V
Visa Inc. · Financials · Transaction & Payment Processing Services
$389.27
52w 293.89 – 391.81
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$182.7B
P/E
8.7
P/FCF
8.1
FCF yield
12.4%
ROE
52.9%
Shldr yield
13.1%
div 2.7% + bb 10.5%
What today's price assumes
At $182.7B, the market is pricing in -4.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 13.3% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $701 · $1,391 · $1,734 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+10.9%
Rev 5y
+12.9%
Rev 10y
+11.2%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
+17.3%
FCF 10y
+13.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $11.2B | +17.1% | $6.0B | +31.5% | — | $3.0B |
| Q1'26 | $10.9B | +14.6% | $5.9B | +14.3% | — | $6.8B |
| Q4'25 * | $10.7B | +11.5% | $5.1B | −4.3% | — | $6.2B |
| Q3'25 | $10.2B | +14.3% | $5.3B | +8.2% | — | $6.7B |
| Q2'25 | $9.6B | +9.3% | $4.6B | −1.8% | — | $4.7B |
| Q1'25 | $9.5B | +10.1% | $5.1B | +4.7% | — | $5.4B |
| Q4'24 * | $9.6B | +11.7% | $5.3B | +13.6% | — | $6.7B |
| Q3'24 | $8.9B | +9.6% | $4.9B | +17.2% | — | $5.1B |
| Q2'24 | $8.8B | +9.9% | $4.7B | +9.5% | — | $4.5B |
| Q1'24 | $8.6B | +8.8% | $4.9B | +17.0% | — | $3.6B |
| Q4'23 * | $8.6B | +10.6% | $4.7B | +18.8% | — | $6.9B |
| Q3'23 | $8.1B | +11.7% | $4.2B | +21.8% | — | $5.8B |
| Q2'23 | $8.0B | +11.1% | $4.3B | +16.7% | — | $3.9B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10.9% | +12.9% | +11.2% | +11.3% |
| Operating cash flow | +7.0% | +17.2% | +13.4% | +15.4% |
| Free cash flow | +6.5% | +17.3% | +13.3% | +15.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | — |
| Equity | +2.1% | +0.9% | +2.4% | +2.8% |
| LT debt | −1.0% | −1.4% | +53.4% | +53.4% |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — |
| Stock price | +19.1% | +13.8% | +17.6% | +21.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$169vs $192 in SPY
19.1% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$191vs $181 in SPY
13.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$505vs $428 in SPY
17.6% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,857vs $803 in SPY
21.5% vs 14.9%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
40.1%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
13.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.76
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.9y
SBC / FCF
4.2%
Owner earnings
$20.7B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
11.8%
Share count 5y
—
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
10.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.08
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
23 of 24 checks pass · 96%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/6
- pass
Revenue growth
12.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
17.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
17.2% vs 12.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
50.1% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
60.0% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
52.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
40.1% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
53.9% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $23.1B vs NI $20.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
88% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.52 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$37.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
2% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/3
- na
Share count flat or shrinking
— · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
106% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
12.4% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
8.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-4.9% vs 13.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
13.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40,000 | — | 23,994 | 20,058 | — | 23,059 | 1,482 | 21,577 | 4,634 | 18,316 | 897 | 17,164 | 19,602 | 37,909 | — |
| 2024 | 35,926 | — | 23,595 | 19,743 | — | 19,950 | 1,257 | 18,693 | 4,217 | 16,713 | 850 | 11,975 | 20,836 | 39,137 | — |
| 2023 | 32,653 | — | 21,000 | 17,273 | — | 20,755 | 1,059 | 19,696 | 3,751 | 12,101 | 765 | 16,286 | 20,463 | 38,733 | — |
| 2022 | 29,310 | — | 18,813 | 14,957 | — | 18,849 | 970 | 17,879 | 3,203 | 11,589 | 602 | 15,689 | 20,200 | 35,581 | — |
| 2021 | 24,105 | — | 15,804 | 12,311 | — | 15,227 | 705 | 14,522 | 2,798 | 8,676 | 542 | 16,487 | 19,978 | 37,589 | — |
| 2020 | 21,846 | — | 14,081 | 10,866 | — | 10,440 | 736 | 9,704 | 2,664 | 8,114 | 416 | 16,289 | 21,071 | 36,210 | — |
| 2019 | 22,977 | — | 15,001 | 12,080 | — | 12,784 | 756 | 12,028 | 2,269 | 8,607 | 407 | 7,838 | 16,729 | 34,684 | — |
| 2018 | 20,609 | — | 12,954 | 10,301 | — | 12,941 | 718 | 12,223 | 1,918 | 7,192 | 327 | 8,162 | 16,630 | 34,006 | — |
| 2017 | 18,358 | — | 12,144 | 6,699 | — | 9,317 | 707 | 8,610 | 1,579 | 6,891 | 235 | 9,874 | 16,618 | 32,760 | — |
| 2016 | 15,082 | — | 7,883 | 5,991 | — | 5,574 | 523 | 5,051 | 1,350 | — | 221 | 5,619 | 15,882 | 32,912 | — |
| 2015 | 13,880 | — | 9,064 | 6,328 | — | 6,584 | 414 | 6,170 | 1,177 | 2,910 | 187 | 3,518 | 0 | 29,842 | — |
| 2014 | 12,702 | — | 7,697 | 5,438 | — | 7,205 | 553 | 6,652 | 1,006 | 4,118 | 172 | 1,971 | — | 27,413 | — |
| 2013 | 11,778 | — | 7,239 | 4,980 | — | 3,022 | 471 | 2,551 | 864 | 5,365 | 179 | 2,186 | — | 26,870 | — |
| 2012 | 10,421 | — | 2,139 | 2,144 | — | 5,009 | 376 | 4,633 | 595 | 710 | 147 | 2,074 | — | 27,630 | — |
| 2011 | 9,188 | — | 5,456 | 3,650 | — | 3,872 | 353 | 3,519 | 423 | 2,024 | 154 | 2,127 | — | 26,437 | — |
| 2010 | 8,065 | — | 4,589 | 2,966 | — | 2,691 | 241 | 2,450 | 368 | 1,000 | 131 | 3,867 | 32 | 25,011 | — |
| 2009 | 6,911 | — | 3,538 | 2,353 | — | 558 | 306 | 252 | 318 | 2,646 | 115 | 4,617 | 44 | 23,189 | — |
| 2008 | 6,263 | — | 1,232 | 804 | — | 531 | 415 | 116 | 93 | 13,446 | 74 | 4,979 | 55 | 21,141 | — |
| 2007 | 3,590 | — | -1,449 | -1,076 | — | 505 | 160 | 345 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 275 | — | -501 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.