UNP
Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials · Rail Transportation
$309.86
52w 210.84 – 315.99
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$184.1B
P/E
25.6
P/FCF
33.3
FCF yield
3.0%
ROE
38.7%
Shldr yield
3.2%
div 1.8% + bb 1.5%
What today's price assumes
At $184.1B, the market is pricing in 14.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 7.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $141 · $181 · $226 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 11.1× across 19 years, UNP would trade near $173/share (25th–75th percentile: $112–$208); it trades at 19.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−0.5%
Rev 5y
+4.6%
Rev 10y
+1.2%
EPS 5y
+8.7%
EPS 10y
+8.1%
FCF 5y
−0.4%
FCF 10y
+7.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $6.9B | +11.5% | $2.0B | +6.2% | 3.36 | $3.1B |
| Q1'26 | $6.2B | +3.2% | $1.7B | +4.6% | 2.87 | $2.4B |
| Q4'25 * | $6.1B | −0.6% | $1.8B | +4.9% | 3.12 | $2.2B |
| Q3'25 | $6.2B | +2.5% | $1.8B | +7.0% | 3.01 | $2.5B |
| Q2'25 | $6.2B | +2.4% | $1.9B | +12.1% | 3.15 | $2.3B |
| Q1'25 | $6.0B | −0.1% | $1.6B | −0.9% | 2.70 | $2.2B |
| Q4'24 * | $6.1B | −0.6% | $1.8B | +6.7% | 2.91 | $2.7B |
| Q3'24 | $6.1B | +2.5% | $1.7B | +9.4% | 2.75 | $2.7B |
| Q2'24 | $6.0B | +0.7% | $1.7B | +6.6% | 2.74 | $1.9B |
| Q1'24 | $6.0B | −0.4% | $1.6B | +0.7% | 2.69 | $2.1B |
| Q4'23 * | $6.2B | −0.3% | $1.7B | +0.9% | 2.70 | $2.4B |
| Q3'23 | $5.9B | −9.5% | $1.5B | −19.4% | 2.51 | $2.1B |
| Q2'23 | $6.0B | −4.9% | $1.6B | −14.5% | 2.57 | $2.0B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −0.5% | +4.6% | +1.2% | +2.5% |
| Operating cash flow | −0.3% | +1.7% | +2.4% | +5.6% |
| Free cash flow | −1.4% | −0.4% | +7.4% | +8.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | +2.2% | +8.7% | +8.1% | +10.1% |
| Equity | +14.9% | +1.7% | −1.1% | +0.3% |
| LT debt | −1.5% | +3.5% | +8.4% | +8.6% |
| Diluted shares | −1.5% | −2.6% | −3.7% | −3.3% |
| Stock price | +14.3% | +9.7% | +14.9% | +16.0% |
$100, 3 years ago
$149vs $176 in SPY
14.3% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$159vs $181 in SPY
9.7% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$402vs $412 in SPY
14.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$929vs $813 in SPY
16.0% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$1.10
$20.0B created / $18.2B retained
Last 10 years
$2.29
$89.1B created / $39.0B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
18.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.97
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
5.8y
SBC / FCF
2.6%
Owner earnings
$5.4B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.9%
Share count 5y
−3.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$3.67
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 15.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 10.5% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 1.7% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
16 of 26 checks pass · 62%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
3/7
- fail
Revenue growth
4.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
8.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-0.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
1.7% vs 4.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
