30.9% | $520.0M | +285.2% | 1.42 | $508.0M |
| Q2'25 | $2.4B | +76.2% | $594.0M | — | 1.63 | $403.0M |
| Q1'25 | $2.2B | +85.3% | $493.0M | — | 1.35 | $34.0M |
| Q4'24 | $2.0B | — | $39.0M | — | 0.08 | $366.0M |
| Q3'24 | $1.8B | −37.5% | $135.0M | — | 0.35 | $58.0M |
| Q2'24 | $1.4B | −56.0% | −$287.0M | — | -0.92 | −$92.0M |
| Q1'24 | $1.2B | −68.0% | −$685.0M | −1557.4% | -2.17 | −$626.0M |
| Q4'23 * | −$3.4B | −174.9% | −$709.0M | −304.3% | -2.21 | −$68.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +27.4% | −5.3% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +20.2% | +15.7% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +46.7% | +36.1% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +49.3% | +55.6% | — | — |
| Equity | −6.8% | −3.9% | — | — |
| LT debt | −29.3% | −23.2% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +6.4% | +4.4% | — | — |
| Stock price | +134.3% | +55.7% | +30.3% | +23.7% |
$100, 3 years ago
$1,286vs $176 in SPY
134.3% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$916vs $181 in SPY
55.7% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,406vs $412 in SPY
30.3% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,444vs $813 in SPY
23.7% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$19.05
$193.6B created / $10.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
44.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.5%
MC vs 10× OCF
4.05
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.0y
SBC / FCF
5.8%
Owner earnings
$3.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.1%
Share count 5y
+2.9%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
19.2%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
—
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
18 of 27 checks pass · 67%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- fail
Revenue growth
-5.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
55.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
36.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
6 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
15.7% vs -5.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
72.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
34.5% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
48.9% vs 22.2% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
106.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
44.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
27.2% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.9B vs NI $9.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.00 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$8.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
4% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
2.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
6% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
79% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
4 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.2% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
16.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
18.9% vs 2.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12,919 | 6,311 | 4,453 | 9,424 | 24.28 | 3,929 | 418 | 3,511 | 174 | 2,592 | 204 | 1,579 | 0 | 8,864 | 383 |
| 2025 | 9,520 | 3,692 | 2,334 | 1,889 | 5.12 | 1,691 | 412 | 1,279 | 44 | 149 | 265 | 2,114 | 2,485 | 5,311 | 359 |
| 2024 | 6,317 | 1,773 | -403 | -798 | -2.61 | -294 | 487 | -781 | 0 | 0 | 295 | 1,551 | 5,684 | 10,818 | 326 |
| 2023 | 6,255 | 1,391 | -548 | -1,684 | -5.37 | -408 | 821 | -1,229 | 0 | 0 | 318 | 2,023 | 5,857 | 10,964 | 318 |
| 2022 | 18,793 | 5,874 | 2,391 | 1,546 | 4.89 | 1,880 | 1,122 | 758 | 0 | — | 326 | 2,327 | 7,022 | 12,323 | 316 |
| 2021 | 16,922 | 4,521 | 1,220 | 821 | 2.66 | 1,898 | 1,146 | 752 | 0 | 0 | 318 | 3,370 | 8,474 | 10,800 | 309 |
| 2020 | 16,736 | 3,781 | 335 | -250 | -0.84 | 824 | 647 | 177 | 595 | 0 | 308 | 3,048 | 9,289 | 9,551 | 298 |
| 2019 | 16,569 | 3,752 | 87 | -754 | -2.58 | 1,547 | 876 | 671 | 147 | 563 | 306 | 3,455 | 10,246 | 9,967 | 292 |
| 2018 | 20,647 | 7,705 | 3,617 | 675 | 2.20 | 4,205 | 835 | 3,370 | 593 | 591 | 377 | 5,005 | 10,993 | 11,531 | 307 |
| 2017 | 19,093 | 6,072 | 1,954 | 397 | 1.34 | 3,437 | 578 | 2,859 | 574 | 0 | 394 | 6,354 | 12,918 | 11,418 | 296 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.