UNH
UnitedHealth Group · Health Care · Managed Health Care
$398.76
52w 255.97 – 461.62
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$357.9B
P/E
29.0
P/FCF
21.8
FCF yield
4.6%
ROE
12.0%
Shldr yield
3.8%
div 2.3% + bb 1.6%
What today's price assumes
At $357.9B, the market is pricing in 8.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 7.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $273 · $340 · $423 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 12.8× across 19 years, UNH would trade near $280/share (25th–75th percentile: $165–$327); it trades at 18.2× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+11.4%
Rev 5y
+11.7%
Rev 10y
+11.0%
EPS 5y
−3.8%
EPS 10y
+8.2%
FCF 5y
−4.4%
FCF 10y
+7.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $112.0B | +0.4% | $5.5B | +61.0% | 6.04 | $11.1B |
| Q1'26 | $111.7B | +2.0% | $6.3B | −0.2% | 6.90 | $8.9B |
| Q4'25 * | $113.2B | +12.3% | $10.0M | −99.8% | 0.05 | $1.1B |
| Q3'25 | $113.2B | +12.2% | $2.3B | −61.2% | 2.59 | $5.9B |
| Q2'25 | $111.6B | +12.9% | $3.4B | −19.2% | 3.74 | $7.2B |
| Q1'25 | $109.6B | +9.8% | $6.3B | — | 6.85 | $5.5B |
| Q4'24 * | $100.8B | +6.8% | $5.5B | +1.6% | 5.99 | $2.4B |
| Q3'24 | $100.8B | +9.2% | $6.1B | +3.7% | 6.51 | $13.9B |
| Q2'24 | $98.9B | +6.4% | $4.2B | −23.0% | 4.54 | $6.7B |
| Q1'24 | $99.8B | +8.6% | −$1.4B | −125.1% | -1.53 | $1.1B |
| Q4'23 * | $94.4B | +14.1% | $5.5B | +14.6% | 5.85 | −$5.2B |
| Q3'23 | $92.4B | +14.2% | $5.8B | +11.0% | 6.24 | $6.9B |
| Q2'23 | $92.9B | +15.6% | $5.5B | +8.0% | 5.82 | $11.0B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +11.4% | +11.7% | +11.0% | +11.0% |
| Operating cash flow | −9.1% | −2.3% | +7.3% | +7.9% |
| Free cash flow | −11.8% | −4.4% | +7.0% | +7.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | −14.5% | −3.8% | +8.2% | +8.1% |
| Equity | +7.1% | +7.9% | +11.5% | +9.5% |
| LT debt | +9.9% | +13.4% | +11.1% | +15.2% |
| Diluted shares | −1.4% | −1.1% | −0.6% | −1.4% |
| Stock price | −3.8% | +0.9% | +13.2% | +17.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$89vs $176 in SPY
-3.8% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$105vs $181 in SPY
0.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$346vs $412 in SPY
13.2% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,070vs $813 in SPY
17.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$-0.64
−$33.6B created / $52.8B retained
Last 10 years
$1.73
$164.3B created / $94.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
11.4%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.9%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.78
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
4.5y
SBC / FCF
6.0%
Owner earnings
$15.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.3%
Share count 5y
−2.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
2.4%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.01
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 47.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -4.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -2.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
14 of 26 checks pass · 54%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- pass
Revenue growth
11.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-3.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-4.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-2.3% vs 11.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
