MMarketMath

VZ

Slow growerQuality: Medium (49/100)1 red flag

Verizon · Communication Services · Integrated Telecommunication Services

$50.15

52w 38.39 – 51.68

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$208.4B

P/E

12.0

P/FCF

5.5

FCF yield

18.1%

ROE

16.2%

Shldr yield

5.6%

div 5.6% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $208.4B, the market is pricing in -10.5% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 5.7% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $136 · $155 · $193 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 3.7× across 19 years, VZ would trade near $33/share (25th–75th percentile: $16–$38); it trades at 5.6× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+0.3%

Rev 5y

+1.5%

Rev 10y

+0.5%

EPS 5y

−1.1%

EPS 10y

−0.7%

FCF 5y

−2.3%

FCF 10y

+5.7%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $93.5B
2008: $97.4B
2009: $107.8B
2010: $106.6B
2011: $110.9B
2012: $115.8B
2013: $120.5B
2014: $127.1B
2015: $131.6B
2016: $126.0B
2017: $126.0B
2018: $130.9B
2019: $131.9B
2020: $128.3B
2021: $133.6B
2022: $136.8B
2023: $134.0B
2024: $134.8B
2025: $138.2B
$0$50.0B$100.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $5.5B
2008: −$2.2B
2009: $4.9B
2010: $2.5B
2011: $2.4B
2012: $875.0M
2013: $11.5B
2014: $9.6B
2015: $17.9B
2016: $13.1B
2017: $30.1B
2018: $15.5B
2019: $19.3B
2020: $17.8B
2021: $22.1B
2022: $21.3B
2023: $11.6B
2024: $17.5B
2025: $17.2B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $9.3B
2008: $10.3B
2009: $14.5B
2010: $16.9B
2011: $13.5B
2012: $15.3B
2013: $22.2B
2014: $13.4B
2015: $21.3B
2016: $4.6B
2017: $7.1B
2018: $17.7B
2019: $35.7B
2020: $41.8B
2021: $39.5B
2022: $37.1B
2023: $37.5B
2024: $36.9B
2025: $37.1B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 2.9B
2008: 2.8B
2009: 2.8B
2010: 2.8B
2011: 2.8B
2012: 2.9B
2013: 2.9B
2014: 4.0B
2015: 4.1B
2016: 4.1B
2017: 4.1B
2018: 4.1B
2019: 4.1B
2020: 4.1B
2021: 4.2B
2022: 4.2B
2023: 4.2B
2024: 4.2B
2025: 4.2B
02.0B4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

0%20%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $7.6B
2008: $6.4B
2009: $5.3B
2010: $5.4B
2011: $5.6B
2012: $5.2B
2013: $6.1B
2014: $7.8B
2015: $13.7B
2016: $9.3B
2017: $9.5B
2018: $9.8B
2019: $10.0B
2020: $10.2B
2021: $10.4B
2022: $10.8B
2023: $11.0B
2024: $11.2B
2025: $11.5B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$50.0B$100.0B$150.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $32.6B
Q3'23: $33.3B
Q4'23: $35.1B
Q1'24: $33.0B
Q2'24: $32.8B
Q3'24: $33.3B
Q4'24: $35.7B
Q1'25: $33.5B
Q2'25: $34.5B
Q3'25: $33.8B
Q4'25: $36.4B
Q1'26: $34.4B
Q2'26: $34.3B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $4.6B
Q3'23: $4.8B
Q4'23: −$2.7B
Q1'24: $4.6B
Q2'24: $4.6B
Q3'24: $3.3B
Q4'24: $5.0B
Q1'25: $4.9B
Q2'25: $5.0B
Q3'25: $5.0B
Q4'25: $2.3B
Q1'26: $5.0B
Q2'26: $3.8B
−$2.0B$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$34.3B−0.7%$3.8B−23.3%0.92$10.4B
Q1'26$34.4B+2.9%$5.0B+3.4%1.20$8.0B
Q4'25 *$36.4B+2.0%$2.3B−53.2%0.56$9.1B
Q3'25$33.8B+1.5%$5.0B+49.7%1.17$11.3B
Q2'25$34.5B+5.2%$5.0B+8.9%1.18$9.0B
Q1'25$33.5B+1.5%$4.9B+6.0%1.15$7.8B
Q4'24 *$35.7B+1.6%$5.0B1.18$10.4B
Q3'24$33.3B−0.0%$3.3B−30.6%0.78$9.9B
Q2'24$32.8B+0.6%$4.6B−1.2%1.09$9.5B
Q1'24$33.0B+0.2%$4.6B−6.3%1.09$7.1B
Q4'23 *$35.1B−0.3%−$2.7B−141.1%-0.65$8.7B
Q3'23$33.3B−2.6%$4.8B−2.8%1.13$10.8B
Q2'23$32.6B−3.5%$4.6B−10.6%1.10$9.7B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+0.3%+1.5%+0.5%+1.7%
Operating cash flow−0.0%−2.3%−0.5%+0.7%
Free cash flow−0.0%−2.3%+5.7%+5.4%
EPS (diluted)−7.1%−1.1%−0.7%+10.6%
Equity+4.6%+8.8%+19.5%+1.3%
LT debt−0.3%+2.5%+3.1%+7.8%
Diluted shares+0.2%+0.4%+0.3%+2.7%
Stock price+20.6%+4.6%+5.1%+7.6%

