URI
United Rentals · Industrials · Trading Companies & Distributors
$1,083.56
52w 701.59 – 1,179.18
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$67.9B
P/E
27.5
P/FCF
13.2
FCF yield
7.6%
ROE
27.8%
Shldr yield
3.5%
div 0.7% + bb 2.9%
What today's price assumes
At $67.9B, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 10.6% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $1,263 · $2,051 · $2,558 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 5.5× across 17 years, URI would trade near $457/share (25th–75th percentile: $293–$560); it trades at 13.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+13.9%
Rev 5y
+13.1%
Rev 10y
−4.4%
EPS 5y
+25.9%
EPS 10y
+20.3%
FCF 5y
+16.1%
FCF 10y
+10.6%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $929.0M | +4.0% | $531.0M | +2.5% | 8.43 | $1.5B |
| Q4'25 | $4.2B | +2.8% | $653.0M | −5.2% | 10.27 | $1.3B |
| Q3'25 | $938.0M | +7.3% | $701.0M | −1.0% | 10.91 | $1.2B |
| Q2'25 | $872.0M | +0.2% | $622.0M | −2.2% | 9.59 | $1.3B |
| Q1'25 | $893.0M | +8.2% | $518.0M | −4.4% | 7.91 | $1.4B |
| Q4'24 | $4.1B | +9.8% | $689.0M | +1.5% | 10.47 | $1.0B |
| Q3'24 | $874.0M | +3.8% | $708.0M | +0.7% | 10.70 | $1.2B |
| Q2'24 | $870.0M | +2.1% | $636.0M | +7.6% | 9.54 | $1.3B |
| Q1'24 | $825.0M | +2.9% | $542.0M | +20.2% | 8.04 | $1.0B |
| Q4'23 | $3.7B | +13.1% | $679.0M | +6.3% | 10.01 | $1.4B |
| Q3'23 | $842.0M | +45.7% | $703.0M | +16.0% | 10.29 | $1.1B |
| Q2'23 | $852.0M | +53.2% | $591.0M | +19.9% | 8.58 | $1.3B |
| Q1'23 | $802.0M | +44.8% | $451.0M | +22.9% | 6.47 | $939.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +13.9% | +13.1% | −4.4% | +3.4% |
| Operating cash flow | +5.4% | +14.3% | +10.0% | +17.7% |
| Free cash flow | +91.2% | +16.1% | +10.6% | +18.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | +9.2% | +25.9% | +20.3% | — |
| Equity | +8.3% | +14.6% | +19.8% | — |
| LT debt | +7.7% | +8.0% | +5.7% | +12.1% |
| Diluted shares | −3.1% | −2.4% | −3.9% | +0.4% |
| Stock price | +32.6% | +26.1% | +29.9% | +32.4% |
$100, 3 years ago
$233vs $176 in SPY
32.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$319vs $181 in SPY
26.1% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,365vs $412 in SPY
29.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$6,736vs $813 in SPY
32.4% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$3.43
$33.2B created / $9.7B retained
Last 10 years
$3.11
$45.9B created / $14.8B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
22.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
6.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.32
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.8y
SBC / FCF
2.6%
Owner earnings
$5.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
7.4%
Share count 5y
+0.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
—
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 38.6% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 29.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 11.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
22 of 26 checks pass · 85%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
13.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
25.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
16.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
14.3% vs 13.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
67.5% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
107.5% · ≥ 10%
- fail
Gross margin stable or rising
166.3% vs 199.8% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
27.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
22.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
140.5% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.2B vs NI $2.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
3% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
1.59 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$9.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
0.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
47% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
7.6% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
27.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
2.0% vs 10.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Margin compression
Gross margin has fallen by more than 5 points over the last three years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3,695 | 6,144 | 3,973 | 2,494 | 38.61 | 5,190 | — | 5,190 | 464 | 1,969 | 134 | 459 | 14,302 | 8,968 | 65 |
| 2024 | 3,588 | 6,150 | 4,065 | 2,575 | 38.69 | 4,546 | 4,130 | 416 | 434 | 1,571 | 112 | 457 | 13,472 | 8,622 | 67 |
| 2023 | 3,395 | 5,813 | 3,827 | 2,424 | 35.28 | 4,704 | 3,864 | 840 | 406 | 1,070 | 94 | 363 | 11,582 | 8,130 | 69 |
| 2022 | 2,501 | 4,996 | 3,232 | 2,105 | 29.65 | 4,433 | 3,690 | 743 | 0 | 1,068 | 127 | 106 | 11,447 | 7,062 | 71 |
| 2021 | 2,256 | 3,853 | 2,277 | 1,386 | 19.04 | 3,689 | 3,198 | 491 | 0 | 34 | 119 | 144 | 9,754 | 5,991 | 73 |
| 2020 | 1,994 | 3,183 | 1,800 | 890 | 12.20 | 2,658 | 197 | 2,461 | — | 286 | 70 | 202 | 9,755 | 4,545 | 73 |
| 2019 | 2,063 | 3,670 | 2,152 | 1,174 | 15.11 | 3,024 | 218 | 2,806 | — | 870 | 61 | 52 | 11,516 | 3,830 | 78 |
| 2018 | 8,047 | 3,364 | 1,951 | 1,096 | 13.12 | 2,853 | 185 | 2,668 | — | 817 | 102 | 43 | 11,834 | 3,403 | 84 |
| 2017 | 6,641 | 2,769 | 1,507 | 1,346 | 15.73 | 2,209 | 120 | 2,089 | — | 56 | 87 | 352 | 9,516 | 3,106 | 86 |
| 2016 | 5,762 | 2,403 | 1,415 | 566 | 6.45 | 1,941 | 93 | 1,848 | — | 528 | 45 | 312 | 7,843 | 1,648 | 88 |
| 2015 | 5,817 | 2,480 | 1,518 | 585 | 6.07 | 1,995 | 102 | 1,893 | — | 789 | 49 | 179 | 8,206 | 1,476 | 96 |
| 2014 | 5,685 | 2,432 | 1,391 | 540 | 5.15 | 1,801 | 120 | 1,681 | — | 613 | 74 | 158 | 7,992 | 1,796 | 105 |
| 2013 | 4,955 | 1,987 | 1,078 | 387 | 3.64 | 1,551 | 104 | 1,447 | — | 115 | 46 | 175 | 7,137 | 1,828 | 106 |
| 2012 | 4,117 | 1,587 | 591 | 75 | 0.79 | 721 | 97 | 624 | — | 131 | 32 | 106 | 7,278 | 1,543 | 95 |
| 2011 | 2,611 | 898 | 396 | 101 | 1.38 | 612 | 36 | 576 | — | 7 | 12 | 36 | 2,592 | 64 | 73 |
| 2010 | 2,237 | 658 | 197 | -26 | -0.44 | 452 | 28 | 424 | — | 1 | 8 | 203 | 2,576 | -20 | 60 |
| 2009 | 2,358 | 610 | 114 | -62 | -1.02 | 438 | 51 | 387 | — | 1 | 8 | 169 | — | — | 60 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.