2/6
- fail
Net margin
2.7% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
4.2% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
12.0% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
11.4% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
3.6% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $19.7B vs NI $12.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
4.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
34% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.72 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$100.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
21% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
6% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
84% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.6% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
29.0 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
8.9% vs 7.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 447,567 | — | 18,964 | 12,056 | 13.23 | 19,697 | 3,622 | 16,075 | 7,916 | 5,545 | 971 | 24,365 | 72,320 | 100,090 | 911 |
| 2024 | 400,278 | — | 32,287 | 14,405 | 15.51 | 24,204 | 3,499 | 20,705 | 7,533 | 9,000 | 1,018 | 25,312 | 72,359 | 98,268 | 929 |
| 2023 | 371,622 | — | 32,358 | 22,381 | 23.86 | 29,068 | 3,386 | 25,682 | 6,761 | 8,000 | 1,059 | 25,427 | 58,263 | 94,421 | 938 |
| 2022 | 324,162 | — | 28,435 | 20,120 | 21.18 | 26,206 | 2,802 | 23,404 | 5,991 | 7,000 | 925 | 23,365 | 54,513 | 81,450 | 950 |
| 2021 | 287,597 | — | 23,970 | 17,285 | 18.08 | 22,343 | 2,454 | 19,889 | 5,280 | 5,000 | 800 | 21,375 | 42,383 | 75,045 | 956 |
| 2020 | 257,141 | — | 22,405 | 15,403 | 16.03 | 22,174 | 2,051 | 20,123 | 4,584 | 4,250 | 679 | 16,921 | 38,648 | 68,328 | 961 |
| 2019 | 242,155 | — | 19,685 | 13,839 | 14.33 | 18,463 | 2,071 | 16,392 | 3,932 | 5,500 | 697 | 10,985 | 36,808 | 60,436 | 966 |
| 2018 | 226,247 | — | 17,344 | 11,986 | 12.19 | 15,713 | 2,063 | 13,650 | 3,320 | 4,500 | 638 | 10,866 | 34,581 | 54,319 | 983 |
| 2017 | 201,159 | — | 15,209 | 10,558 | 10.72 | 13,596 | 2,023 | 11,573 | 2,773 | 1,500 | 597 | 11,981 | 28,835 | 49,833 | 985 |
| 2016 | 184,840 | — | 12,930 | 7,017 | 7.25 | 9,795 | 1,705 | 8,090 | 2,261 | 1,280 | 485 | 10,430 | 25,777 | 38,177 | 968 |
| 2015 | 157,107 | — | 11,021 | 5,813 | 6.01 | 9,740 | 1,556 | 8,184 | 1,786 | 1,200 | 406 | 10,923 | 25,331 | 33,725 | 967 |
| 2014 | 130,474 | — | 10,274 | 5,619 | 5.70 | 8,051 | 1,525 | 6,526 | 1,362 | 4,008 | 364 | 7,495 | 16,007 | 32,454 | 986 |
| 2013 | 122,489 | — | 9,623 | 5,625 | 5.50 | 6,991 | 1,307 | 5,684 | 1,056 | 3,170 | 331 | 7,276 | 14,891 | 32,149 | 1,023 |
| 2012 | 110,618 | — | 9,254 | 5,526 | 5.28 | 7,155 | 1,070 | 6,085 | 820 | 3,084 | 421 | 8,406 | 14,041 | 31,178 | 1,046 |
| 2011 | 101,862 | — | 8,464 | 5,142 | 4.73 | 6,968 | 1,067 | 5,901 | 651 | 2,994 | 401 | 9,429 | 10,656 | 28,292 | 1,087 |
| 2010 | 94,155 | — | 7,864 | 4,634 | 4.10 | 6,273 | 878 | 5,395 | 449 | 2,517 | 326 | 9,123 | 8,662 | 25,825 | 1,131 |
| 2009 | 87,138 | — | 6,359 | 3,822 | 3.24 | 5,625 | 739 | 4,886 | 36 | 1,801 | 334 | 9,800 | 9,009 | 23,606 | 1,179 |
| 2008 | 81,186 | — | 5,263 | 2,977 | 2.40 | 4,238 | 791 | 3,447 | 37 | 2,684 | 305 | 7,426 | 11,338 | 20,780 | 1,241 |
| 2007 | 75,431 | — | 7,849 | 4,654 | 3.42 | 5,877 | 871 | 5,006 | 40 | 6,599 | 505 | 8,865 | — | 20,063 | 1,361 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.