29.1% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
40.2% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
38.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
18.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
22.4% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $9.3B vs NI $7.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
5.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
4% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
1.72 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$18.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
13% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-3.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
108% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.0% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
25.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
14.6% vs 7.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24,510 | — | 9,846 | 7,138 | 11.98 | 9,290 | 3,791 | 5,499 | 3,236 | 2,679 | 142 | 1,266 | 31,814 | 18,467 | 596 |
| 2024 | 24,250 | — | 9,713 | 6,747 | 11.09 | 9,346 | 3,452 | 5,894 | 3,213 | 1,505 | 118 | 1,016 | 31,192 | 16,890 | 609 |
| 2023 | 24,119 | — | 9,082 | 6,379 | 10.45 | 8,379 | 3,606 | 4,773 | 3,173 | 705 | 107 | 1,055 | 32,579 | 14,788 | 610 |
| 2022 | 24,875 | — | 9,917 | 6,998 | 11.21 | 9,362 | 3,620 | 5,742 | 3,159 | 6,282 | 99 | 973 | 33,326 | 12,163 | 624 |
| 2021 | 21,804 | — | 9,338 | 6,523 | 9.95 | 9,032 | 2,936 | 6,096 | 2,800 | 7,291 | 88 | 960 | 29,729 | 14,161 | 655 |
| 2020 | 19,533 | — | 7,834 | 5,349 | 7.88 | 8,540 | 2,927 | 5,613 | 2,626 | 3,705 | 73 | 1,799 | 26,729 | 16,958 | 679 |
| 2019 | 21,708 | — | 8,554 | 5,919 | 8.38 | 8,609 | 3,453 | 5,156 | 2,598 | 5,804 | 93 | 831 | 25,200 | 18,128 | 706 |
| 2018 | 22,832 | — | 8,517 | 5,966 | 7.91 | 8,686 | 3,437 | 5,249 | 2,299 | 8,225 | 96 | 1,273 | 22,391 | 20,423 | 754 |
| 2017 | 21,240 | — | 8,106 | 10,712 | 13.36 | 7,230 | 3,238 | 3,992 | 1,982 | 4,013 | 103 | 1,275 | 16,944 | 24,856 | 802 |
| 2016 | 19,941 | — | 7,243 | 4,233 | 5.07 | 7,525 | 3,505 | 4,020 | 1,879 | 3,105 | 82 | 1,277 | 15,007 | 19,932 | 835 |
| 2015 | 21,813 | — | 8,052 | 4,772 | 5.49 | 7,344 | 4,650 | 2,694 | 2,344 | 3,465 | 98 | 1,391 | 14,201 | 20,702 | 869 |
| 2014 | 23,988 | — | 8,753 | 5,180 | 5.75 | 7,385 | 4,346 | 3,039 | 1,632 | 3,225 | 112 | 1,586 | 11,413 | 21,189 | 901 |
| 2013 | 21,963 | — | 7,446 | 4,388 | 4.71 | 6,823 | 3,496 | 3,327 | 1,333 | 2,218 | 98 | 1,432 | 9,577 | 21,225 | 932 |
| 2012 | 20,926 | — | 6,745 | 3,943 | 4.14 | 6,161 | 3,738 | 2,423 | 1,146 | 1,474 | 93 | 1,063 | 8,997 | 19,877 | 953 |
| 2011 | 19,557 | — | 5,724 | 3,292 | 3.45 | 5,873 | 3,176 | 2,697 | 837 | 1,418 | 82 | 1,217 | 8,906 | 18,578 | 953 |
| 2010 | 16,965 | — | 4,981 | 2,780 | 2.84 | 4,105 | 2,482 | 1,623 | 602 | — | 74 | 1,086 | 9,242 | 17,763 | 978 |
| 2009 | 14,143 | — | 3,379 | 1,890 | 1.92 | 3,204 | 2,354 | 850 | 544 | — | 58 | 1,850 | 9,848 | 16,801 | 984 |
| 2008 | 17,970 | — | 4,070 | 2,335 | 2.33 | 4,044 | 2,754 | 1,290 | 481 | — | 65 | 1,249 | 8,607 | 15,447 | 1,002 |
| 2007 | 16,283 | — | 3,375 | 1,855 | 1.78 | 3,277 | 2,496 | 781 | 364 | — | — | 878 | — | 15,456 | 1,044 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.