VLO
Valero Energy · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$346.00
52w 144.30 – 353.00
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$99.6B
P/E
42.9
P/FCF
17.3
FCF yield
5.8%
ROE
9.9%
Shldr yield
4.0%
div 1.4% + bb 2.6%
What today's price assumes
At $99.6B, the market is pricing in 5.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 5.7% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $308 · $349 · $435 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 5.3× across 10 years, VLO would trade near $107/share (25th–75th percentile: $99–$128); it trades at 17.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−11.4%
Rev 5y
+13.6%
Rev 10y
+5.5%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+4.9%
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
+5.7%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $44.5B | +48.8% | $3.7B | +421.0% | 12.62 | $5.6B |
| Q1'26 | $32.4B | +7.0% | $1.3B | — | 4.22 | $1.4B |
| Q4'25 * | $30.4B | −1.2% | $1.1B | +303.6% | 3.66 | $2.1B |
| Q3'25 | $32.2B | −2.2% | $1.1B | +200.8% | 3.53 | $1.9B |
| Q2'25 | $29.9B | −13.3% | $714.0M | −18.9% | 2.28 | $936.0M |
| Q1'25 | $30.3B | −4.7% | −$595.0M | −147.8% | -1.90 | $952.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $30.8B | −13.2% | $281.0M | −76.6% | 0.98 | $1.1B |
| Q3'24 | $32.9B | −14.4% | $364.0M | −86.1% | 1.14 | $1.3B |
| Q2'24 | $34.5B | −0.1% | $880.0M | −54.7% | 2.71 | $2.5B |
| Q1'24 | $31.8B | −12.8% | $1.2B | −59.4% | 3.75 | $1.8B |
| Q4'23 * | $35.4B | −15.2% | $1.2B | −61.4% | 3.74 | $1.2B |
| Q3'23 | $38.4B | −13.6% | $2.6B | −6.9% | 7.49 | $3.3B |
| Q2'23 | $34.5B | −33.2% | $1.9B | −58.6% | 5.40 | $1.5B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −11.4% | +13.6% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | −22.6% | +43.8% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | −16.0% | +13.8% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | −36.1% | +4.4% | — | — |
| Equity | +0.2% | +4.8% | — | — |
| LT debt | −3.7% | −8.7% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −7.9% | −5.4% | — | — |
| Stock price | +42.5% | +43.5% | +24.8% | +24.8% |
$100, 3 years ago
$289vs $176 in SPY
42.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$609vs $181 in SPY
43.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$917vs $412 in SPY
24.8% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,786vs $813 in SPY
24.8% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$1.91
$36.4B created / $19.0B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
18.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.73
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.4y
SBC / FCF
2.0%
Owner earnings
$5.7B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.7%
Share count 5y
−4.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.09
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
16 of 24 checks pass · 67%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/5
- pass
Revenue growth
13.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
4 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
43.8% vs 13.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
2/6
- fail
Net margin
1.9% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
2.6% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
9.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
18.2% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
4.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.8B vs NI $2.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
57% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.35 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$23.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
17% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-4.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
69% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
42.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
5.7% vs 5.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Revenue declining
Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 122,687 | — | 3,181 | 2,348 | 7.57 | 5,826 | — | 5,826 | 1,405 | 2,598 | 117 | 4,688 | 8,261 | 23,725 | 309 |
| 2024 | 129,881 | — | 3,755 | 2,770 | 8.58 | 6,683 | 2,057 | 4,626 | 1,384 | 2,875 | 100 | 4,657 | 8,085 | 24,512 | 322 |
| 2023 | 144,766 | — | 11,858 | 8,835 | 24.92 | 9,229 | 1,916 | 7,313 | 1,452 | 5,136 | 107 | 5,424 | 9,218 | 26,346 | 353 |
| 2022 | 176,383 | — | 15,690 | 11,528 | 29.04 | 12,574 | 2,737 | 9,837 | 1,562 | 4,577 | 103 | 4,862 | 9,241 | 23,561 | 396 |
| 2021 | 113,977 | — | 2,130 | 930 | 2.27 | 5,859 | 2,458 | 3,401 | 1,602 | 27 | 88 | 4,122 | 11,950 | 18,430 | 407 |
| 2020 | 64,912 | — | -1,579 | -1,421 | -3.50 | 948 | 2,436 | -1,488 | 1,600 | 156 | 80 | 3,313 | 13,013 | 18,801 | 407 |
| 2019 | 108,324 | — | 3,836 | 2,422 | 5.84 | 5,531 | 2,846 | 2,685 | 1,492 | 777 | 89 | 2,583 | 8,881 | 21,803 | 414 |
| 2018 | 117,033 | — | 4,572 | 3,122 | 7.29 | 4,371 | 3,376 | 995 | 1,369 | 1,708 | 86 | 2,982 | 8,503 | 21,667 | 428 |
| 2017 | 93,980 | — | 3,563 | 4,065 | 9.16 | 5,482 | 1,353 | 4,129 | 1,242 | 1,372 | 77 | 5,850 | 8,310 | 21,991 | 444 |
| 2016 | 75,659 | — | 3,534 | 2,289 | 4.94 | 4,820 | 1,278 | 3,542 | 1,111 | 1,336 | 68 | 4,816 | 7,926 | 20,024 | 464 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.