UBER
Uber · Industrials · Passenger Ground Transportation
$79.29
52w 65.41 – 101.99
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$162.0B
P/E
16.0
P/FCF
16.5
FCF yield
6.1%
ROE
37.2%
Shldr yield
4.1%
div 0.0% + bb 4.1%
What today's price assumes
At $162.0B, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).
Simple DCF per-share range: $73 · $98 · $122 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+17.7%
Rev 5y
+36.1%
Rev 10y
+26.5%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2017–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $14.2B | +12.2% | $2.4B | +76.7% | 1.17 | $2.9B |
| Q1'26 | $13.2B | +14.5% | $263.0M | −85.2% | 0.13 | $2.4B |
| Q4'25 * | $14.4B | +20.1% | $296.0M | −95.7% | 0.16 | $2.9B |
| Q3'25 | $13.5B | +20.4% | $6.6B | +153.7% | 3.11 | $2.3B |
| Q2'25 | $12.7B | +18.2% | $1.4B | +33.5% | 0.63 | $2.6B |
| Q1'25 | $11.5B | +13.8% | $1.8B | — | 0.83 | $2.3B |
| Q4'24 * | $12.0B | +20.4% | $6.9B | +381.7% | 3.21 | $1.8B |
| Q3'24 | $11.2B | +20.4% | $2.6B | +1081.9% | 1.20 | $2.2B |
| Q2'24 | $10.7B | +15.9% | $1.0B | +157.6% | 0.47 | $1.8B |
| Q1'24 | $10.1B | +14.8% | −$654.0M | — | -0.32 | $1.4B |
| Q4'23 * | $9.9B | +15.4% | $1.4B | +139.8% | 0.67 | $823.0M |
| Q3'23 | $9.3B | +11.4% | $221.0M | — | 0.10 | $966.0M |
| Q2'23 | $9.2B | +14.3% | $394.0M | — | 0.18 | $1.2B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +17.7% | +36.1% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +150.6% | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +192.5% | — | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | — |
| Equity | +54.4% | +17.1% | — | — |
| LT debt | +4.3% | +6.8% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +2.4% | +3.9% | — | — |
| Stock price | +18.9% | +15.2% | — | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$168vs $176 in SPY
18.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$203vs $181 in SPY
15.2% vs 12.6%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$6.61
$80.4B created / $12.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
26.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
6.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.59
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.1y
SBC / FCF
18.7%
Owner earnings
$7.9B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.9%
Share count 5y
+8.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.02
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 77.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 78.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 61.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 23 checks pass · 78%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
3/5
- pass
Revenue growth
36.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 8 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
4 of 9 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
4 of 9 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
150.6% vs 36.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
19.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
10.7% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
37.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
26.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
18.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $10.1B vs NI $10.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
68% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.39 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$27.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
8% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
8.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
19% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
67% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
2 of 9 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/3
- pass
FCF yield
6.1% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
16.0 · P/E ≤ 25
- na
Price asks less than history delivered
— · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 52,017 | — | 5,565 | 10,053 | 4.73 | 10,099 | 336 | 9,763 | — | 6,523 | 1,826 | 7,105 | 10,521 | 27,041 | 2,120 |
| 2024 | 43,978 | — | 2,799 | 9,856 | 4.56 | 7,137 | 242 | 6,895 | — | 1,252 | 1,796 | 5,893 | 8,347 | 21,558 | 2,151 |
| 2023 | 37,281 | — | 1,110 | 1,887 | 0.87 | 3,585 | 223 | 3,362 | — | 0 | 1,935 | 4,680 | 9,459 | 11,249 | 2,092 |
| 2022 | 31,877 | — | -1,832 | -9,141 | -4.65 | 642 | 252 | 390 | — | 0 | 1,793 | 4,208 | 9,265 | 7,340 | 1,975 |
| 2021 | 17,455 | — | -3,834 | -496 | -0.29 | -445 | 298 | -743 | — | — | 1,168 | 4,295 | 9,276 | 14,458 | 1,896 |
| 2020 | 11,139 | — | -4,863 | -6,768 | -3.86 | -2,745 | 616 | -3,361 | — | — | 827 | 5,647 | 7,560 | 12,266 | 1,753 |
| 2019 | 13,000 | — | -8,596 | -8,506 | -6.81 | -4,321 | 588 | -4,909 | — | — | 4,596 | 10,873 | 5,707 | 14,190 | 1,248 |
| 2018 | 10,433 | — | -3,033 | 997 | 0.00 | -1,541 | 558 | -2,099 | — | — | 170 | 6,406 | 6,869 | -7,385 | 1,248 |
| 2017 | 7,932 | — | -4,080 | -4,033 | -3.63 | -1,418 | 821 | -2,239 | — | — | 124 | 4,393 | — | -8,557 | 1,111 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.