$100, 3 years ago

$175vs $176 in SPY

20.6% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$125vs $181 in SPY

4.6% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$164vs $412 in SPY

5.1% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$299vs $813 in SPY

7.6% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$0.60

$20.7B created / $34.6B retained

Last 10 years

$0.80

$65.5B created / $81.7B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

15.1%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

11.4%

MC vs 10× OCF

0.55

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

3.8y

SBC / FCF

Owner earnings

$37.1B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

18.1%

Share count 5y

+2.1%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

79.2%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$1.48

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 29.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -8.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -2.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

16 of 25 checks pass · 64%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

3/7

  • Revenue growth

    1.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • EPS growth

    -1.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • FCF growth

    -2.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    -2.3% vs 1.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    12.4% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    21.2% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    16.2% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    15.1% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    26.9% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $37.1B vs NI $17.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    3.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail
  • Cash cushion

    14% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    1.32 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $105.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    23% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

1/3

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    2.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    31% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    18.1% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    12.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    -10.5% vs 5.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    5.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
2025138,19129,25917,1744.0637,13737,13711,48119,048139,532105,7414,231
2024134,78828,68617,5064.1436,91236,91211,2494,194121,381100,5754,223
2023133,97422,87711,6142.7537,47537,47511,0252,065137,70193,7994,215
2022136,83530,46721,2565.0637,14137,14110,8052,605140,67692,4634,204
2021133,61332,44822,0655.3239,53939,53910,4452,921143,42583,2004,150
2020128,29228,79817,8014.3041,76841,76810,23222,171123,17369,2724,142
2019131,86830,37819,2654.6535,74635,74610,0162,594100,71262,8354,140
2018130,86322,27815,5283.7634,33916,65817,6819,7722,745105,87354,7104,132
2017126,03427,42530,1017.3624,31817,2477,0719,47202,079113,64244,6874,089
2016125,98029,24913,1273.2121,68917,0594,6309,26204002,880105,43324,0324,086
2015131,62033,06017,8794.3739,02717,77521,2528,5385,1343004,470103,24017,8424,093
2014127,07919,5999,6252.4230,63117,19113,4407,80330010,598110,53613,6763,981
2013120,55031,96811,4974.0038,81816,60422,2145,93615340053,52889,65895,4162,874
2012115,84613,1608750.3131,48616,17515,3115,2307003,09347,61885,5332,862
2011110,87512,8802,4040.8529,78016,24413,5365,55550013,36250,30385,9082,839
2010106,56514,6452,5490.9033,36316,45816,9055,4125006,66845,25286,9122,833
2009107,80815,9784,8941.7231,39016,87214,5185,27105002,00955,05184,1432,841
200897,3542,612-2,193-0.7727,45217,13310,3194,9941,3684009,78246,95978,7912,849
200793,46915,5785,5211.9026,83917,5389,3014,7732,8431,15382,8692,902

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.