VRT
Vertiv · Industrials · Electrical Components & Equipment
$254.97
52w 118.70 – 379.94
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$98.2B
P/E
73.6
P/FCF
51.8
FCF yield
1.9%
ROE
33.8%
Shldr yield
0.1%
div 0.1% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $98.2B, the market is pricing in 20.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 63.0% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $75 · $168 · $242 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 34.3× across 6 years, VRT would trade near $188/share (25th–75th percentile: $168–$193); it trades at 46.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+21.6%
Rev 5y
+18.5%
Rev 10y
+13.2%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
+63.0%
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2017–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $3.3B | +24.1% | $497.8M | +53.5% | 1.27 | $1.1B |
| Q1'26 | $2.6B | +30.1% | $390.1M | +137.1% | 0.99 | $766.8M |
| Q4'25 * | $2.9B | +22.7% | $445.6M | +203.1% | 1.14 | $978.9M |
| Q3'25 | $2.7B | +29.0% | $398.5M | +125.7% | 1.02 | $508.7M |
| Q2'25 | $2.6B | +35.1% | $324.2M | +82.0% | 0.83 | $322.9M |
| Q1'25 | $2.0B | +24.2% | $164.5M | — | 0.42 | $303.3M |
| Q4'24 * | $2.3B | +25.8% | $147.0M | −36.8% | 0.38 | $425.2M |
| Q3'24 | $2.1B | +19.0% | $176.6M | +87.7% | 0.46 | $375.1M |
| Q2'24 | $2.0B | +12.6% | $178.1M | +114.1% | 0.46 | $381.5M |
| Q1'24 | $1.6B | +7.8% | −$5.9M | −111.7% | -0.02 | $137.5M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.9B | +12.7% | $232.6M | +774.4% | 0.61 | $356.2M |
| Q3'23 | $1.7B | +17.7% | $94.1M | +343.9% | 0.24 | $248.7M |
| Q2'23 | $1.7B | +23.9% | $83.2M | +309.9% | 0.22 | $253.6M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +21.6% | +18.5% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +77.9% | +58.9% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +92.6% | +63.0% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +79.3% | — | — | — |
| Equity | +39.8% | +50.4% | — | — |
| LT debt | −3.0% | +6.3% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +1.1% | +4.9% | — | — |
| Stock price | +86.6% | +55.5% | — | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$650vs $176 in SPY
86.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$909vs $181 in SPY
55.5% vs 12.6%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$28.21
$66.6B created / $2.4B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
30.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
4.64
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.5y
SBC / FCF
2.4%
Owner earnings
$1.8B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.9%
Share count 5y
+3.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
9.0%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.08
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 68.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 63.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 43.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 25 checks pass · 72%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/6
- pass
Revenue growth
18.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
63.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 8 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
6 of 9 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
5 of 9 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
58.9% vs 18.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
13.0% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
17.9% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
33.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
30.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
18.5% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.1B vs NI $1.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
60% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.73 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$3.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
5% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
3.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
4% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
1 of 9 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.9% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
73.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
20.7% vs 63.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10,230 | — | 1,830 | 1,333 | 3.41 | 2,114 | 220 | 1,894 | 67 | 0 | 46 | 1,728 | 2,892 | 3,941 | 391 |
| 2024 | 8,012 | — | 1,367 | 496 | 1.28 | 1,319 | 167 | 1,152 | 42 | 600 | 35 | 1,228 | 2,907 | 2,434 | 386 |
| 2023 | 6,863 | — | 872 | 460 | 1.19 | 901 | 128 | 773 | 10 | 0 | 25 | 780 | 2,919 | 2,015 | 386 |
| 2022 | 5,692 | — | 223 | 77 | -0.04 | -153 | 100 | -253 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 261 | 3,169 | 1,442 | 378 |
| 2021 | 4,998 | — | 260 | 120 | 0.33 | 211 | 73 | 138 | 4 | — | 23 | 439 | 2,951 | 1,418 | 360 |
| 2020 | 4,371 | — | 214 | -327 | -1.07 | 209 | 44 | 165 | 3 | — | 13 | 535 | 2,131 | 512 | 307 |
| 2019 | 4,431 | — | 206 | -141 | -0.46 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 0 | — | 0 | 224 | 3,467 | -705 | 307 |
| 2018 | 4,286 | — | — | -314 | -1.02 | -222 | 65 | -287 | 0 | — | 0 | 215 | — | -540 | 307 |
| 2017 | 0 | — | — | -0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 398 | — | -130 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.