USB
U.S. Bancorp · Financials · Diversified Banks
$57.42
52w 45.02 – 66.08
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$89.5B
P/E
11.7
P/FCF
11.1
FCF yield
9.0%
ROE
11.6%
Shldr yield
4.1%
div 3.6% + bb 0.6%
What today's price assumes
At $89.5B, the market is pricing in -0.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -1.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $54 · $54 · $68 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.2× across 11 years, USB would trade near $32/share (25th–75th percentile: $27–$52); it trades at 11.2× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+5.6%
Rev 5y
+3.4%
Rev 10y
+3.5%
EPS 5y
+1.6%
EPS 10y
+3.9%
FCF 5y
−3.9%
FCF 10y
−1.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2012–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $7.7B | +10.1% | $2.2B | +19.9% | 1.35 | $4.8B |
| Q1'26 | $7.3B | +4.7% | $1.9B | +13.8% | 1.18 | $1.3B |
| Q4'25 * | $7.4B | +5.1% | $2.0B | +23.0% | 1.26 | $2.8B |
| Q3'25 | $7.3B | +6.8% | $2.0B | +16.7% | 1.22 | $3.5B |
| Q2'25 | $7.0B | +2.0% | $1.8B | +13.2% | 1.11 | $1.9B |
| Q1'25 | $7.0B | +3.6% | $1.7B | +29.6% | 1.03 | −$308.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $7.0B | +3.7% | $1.7B | +96.3% | 1.01 | $4.8B |
| Q3'24 | $6.9B | −2.4% | $1.7B | +12.5% | 1.03 | $972.0M |
| Q2'24 | $6.9B | −4.3% | $1.6B | +17.8% | 0.97 | $2.9B |
| Q1'24 | $6.7B | −6.4% | $1.3B | −22.3% | 0.78 | $2.7B |
| Q4'23 * | $6.8B | — | $847.0M | −8.4% | 0.48 | $362.0M |
| Q3'23 | $7.0B | +11.2% | $1.5B | −15.9% | 0.91 | $3.9B |
| Q2'23 | $7.2B | — | $1.4B | −11.1% | 0.84 | $3.3B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.6% | +3.4% | +3.5% | — |
| Operating cash flow | −27.7% | −3.9% | −1.0% | — |
| Free cash flow | −27.7% | −3.9% | −1.0% | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +7.8% | +1.6% | +3.9% | — |
| Equity | +8.7% | +3.6% | +3.5% | — |
| LT debt | +15.1% | +5.7% | +6.6% | — |
| Diluted shares | +1.5% | −0.7% | −1.3% | — |
| Stock price | +26.6% | +3.3% | +6.3% | +9.0% |
$100, 3 years ago
$203vs $192 in SPY
26.6% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$117vs $181 in SPY
3.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$184vs $428 in SPY
6.3% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$362vs $803 in SPY
9.0% vs 14.9%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$1.84
$24.1B created / $13.1B retained
Last 10 years
$1.41
$37.3B created / $26.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
6.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
7.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.11
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
7.6y
SBC / FCF
2.9%
Owner earnings
$7.7B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
8.7%
Share count 5y
−1.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Checklist
16 of 24 checks pass · 67%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
3/7
- fail
Revenue growth
3.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
1.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-3.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-3.9% vs 3.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/5
- pass
Net margin
26.4% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
11.6% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
6.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
27.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $8.0B vs NI $7.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
7.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
77% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.93 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$65.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
46% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
9.0% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
11.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
-0.3% vs -1.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28,656 | — | — | 7,570 | 4.62 | 7,970 | — | 7,970 | 3,168 | 489 | 235 | 46,890 | 60,764 | 65,193 | 1,558 |
| 2024 | 27,455 | — | — | 6,299 | 3.79 | 11,350 | — | 11,350 | 3,092 | 173 | 232 | 56,502 | 58,002 | 58,578 | 1,561 |
| 2023 | 28,144 | — | — | 5,429 | 3.27 | 8,393 | — | 8,393 | 2,970 | 62 | 224 | 61,192 | 51,480 | 55,306 | 1,543 |
| 2022 | 24,302 | — | — | 5,825 | 3.69 | 21,119 | — | 21,119 | 2,776 | 69 | 202 | 53,542 | 39,829 | 50,766 | 1,490 |
| 2018 | 22,637 | — | — | 7,096 | 4.14 | 10,564 | — | 10,564 | 2,092 | 2,822 | 174 | — | 41,340 | 51,029 | 1,638 |
| 2017 | 21,902 | — | — | 6,218 | 3.51 | 6,472 | — | 6,472 | 1,928 | 2,631 | 163 | — | 32,259 | 49,040 | 1,683 |
| 2016 | 21,308 | — | — | 5,888 | 3.24 | 5,336 | — | 5,336 | 1,810 | 2,556 | 150 | — | 33,323 | 47,298 | 1,724 |
| 2015 | 20,306 | — | — | 5,879 | 3.16 | 8,782 | — | 8,782 | 1,777 | 2,190 | 125 | — | 32,078 | 46,131 | 1,772 |
| 2014 | 20,161 | — | — | 5,851 | 3.08 | 5,332 | — | 5,332 | 1,726 | 2,200 | 125 | — | 32,260 | 43,479 | 1,813 |
| 2013 | 19,602 | — | — | 5,836 | 3.00 | 11,446 | — | 11,446 | 1,576 | 2,282 | 129 | — | 20,049 | 41,113 | 1,849 |
| 2012 | 20,288 | — | — | 5,647 | 2.84 | 7,958 | — | 7,958 | 1,347 | 1,856 | 129 | 8,252 | 25,516 | 38,998 | 1,896 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.