WBD
Warner Bros. Discovery · Communication Services · Broadcasting
$28.70
52w 11.25 – 30.00
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$72.1B
P/E
98.6
P/FCF
23.2
FCF yield
4.3%
ROE
2.0%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $72.1B, the market is pricing in 9.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 10.0% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $19 · $29 · $36 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 23.6× across 13 years, WBD would trade near $41/share (25th–75th percentile: $21–$58); it trades at 16.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+3.3%
Rev 5y
+28.4%
Rev 10y
+19.3%
EPS 5y
−14.1%
EPS 10y
−9.9%
FCF 5y
+5.7%
FCF 10y
+10.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $8.7B | −11.2% | $149.0M | −90.6% | 0.06 | $848.0M |
| Q1'26 | $8.9B | −1.0% | −$2.9B | — | -1.17 | −$208.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $9.5B | −5.7% | −$252.0M | — | -0.10 | $1.8B |
| Q3'25 | $9.0B | −6.0% | −$148.0M | −209.6% | -0.06 | $979.0M |
| Q2'25 | $9.8B | +1.0% | $1.6B | — | 0.63 | $983.0M |
| Q1'25 | $9.0B | −9.8% | −$453.0M | — | -0.18 | $553.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $10.0B | −2.5% | −$494.0M | — | -0.20 | $2.7B |
| Q3'24 | $9.6B | −3.6% | $135.0M | — | 0.05 | $847.0M |
| Q2'24 | $9.7B | −6.2% | −$10.0B | — | -4.07 | $1.2B |
| Q1'24 | $10.0B | −6.9% | −$966.0M | — | -0.40 | $585.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $10.3B | −6.6% | −$400.0M | — | -0.16 | $3.6B |
| Q3'23 | $10.0B | +1.6% | −$417.0M | — | -0.17 | $2.5B |
| Q2'23 | $10.4B | +5.4% | −$1.2B | — | -0.51 | $2.0B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.3% | +28.4% | +19.3% | +16.6% |
| Operating cash flow | +0.1% | +9.5% | +12.8% | +13.3% |
| Free cash flow | −2.4% | +5.7% | +10.0% | +11.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | −13.9% | −14.1% | −9.9% | −3.8% |
| Equity | −8.6% | +28.0% | +20.7% | +12.4% |
| LT debt | −12.7% | +16.2% | +15.5% | +15.8% |
| Diluted shares | +9.3% | +5.2% | +7.6% | +4.8% |
| Stock price | +29.7% | −0.1% | +1.2% | +1.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$218vs $176 in SPY
29.7% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$100vs $181 in SPY
-0.1% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$113vs $412 in SPY
1.2% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$133vs $813 in SPY
1.9% vs 15.0%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
6.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.66
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
10.5y
SBC / FCF
24.9%
Owner earnings
$2.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
3.2%
Share count 5y
+6.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
17.9%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.21
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 165.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 3.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 6.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
10 of 26 checks pass · 38%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
3/7
- pass
Revenue growth
28.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-14.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
5.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
6 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
9.5% vs 28.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
2/6
- fail
Net margin
1.9% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
2.0% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
2.0% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
6.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
8.3% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $4.3B vs NI $727.0M · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
10.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
14% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.91 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$35.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
283% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
6.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
25% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
2 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
98.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
9.7% vs 10.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Revenue declining
Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37,296 | — | 738 | 727 | 0.29 | 4,319 | 1,231 | 3,088 | — | — | 769 | 4,566 | 32,567 | 35,919 | 2,530 |
| 2024 | 39,321 | — | -10,032 | -11,311 | -4.62 | 5,375 | 948 | 4,427 | — | — | 557 | 5,312 | 39,505 | 34,037 | 2,450 |
| 2023 | 41,321 | — | -1,548 | -3,126 | -1.28 | 7,477 | 1,316 | 6,161 | — | — | 500 | 3,780 | 43,669 | 45,226 | 2,436 |
| 2022 | 33,817 | — | -7,370 | -7,371 | -3.82 | 4,304 | 987 | 3,317 | — | — | 412 | 3,731 | 48,999 | 47,095 | 1,940 |
| 2021 | 12,191 | — | 2,012 | 1,006 | 0.53 | 2,798 | 373 | 2,425 | — | — | 178 | 3,905 | 14,759 | 11,599 | 1,940 |
| 2020 | 10,671 | — | 2,515 | 1,219 | 0.62 | 2,739 | 402 | 2,337 | — | — | 110 | 2,091 | 15,404 | 10,464 | 1,963 |
| 2019 | 11,144 | — | 3,009 | 2,069 | — | 3,399 | 289 | 3,110 | — | — | 142 | 1,552 | 15,419 | 9,891 | — |
| 2018 | 10,553 | — | 1,934 | 594 | — | 2,576 | 147 | 2,429 | — | 0 | 80 | 986 | 16,793 | 8,386 | — |
| 2017 | 6,873 | — | 713 | -337 | — | 1,629 | 135 | 1,494 | — | 603 | 39 | 7,309 | 14,785 | 4,610 | — |
| 2016 | 6,497 | — | 2,058 | 1,194 | — | 1,380 | 88 | 1,292 | — | 1,374 | 69 | 300 | 7,923 | 5,167 | — |
| 2015 | 6,394 | — | 1,985 | 1,034 | — | 1,294 | 103 | 1,191 | — | 698 | 35 | 390 | 7,735 | 5,451 | — |
| 2014 | 6,265 | — | 2,061 | 1,139 | — | 1,318 | 120 | 1,198 | — | 1,232 | 78 | 367 | 7,109 | 5,602 | — |
| 2013 | 5,535 | — | 1,975 | 1,075 | 1.02 | 1,285 | 115 | 1,170 | — | 1,049 | 190 | 408 | 6,499 | 6,196 | 1,055 |
| 2012 | 4,487 | — | 1,859 | 943 | 0.85 | 1,099 | 77 | 1,022 | — | 1,380 | 154 | 1,201 | 5,243 | 6,291 | 1,110 |
| 2011 | 4,168 | — | 1,803 | 1,132 | 0.96 | 1,100 | 58 | 1,042 | — | 997 | 99 | 1,048 | 4,245 | 6,517 | 1,183 |
| 2010 | 3,706 | — | 1,377 | 653 | 0.52 | 668 | 49 | 619 | — | 605 | 182 | 466 | 3,618 | 6,225 | 1,253 |
| 2009 | 3,458 | — | 1,274 | 549 | 0.43 | 642 | 55 | 587 | — | — | 228 | 623 | 3,495 | 6,197 | 1,242 |
| 2008 | 3,382 | — | 1,064 | 317 | 0.34 | 573 | 102 | 471 | — | — | -66 | 94 | 3,331 | 5,536 | 941 |
| 2007 | 76 | — | -8 | -68 | -0.08 | 58 | 47 | 11 | — | — | 1 | 209 | — | 4,495 | 821 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.