MMarketMath

UBER

Fast growerQuality: Medium (58/100)1 red flag

Uber · Industrials · Passenger Ground Transportation

$79.29

52w 65.41 – 101.99

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$162.0B

P/E

16.0

P/FCF

16.5

FCF yield

6.1%

ROE

37.2%

Shldr yield

4.1%

div 0.0% + bb 4.1%

What today's price assumes

At $162.0B, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).

Simple DCF per-share range: $73 · $98 · $122 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+17.7%

Rev 5y

+36.1%

Rev 10y

+26.5%

EPS 5y

EPS 10y

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2017–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2017: $7.9B
2018: $10.4B
2019: $13.0B
2020: $11.1B
2021: $17.5B
2022: $31.9B
2023: $37.3B
2024: $44.0B
2025: $52.0B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
17
19
21
23
25

Net income

2017: −$4.0B
2018: $997.0M
2019: −$8.5B
2020: −$6.8B
2021: −$496.0M
2022: −$9.1B
2023: $1.9B
2024: $9.9B
2025: $10.1B
−$5.0B$0$5.0B$10.0B
17
19
21
23
25

Free cash flow

2017: −$2.2B
2018: −$2.1B
2019: −$4.9B
2020: −$3.4B
2021: −$743.0M
2022: $390.0M
2023: $3.4B
2024: $6.9B
2025: $9.8B
$0$5.0B
17
19
21
23
25

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2017: 1.1B
2018: 1.2B
2019: 1.2B
2020: 1.8B
2021: 1.9B
2022: 2.0B
2023: 2.1B
2024: 2.2B
2025: 2.1B
01.0B2.0B
17
19
21
23
25

Margins

-50%0%1719212325
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2022: $0
2023: $0
2024: $1.3B
2025: $6.5B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
17
19
21
23
25

Cash vs long-term debt

$4.0B$6.0B$8.0B$10.0B1719212325
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $9.2B
Q3'23: $9.3B
Q4'23: $9.9B
Q1'24: $10.1B
Q2'24: $10.7B
Q3'24: $11.2B
Q4'24: $12.0B
Q1'25: $11.5B
Q2'25: $12.7B
Q3'25: $13.5B
Q4'25: $14.4B
Q1'26: $13.2B
Q2'26: $14.2B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $394.0M
Q3'23: $221.0M
Q4'23: $1.4B
Q1'24: −$654.0M
Q2'24: $1.0B
Q3'24: $2.6B
Q4'24: $6.9B
Q1'25: $1.8B
Q2'25: $1.4B
Q3'25: $6.6B
Q4'25: $296.0M
Q1'26: $263.0M
Q2'26: $2.4B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$14.2B+12.2%$2.4B+76.7%1.17$2.9B
Q1'26$13.2B+14.5%$263.0M−85.2%0.13$2.4B
Q4'25 *$14.4B+20.1%$296.0M−95.7%0.16$2.9B
Q3'25$13.5B+20.4%$6.6B+153.7%3.11$2.3B
Q2'25$12.7B+18.2%$1.4B+33.5%0.63$2.6B
Q1'25$11.5B+13.8%$1.8B0.83$2.3B
Q4'24 *$12.0B+20.4%$6.9B+381.7%3.21$1.8B
Q3'24$11.2B+20.4%$2.6B+1081.9%1.20$2.2B
Q2'24$10.7B+15.9%$1.0B+157.6%0.47$1.8B
Q1'24$10.1B+14.8%−$654.0M-0.32$1.4B
Q4'23 *$9.9B+15.4%$1.4B+139.8%0.67$823.0M
Q3'23$9.3B+11.4%$221.0M0.10$966.0M
Q2'23$9.2B+14.3%$394.0M0.18$1.2B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+17.7%+36.1%
Operating cash flow+150.6%
Free cash flow+192.5%
EPS (diluted)
Equity+54.4%+17.1%
LT debt+4.3%+6.8%
Diluted shares+2.4%+3.9%
Stock price+18.9%+15.2%

$100, 3 years ago

$168vs $176 in SPY

18.9% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$203vs $181 in SPY

15.2% vs 12.6%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$6.61

$80.4B created / $12.2B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

26.9%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

6.1%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.59

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.1y

SBC / FCF

18.7%

Owner earnings

$7.9B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

4.9%

Share count 5y

+8.4%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.02

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 77.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 78.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 61.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

18 of 23 checks pass · 78%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

3/5

  • Revenue growth

    36.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 8 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    4 of 9 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail
  • Profitable every year

    4 of 9 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    fail
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    150.6% vs 36.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    19.3% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    10.7% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    37.2% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    26.9% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    18.8% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $10.1B vs NI $10.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

5/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    68% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    0.39 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $27.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    8% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

1/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    8.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    19% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    fail
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    67% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    2 of 9 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

3/3

  • FCF yield

    6.1% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    16.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    4.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202552,0175,56510,0534.7310,0993369,7636,5231,8267,10510,52127,0412,120
202443,9782,7999,8564.567,1372426,8951,2521,7965,8938,34721,5582,151
202337,2811,1101,8870.873,5852233,36201,9354,6809,45911,2492,092
202231,877-1,832-9,141-4.6564225239001,7934,2089,2657,3401,975
202117,455-3,834-496-0.29-445298-7431,1684,2959,27614,4581,896
202011,139-4,863-6,768-3.86-2,745616-3,3618275,6477,56012,2661,753
201913,000-8,596-8,506-6.81-4,321588-4,9094,59610,8735,70714,1901,248
201810,433-3,0339970.00-1,541558-2,0991706,4066,869-7,3851,248
20177,932-4,080-4,033-3.63-1,418821-2,2391244,393-8,5571,111

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.