MMarketMath

VRT

Fast growerQuality: High (78/100)1 red flag

Vertiv · Industrials · Electrical Components & Equipment

$254.97

52w 118.70 – 379.94

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$98.2B

P/E

73.6

P/FCF

51.8

FCF yield

1.9%

ROE

33.8%

Shldr yield

0.1%

div 0.1% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $98.2B, the market is pricing in 20.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 63.0% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $75 · $168 · $242 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 34.3× across 6 years, VRT would trade near $188/share (25th–75th percentile: $168–$193); it trades at 46.4× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+21.6%

Rev 5y

+18.5%

Rev 10y

+13.2%

EPS 5y

EPS 10y

FCF 5y

+63.0%

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2017–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2017: $0
2018: $4.3B
2019: $4.4B
2020: $4.4B
2021: $5.0B
2022: $5.7B
2023: $6.9B
2024: $8.0B
2025: $10.2B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
17
19
21
23
25

Net income

2017: −$1.3K
2018: −$314.0M
2019: −$140.8M
2020: −$327.3M
2021: $119.6M
2022: $76.6M
2023: $460.2M
2024: $495.8M
2025: $1.3B
$0$500.0M$1.0B
17
19
21
23
25

Free cash flow

2018: −$286.5M
2019: $9.9M
2020: $164.5M
2021: $137.5M
2022: −$252.8M
2023: $772.6M
2024: $1.2B
2025: $1.9B
$0$1.0B
17
19
21
23
25

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2018: 307.1M
2019: 307.1M
2020: 307.1M
2021: 360.1M
2022: 378.2M
2023: 386.2M
2024: 386.3M
2025: 390.7M
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
17
19
21
23
25

Margins

0%10%20%1719212325
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2018: $0
2019: $0
2020: $3.3M
2021: $3.8M
2022: $3.8M
2023: $9.5M
2024: $642.1M
2025: $66.6M
$0$200.0M$400.0M$600.0M
17
19
21
23
25

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B1719212325
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $1.7B
Q3'23: $1.7B
Q4'23: $1.9B
Q1'24: $1.6B
Q2'24: $2.0B
Q3'24: $2.1B
Q4'24: $2.3B
Q1'25: $2.0B
Q2'25: $2.6B
Q3'25: $2.7B
Q4'25: $2.9B
Q1'26: $2.6B
Q2'26: $3.3B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $83.2M
Q3'23: $94.1M
Q4'23: $232.6M
Q1'24: −$5.9M
Q2'24: $178.1M
Q3'24: $176.6M
Q4'24: $147.0M
Q1'25: $164.5M
Q2'25: $324.2M
Q3'25: $398.5M
Q4'25: $445.6M
Q1'26: $390.1M
Q2'26: $497.8M
$0$200.0M$400.0M
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$3.3B+24.1%$497.8M+53.5%1.27$1.1B
Q1'26$2.6B+30.1%$390.1M+137.1%0.99$766.8M
Q4'25 *$2.9B+22.7%$445.6M+203.1%1.14$978.9M
Q3'25$2.7B+29.0%$398.5M+125.7%1.02$508.7M
Q2'25$2.6B+35.1%$324.2M+82.0%0.83$322.9M
Q1'25$2.0B+24.2%$164.5M0.42$303.3M
Q4'24 *$2.3B+25.8%$147.0M−36.8%0.38$425.2M
Q3'24$2.1B+19.0%$176.6M+87.7%0.46$375.1M
Q2'24$2.0B+12.6%$178.1M+114.1%0.46$381.5M
Q1'24$1.6B+7.8%−$5.9M−111.7%-0.02$137.5M
Q4'23 *$1.9B+12.7%$232.6M+774.4%0.61$356.2M
Q3'23$1.7B+17.7%$94.1M+343.9%0.24$248.7M
Q2'23$1.7B+23.9%$83.2M+309.9%0.22$253.6M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+21.6%+18.5%
Operating cash flow+77.9%+58.9%
Free cash flow+92.6%+63.0%
EPS (diluted)+79.3%
Equity+39.8%+50.4%
LT debt−3.0%+6.3%
Diluted shares+1.1%+4.9%
Stock price+86.6%+55.5%

$100, 3 years ago

$650vs $176 in SPY

86.6% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$909vs $181 in SPY

55.5% vs 12.6%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$28.21

$66.6B created / $2.4B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

30.9%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

2.1%

MC vs 10× OCF

4.64

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.5y

SBC / FCF

2.4%

Owner earnings

$1.8B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

1.9%

Share count 5y

+3.5%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

9.0%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.08

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 68.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 63.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 43.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

18 of 25 checks pass · 72%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

4/6

  • Revenue growth

    18.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • FCF growth

    63.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 8 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    6 of 9 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail
  • Profitable every year

    5 of 9 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    fail
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    58.9% vs 18.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    13.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    17.9% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    33.8% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    30.9% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    18.5% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $2.1B vs NI $1.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

5/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    60% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    0.73 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $3.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    5% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

2/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    3.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    4% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    1 of 9 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

1/4

  • FCF yield

    1.9% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    73.6 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    20.7% vs 63.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    0.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202510,2301,8301,3333.412,1142201,894670461,7282,8923,941391
20248,0121,3674961.281,3191671,15242600351,2282,9072,434386
20236,8638724601.19901128773100257802,9192,015386
20225,69222377-0.04-153100-25340252613,1691,442378
20214,9982601200.33211731384234392,9511,418360
20204,371214-327-1.07209441653135352,131512307
20194,431206-141-0.46584810002243,467-705307
20184,286-314-1.02-22265-28700215-540307
20170-0398-130

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.