TSLA
Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary · Automobile Manufacturers
$348.95
52w 297.38 – 498.83
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$1.38T
P/E
377.7
P/FCF
230.4
FCF yield
0.4%
ROE
4.6%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $1.38T, the market is pricing in 42.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 17.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $24 · $54 · $78 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 75.3× across 8 years, TSLA would trade near $281/share (25th–75th percentile: $176–$362); it trades at 93.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+5.2%
Rev 5y
+24.6%
Rev 10y
+37.1%
EPS 5y
+38.8%
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
+17.4%
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $28.2B | +25.5% | $1.1B | −4.9% | 0.32 | $4.7B |
| Q1'26 | $22.4B | +15.8% | $477.0M | +16.6% | 0.13 | $3.9B |
| Q4'25 * | $24.9B | −3.1% | $840.0M | −60.5% | 0.24 | $3.8B |
| Q3'25 | $28.1B | +11.6% | $1.4B | −36.8% | 0.39 | $6.2B |
| Q2'25 | $22.5B | −11.8% | $1.2B | −16.3% | 0.33 | $2.5B |
| Q1'25 | $19.3B | −9.2% | $409.0M | −70.6% | 0.12 | $2.2B |
| Q4'24 * | $25.7B | +2.1% | $2.1B | −73.2% | 0.61 | $4.8B |
| Q3'24 | $25.2B | +7.8% | $2.2B | +17.3% | 0.62 | $6.3B |
| Q2'24 | $25.5B | +2.3% | $1.4B | −48.2% | 0.40 | $3.6B |
| Q1'24 | $21.3B | −8.7% | $1.4B | −44.7% | 0.41 | $242.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $25.2B | +3.5% | $7.9B | +115.0% | 2.26 | $4.4B |
| Q3'23 | $23.4B | +8.8% | $1.9B | −43.7% | 0.53 | $3.3B |
| Q2'23 | $24.9B | +47.2% | $2.7B | +19.7% | 0.78 | $3.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.2% | +24.6% | +37.1% | +56.3% |
| Operating cash flow | +0.1% | +19.9% | +40.1% | — |
| Free cash flow | −6.3% | +17.4% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | −33.2% | +38.8% | — | — |
| Equity | +22.5% | +29.9% | +54.2% | +49.0% |
| LT debt | +85.6% | −4.9% | +12.5% | +35.1% |
| Diluted shares | +0.5% | +1.7% | +3.9% | — |
| Stock price | +10.6% | +7.3% | +37.8% | +42.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$135vs $176 in SPY
10.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$142vs $181 in SPY
7.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$2,469vs $412 in SPY
37.8% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$21,157vs $813 in SPY
42.9% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$14.99
$659.1B created / $44.0B retained
Last 10 years
$37.01
$1.49T created / $40.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
16.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
9.72
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.1y
SBC / FCF
45.4%
Owner earnings
$3.4B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.2%
Share count 5y
+3.9%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.35
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 88.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 14.5% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 12.7% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
13 of 27 checks pass · 48%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- pass
Revenue growth
24.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
38.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
17.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
7 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
6 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
19.9% vs 24.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/7
- fail
Net margin
4.0% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
4.6% · ≥ 10%
- fail
Gross margin stable or rising
18.0% vs 25.6% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
4.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
16.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
6.6% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $14.7B vs NI $3.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
251% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.08 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$82.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
8% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
3.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
45% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
0.4% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
377.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
42.1% vs 17.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Margin compression
Gross margin has fallen by more than 5 points over the last three years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 94,827 | 17,094 | 4,355 | 3,794 | 1.08 | 14,747 | 8,527 | 6,220 | — | — | 2,825 | 16,513 | 6,584 | 82,137 | 3,528 |
| 2024 | 97,690 | 17,450 | 7,076 | 7,091 | 2.04 | 14,923 | 11,342 | 3,581 | — | — | 1,999 | 16,139 | 5,535 | 72,913 | 3,498 |
| 2023 | 96,773 | 17,660 | 8,891 | 14,997 | 4.30 | 13,256 | 8,899 | 4,357 | — | — | 1,812 | 16,398 | 2,682 | 62,634 | 3,485 |
| 2022 | 81,462 | 20,853 | 13,656 | 12,556 | 3.62 | 14,724 | 7,158 | 7,566 | — | — | 1,560 | 16,253 | 1,029 | 44,704 | 3,475 |
| 2021 | 53,823 | 13,606 | 6,523 | 5,519 | 1.63 | 11,497 | 6,482 | 5,015 | — | — | 2,121 | 17,576 | 4,254 | 30,189 | 3,386 |
| 2020 | 31,536 | 6,630 | 1,994 | 721 | 0.21 | 5,943 | 3,157 | 2,786 | — | — | 1,734 | 19,384 | 8,462 | 22,225 | 3,249 |
| 2019 | 24,578 | 4,069 | -69 | -862 | -0.27 | 2,405 | 1,327 | 1,078 | — | — | 898 | 6,268 | 10,402 | 6,618 | 3,249 |
| 2018 | 21,461 | 4,042 | -388 | -976 | -0.31 | 2,098 | 2,101 | -3 | — | — | 749 | 3,686 | 8,411 | 4,923 | 3,124 |
| 2017 | 11,759 | 2,223 | -1,632 | -1,962 | -0.63 | -61 | 3,415 | -3,476 | — | — | 467 | 3,368 | 8,829 | 4,237 | 3,124 |
| 2016 | 7,000 | 1,599 | -667 | -675 | -0.25 | -124 | 1,281 | -1,405 | — | — | 334 | 3,393 | 5,892 | 4,753 | 2,714 |
| 2015 | 4,046 | 924 | -717 | -889 | -0.37 | -524 | 1,635 | -2,159 | — | — | 198 | 1,197 | 2,021 | 1,084 | 2,413 |
| 2014 | 3,198 | 882 | -187 | -294 | -0.13 | -57 | 970 | -1,027 | — | — | 156 | 1,906 | 2,960 | 912 | — |
| 2013 | 2,013 | 456 | -61 | -74 | -0.03 | 258 | 264 | -6 | — | — | 81 | 846 | 0 | 667 | — |
| 2012 | 413 | 30 | -394 | -396 | -0.20 | -266 | 239 | -505 | — | — | 50 | 202 | 401 | 125 | — |
| 2011 | 204 | 62 | -251 | -254 | — | -128 | 184 | -312 | — | — | 29 | 255 | 268 | 224 | — |
| 2010 | 117 | 31 | -147 | -154 | — | -128 | 40 | -168 | — | — | 21 | 100 | 72 | 207 | — |
| 2009 | 112 | 10 | -52 | -56 | — | -81 | 12 | -93 | — | — | 1 | 70 | — | -254 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.