TT
Trane Technologies · Industrials · Building Products
$452.96
52w 348.06 – 505.87
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$99.7B
P/E
34.9
P/FCF
36.3
FCF yield
2.8%
ROE
34.0%
Shldr yield
2.3%
div 0.8% + bb 1.5%
What today's price assumes
At $99.7B, the market is pricing in 15.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 16.0% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $195 · $437 · $584 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 11.6× across 18 years, TT would trade near $169/share (25th–75th percentile: $137–$342); it trades at 31.2× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+10.1%
Rev 5y
+11.4%
Rev 10y
+4.8%
EPS 5y
+29.8%
EPS 10y
+18.0%
FCF 5y
+16.9%
FCF 10y
+16.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $6.4B | +10.6% | $925.7M | +5.8% | 4.16 | $1.1B |
| Q1'26 | $5.0B | +6.0% | $584.4M | −3.4% | 2.62 | $626.2M |
| Q4'25 * | $5.1B | +5.5% | $591.3M | −2.2% | 2.64 | $1.2B |
| Q3'25 | $5.7B | +5.5% | $847.6M | +9.8% | 3.78 | $1.0B |
| Q2'25 | $5.7B | +8.3% | $874.8M | +15.8% | 3.89 | $692.1M |
| Q1'25 | $4.7B | +11.2% | $604.9M | +38.6% | 2.67 | $339.5M |
| Q4'24 * | $4.9B | +10.2% | $604.3M | +19.8% | 2.65 | $899.9M |
| Q3'24 | $5.4B | +11.4% | $772.0M | +23.3% | 3.39 | $1.3B |
| Q2'24 | $5.3B | +12.8% | $755.3M | +28.8% | 3.30 | $695.9M |
| Q1'24 | $4.2B | +15.0% | $436.3M | +42.1% | 1.90 | $247.2M |
| Q4'23 * | $4.4B | +8.6% | $504.3M | +14.8% | 2.17 | $934.8M |
| Q3'23 | $4.9B | +11.7% | $626.3M | +14.3% | 2.72 | $922.3M |
| Q2'23 | $4.7B | +12.3% | $586.2M | +15.1% | 2.55 | $524.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10.1% | +11.4% | +4.8% | +2.8% |
| Operating cash flow | +28.5% | +17.4% | +13.7% | +10.7% |
| Free cash flow | +32.4% | +16.9% | +16.0% | +12.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | +20.2% | +29.8% | +18.0% | +13.7% |
| Equity | +12.1% | +6.0% | +4.0% | +0.5% |
| LT debt | +1.2% | −2.7% | +0.5% | +2.0% |
| Diluted shares | −1.4% | −1.5% | −1.7% | −2.7% |
| Stock price | +31.3% | +19.4% | +25.9% | +24.8% |
$100, 3 years ago
$226vs $176 in SPY
31.3% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$243vs $181 in SPY
19.4% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,003vs $412 in SPY
25.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,767vs $813 in SPY
24.8% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$8.52
$61.6B created / $7.2B retained
Last 10 years
$7.51
$85.1B created / $11.3B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
25.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.19
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.4y
SBC / FCF
3.1%
Owner earnings
$2.7B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.7%
Share count 5y
−1.8%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
10.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.10
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 26.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 56.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 14.9% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
23 of 26 checks pass · 88%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
11.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
29.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
16.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
17.4% vs 11.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
13.7% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
18.6% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
34.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
25.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
13.2% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.2B vs NI $2.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
45% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.46 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$8.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
6% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
82% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
34.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
15.8% vs 16.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21,322 | — | 3,967 | 2,919 | 12.98 | 3,195 | 383 | 2,812 | 837 | 1,481 | 87 | 1,763 | 3,922 | 8,579 | 225 |
| 2024 | 19,838 | — | 3,500 | 2,568 | 11.24 | 3,146 | 371 | 2,775 | 758 | 1,281 | 83 | 1,590 | 4,318 | 7,457 | 228 |
| 2023 | 17,678 | — | 2,894 | 2,024 | 8.77 | 2,390 | 301 | 2,089 | 684 | 669 | 64 | 1,095 | 3,978 | 6,995 | 231 |
| 2022 | 15,992 | — | 2,419 | 1,757 | 7.48 | 1,504 | 292 | 1,212 | 620 | 1,200 | 56 | 1,221 | 3,788 | 6,089 | 235 |
| 2021 | 14,136 | — | 2,023 | 1,423 | 5.87 | 1,588 | 223 | 1,365 | 561 | 1,100 | 67 | 2,159 | 4,492 | 6,256 | 242 |
| 2020 | 12,455 | — | 1,533 | 855 | 3.52 | 1,435 | 146 | 1,289 | 507 | 250 | 70 | 3,290 | 4,497 | 6,408 | 243 |
| 2019 | 13,076 | — | 1,670 | 1,411 | 5.77 | 1,920 | 205 | 1,714 | 510 | 750 | 66 | 1,279 | 4,923 | 7,268 | 244 |
| 2018 | 12,344 | — | 1,512 | 1,338 | 5.35 | 1,408 | 285 | 1,123 | 480 | 900 | 79 | 878 | 3,741 | 7,023 | 250 |
| 2017 | 14,198 | — | 1,665 | 1,303 | 5.05 | 1,524 | 221 | 1,302 | 430 | 1,017 | 71 | 1,524 | 2,957 | 7,140 | 258 |
| 2016 | 13,509 | — | 1,603 | 1,476 | 5.65 | 1,522 | 183 | 1,339 | 349 | 250 | 70 | 1,715 | 3,709 | 6,644 | 262 |
| 2015 | 13,301 | — | 1,492 | 665 | 2.48 | 888 | 250 | 639 | 303 | 250 | 63 | 737 | 3,714 | 5,817 | 268 |
| 2014 | 12,891 | — | 1,405 | 932 | 3.40 | 973 | 234 | 740 | 265 | 1,375 | 68 | 1,705 | 3,742 | 5,987 | 274 |
| 2013 | 12,351 | — | 1,105 | 619 | 2.07 | 1,092 | 242 | 849 | 246 | 1,213 | 72 | 1,937 | 3,154 | 7,069 | 298 |
| 2012 | 11,988 | — | 1,072 | 1,019 | 3.28 | 1,195 | 243 | 952 | 192 | 840 | 50 | 708 | 2,267 | 7,148 | 311 |
| 2011 | 14,782 | — | 860 | 343 | 1.01 | 1,187 | 243 | 944 | 137 | 1,158 | 43 | 987 | 2,879 | 6,924 | 339 |
| 2010 | 14,001 | — | 1,261 | 642 | 1.89 | 695 | 180 | 516 | 91 | 0 | 74 | 841 | 2,922 | 7,964 | 340 |
| 2009 | 13,009 | — | 885 | 451 | 1.37 | 1,757 | 204 | 1,553 | 161 | 0 | 68 | 841 | 2,905 | 7,072 | 329 |
| 2008 | 13,045 | — | -2,521 | -2,625 | -8.73 | 424 | 305 | 119 | 213 | -2 | 28 | 550 | 2,774 | 6,661 | 304 |
| 2007 | 8,763 | — | 1,058 | 3,967 | 13.43 | 826 | 120 | 707 | 210 | 2,000 | 31 | 4,735 | — | 8,005 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.