MMarketMath

URI

Fast growerQuality: High (86/100)1 red flag

United Rentals · Industrials · Trading Companies & Distributors

$1,083.56

52w 701.59 – 1,179.18

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$67.9B

P/E

27.5

P/FCF

13.2

FCF yield

7.6%

ROE

27.8%

Shldr yield

3.5%

div 0.7% + bb 2.9%

What today's price assumes

At $67.9B, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 10.6% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $1,263 · $2,051 · $2,558 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 5.5× across 17 years, URI would trade near $457/share (25th–75th percentile: $293–$560); it trades at 13.1× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+13.9%

Rev 5y

+13.1%

Rev 10y

−4.4%

EPS 5y

+25.9%

EPS 10y

+20.3%

FCF 5y

+16.1%

FCF 10y

+10.6%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2009: $2.4B
2010: $2.2B
2011: $2.6B
2012: $4.1B
2013: $5.0B
2014: $5.7B
2015: $5.8B
2016: $5.8B
2017: $6.6B
2018: $8.0B
2019: $2.1B
2020: $2.0B
2021: $2.3B
2022: $2.5B
2023: $3.4B
2024: $3.6B
2025: $3.7B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Net income

2009: −$62.0M
2010: −$26.0M
2011: $101.0M
2012: $75.0M
2013: $387.0M
2014: $540.0M
2015: $585.0M
2016: $566.0M
2017: $1.3B
2018: $1.1B
2019: $1.2B
2020: $890.0M
2021: $1.4B
2022: $2.1B
2023: $2.4B
2024: $2.6B
2025: $2.5B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Free cash flow

2009: $387.0M
2010: $424.0M
2011: $576.0M
2012: $624.0M
2013: $1.4B
2014: $1.7B
2015: $1.9B
2016: $1.8B
2017: $2.1B
2018: $2.7B
2019: $2.8B
2020: $2.5B
2021: $491.0M
2022: $743.0M
2023: $840.0M
2024: $416.0M
2025: $5.2B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2009: 60.1M
2010: 60.5M
2011: 73.3M
2012: 94.8M
2013: 106.3M
2014: 105.0M
2015: 96.4M
2016: 87.8M
2017: 85.6M
2018: 83.5M
2019: 77.7M
2020: 72.9M
2021: 72.8M
2022: 71.0M
2023: 68.7M
2024: 66.6M
2025: 64.6M
050.0M100.0M
09
12
15
18
21
24

Margins

0%100%200%091215182124
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2009: $1.0M
2010: $1.0M
2011: $7.0M
2012: $131.0M
2013: $115.0M
2014: $613.0M
2015: $789.0M
2016: $528.0M
2017: $56.0M
2018: $817.0M
2019: $870.0M
2020: $286.0M
2021: $34.0M
2022: $1.1B
2023: $1.5B
2024: $2.0B
2025: $2.4B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B091215182124
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'23: $802.0M
Q2'23: $852.0M
Q3'23: $842.0M
Q4'23: $3.7B
Q1'24: $825.0M
Q2'24: $870.0M
Q3'24: $874.0M
Q4'24: $4.1B
Q1'25: $893.0M
Q2'25: $872.0M
Q3'25: $938.0M
Q4'25: $4.2B
Q1'26: $929.0M
$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
23
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q1'23: $451.0M
Q2'23: $591.0M
Q3'23: $703.0M
Q4'23: $679.0M
Q1'24: $542.0M
Q2'24: $636.0M
Q3'24: $708.0M
Q4'24: $689.0M
Q1'25: $518.0M
Q2'25: $622.0M
Q3'25: $701.0M
Q4'25: $653.0M
Q1'26: $531.0M
$0$200.0M$400.0M$600.0M
23
23
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'26$929.0M+4.0%$531.0M+2.5%8.43$1.5B
Q4'25$4.2B+2.8%$653.0M−5.2%10.27$1.3B
Q3'25$938.0M+7.3%$701.0M−1.0%10.91$1.2B
Q2'25$872.0M+0.2%$622.0M−2.2%9.59$1.3B
Q1'25$893.0M+8.2%$518.0M−4.4%7.91$1.4B
Q4'24$4.1B+9.8%$689.0M+1.5%10.47$1.0B
Q3'24$874.0M+3.8%$708.0M+0.7%10.70$1.2B
Q2'24$870.0M+2.1%$636.0M+7.6%9.54$1.3B
Q1'24$825.0M+2.9%$542.0M+20.2%8.04$1.0B
Q4'23$3.7B+13.1%$679.0M+6.3%10.01$1.4B
Q3'23$842.0M+45.7%$703.0M+16.0%10.29$1.1B
Q2'23$852.0M+53.2%$591.0M+19.9%8.58$1.3B
Q1'23$802.0M+44.8%$451.0M+22.9%6.47$939.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+13.9%+13.1%−4.4%+3.4%
Operating cash flow+5.4%+14.3%+10.0%+17.7%
Free cash flow+91.2%+16.1%+10.6%+18.2%
EPS (diluted)+9.2%+25.9%+20.3%
Equity+8.3%+14.6%+19.8%
LT debt+7.7%+8.0%+5.7%+12.1%
Diluted shares−3.1%−2.4%−3.9%+0.4%
Stock price+32.6%+26.1%+29.9%+32.4%

$100, 3 years ago

$233vs $176 in SPY

32.6% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$319vs $181 in SPY

26.1% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$1,365vs $412 in SPY

29.9% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$6,736vs $813 in SPY

32.4% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$3.43

$33.2B created / $9.7B retained

Last 10 years

$3.11

$45.9B created / $14.8B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

22.3%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

6.3%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.32

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

2.8y

SBC / FCF

2.6%

Owner earnings

$5.1B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

7.4%

Share count 5y

+0.5%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 38.6% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 29.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 11.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

22 of 26 checks pass · 85%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

7/7

  • Revenue growth

    13.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    25.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    16.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    14.3% vs 13.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/7

  • Net margin

    67.5% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    107.5% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    166.3% vs 199.8% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    fail
  • Return on equity

    27.8% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    22.3% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    140.5% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $5.2B vs NI $2.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    2.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    3% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    1.59 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    fail
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $9.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    0.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    47% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

3/4

  • FCF yield

    7.6% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    27.5 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    2.0% vs 10.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    3.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Margin compression

Gross margin has fallen by more than 5 points over the last three years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
20253,6956,1443,9732,49438.615,1905,1904641,96913445914,3028,96865
20243,5886,1504,0652,57538.694,5464,1304164341,57111245713,4728,62267
20233,3955,8133,8272,42435.284,7043,8648404061,0709436311,5828,13069
20222,5014,9963,2322,10529.654,4333,69074301,06812710611,4477,06271
20212,2563,8532,2771,38619.043,6893,1984910341191449,7545,99173
20201,9943,1831,80089012.202,6581972,461286702029,7554,54573
20192,0633,6702,1521,17415.113,0242182,806870615211,5163,83078
20188,0473,3641,9511,09613.122,8531852,6688171024311,8343,40384
20176,6412,7691,5071,34615.732,2091202,08956873529,5163,10686
20165,7622,4031,4155666.451,941931,848528453127,8431,64888
20155,8172,4801,5185856.071,9951021,893789491798,2061,47696
20145,6852,4321,3915405.151,8011201,681613741587,9921,796105
20134,9551,9871,0783873.641,5511041,447115461757,1371,828106
20124,1171,587591750.7972197624131321067,2781,54395
20112,6118983961011.3861236576712362,5926473
20102,237658197-26-0.4445228424182032,576-2060
20092,358610114-62-1.02438513871816960

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.