TRV
Travelers Companies (The) · Financials · Property & Casualty Insurance
$370.55
52w 252.26 – 398.70
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$77.3B
P/E
12.3
P/FCF
7.3
FCF yield
13.7%
ROE
19.1%
Shldr yield
5.2%
div 1.3% + bb 3.9%
What today's price assumes
At $77.3B, the market is pricing in -6.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 11.9% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $775 · $1,388 · $1,731 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.1× across 19 years, TRV would trade near $310/share (25th–75th percentile: $281–$348); it trades at 7.3× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+9.8%
Rev 5y
+8.8%
Rev 10y
+6.2%
EPS 5y
+21.1%
EPS 10y
+9.7%
FCF 5y
+10.2%
FCF 10y
+11.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $12.2B | +0.3% | $2.2B | +46.3% | 10.26 | $1.9B |
| Q1'26 | $11.9B | +1.0% | $1.7B | +333.2% | 7.78 | $2.2B |
| Q4'25 * | $12.4B | +3.5% | $2.5B | +19.9% | 10.96 | $2.7B |
| Q3'25 | $12.5B | +4.8% | $1.9B | +49.8% | 8.24 | $4.2B |
| Q2'25 | $12.1B | +7.4% | $1.5B | +182.6% | 6.53 | $2.3B |
| Q1'25 | $11.8B | +5.2% | $395.0M | −64.8% | 1.70 | $1.4B |
| Q4'24 * | $12.0B | +9.9% | $2.1B | +28.0% | 8.96 | $2.1B |
| Q3'24 | $11.9B | +11.9% | $1.3B | +211.9% | 5.42 | $3.9B |
| Q2'24 | $11.3B | +11.7% | $534.0M | — | 2.29 | $1.7B |
| Q1'24 | $11.2B | +15.7% | $1.1B | +15.2% | 4.80 | $1.5B |
| Q4'23 * | $10.9B | +13.4% | $1.6B | +98.5% | 6.99 | $2.1B |
| Q3'23 | $10.6B | +14.3% | $404.0M | −11.0% | 1.74 | $3.0B |
| Q2'23 | $10.1B | +10.5% | −$14.0M | −102.5% | -0.07 | $1.5B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +9.8% | +8.8% | +6.2% | +4.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +17.9% | +10.2% | +11.9% | +8.7% |
| Free cash flow | +17.9% | +10.2% | +11.9% | +8.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | +32.6% | +21.1% | +9.7% | +9.9% |
| Equity | +15.1% | +2.4% | +3.4% | +1.7% |
| LT debt | −2.2% | −1.0% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −1.7% | −2.2% | −3.2% | −4.9% |
| Stock price | +34.4% | +20.7% | +14.5% | +16.8% |
$100, 3 years ago
$243vs $176 in SPY
34.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$256vs $181 in SPY
20.7% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$387vs $412 in SPY
14.5% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,032vs $813 in SPY
16.8% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$2.04
$33.1B created / $16.2B retained
Last 10 years
$1.50
$37.5B created / $25.1B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
32.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
13.9%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.73
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
2.4%
Owner earnings
$10.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
13.4%
Share count 5y
−5.8%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 8.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 114.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 9.9% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
24 of 24 checks pass · 100%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
8.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
21.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
10.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
10.2% vs 8.8% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
12.9% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
19.1% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
32.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
21.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $10.6B vs NI $6.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
— · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$32.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-5.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
38% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
13.7% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
12.3 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-6.4% vs 11.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
5.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 48,828 | — | — | 6,288 | 27.43 | 10,606 | — | 10,606 | 979 | 3,004 | 256 | 842 | — | 32,894 | 228 |
| 2024 | 46,423 | — | — | 4,999 | 21.47 | 9,074 | — | 9,074 | 951 | 1,003 | 260 | 699 | — | 27,864 | 231 |
| 2023 | 41,364 | — | — | 2,991 | 12.79 | 7,711 | — | 7,711 | 908 | 958 | 214 | 650 | — | 24,921 | 232 |
| 2022 | 36,884 | — | — | 2,842 | 11.77 | 6,465 | — | 6,465 | 875 | 2,000 | 183 | 799 | — | 21,560 | 240 |
| 2021 | 34,816 | — | — | 3,662 | 14.49 | 7,274 | — | 7,274 | 869 | 2,156 | 162 | 761 | — | 28,887 | 251 |
| 2020 | 31,981 | — | — | 2,697 | 10.52 | 6,519 | — | 6,519 | 861 | 625 | 148 | 721 | — | 29,201 | 255 |
| 2019 | 31,581 | — | — | 2,622 | 9.92 | 5,205 | — | 5,205 | 844 | 1,500 | 142 | 494 | — | 25,943 | 262 |
| 2018 | 30,282 | — | — | 2,523 | 9.28 | 4,380 | — | 4,380 | 814 | 1,270 | 140 | 373 | — | 22,894 | 270 |
| 2017 | 28,902 | — | — | 2,056 | 7.33 | 4,148 | — | 4,148 | 785 | 1,378 | 136 | 344 | — | 23,731 | 279 |
| 2016 | 27,625 | — | — | 3,014 | 10.28 | 4,469 | — | 4,469 | 757 | 2,400 | 155 | 307 | — | 23,221 | 291 |
| 2015 | 26,815 | — | — | 3,439 | 10.88 | 3,434 | — | 3,434 | 739 | 3,150 | 141 | — | — | 23,598 | 314 |
| 2014 | 27,174 | — | 3,641 | 3,692 | 10.70 | 3,693 | — | 3,693 | 729 | 3,275 | 138 | — | 5,861 | 24,836 | 343 |
| 2013 | 26,191 | — | 3,567 | 3,673 | 9.74 | 3,816 | — | 3,816 | 729 | 2,400 | 129 | — | 6,261 | 24,796 | 374 |
| 2012 | 25,740 | — | 2,441 | 2,473 | 6.30 | 3,230 | — | 3,230 | — | — | 120 | — | 5,761 | 25,405 | 390 |
| 2011 | 25,446 | — | 1,390 | 1,426 | 3.36 | 2,169 | — | 2,169 | — | — | 121 | — | 6,269 | 24,477 | 421 |
| 2010 | 25,112 | — | 3,043 | 3,216 | 6.62 | 3,054 | — | 3,054 | — | — | 128 | — | 6,519 | 25,475 | 483 |
| 2009 | 24,680 | — | 3,600 | 3,622 | 6.33 | 4,231 | — | 4,231 | — | — | 127 | — | 6,165 | 27,415 | 569 |
| 2008 | 24,477 | — | — | 2,924 | 4.81 | 3,138 | — | 3,138 | — | — | 123 | — | — | 25,319 | 604 |
| 2007 | 26,017 | — | — | — | 6.85 | 5,286 | — | 5,286 | — | — | — | — | — | 26,616 | 669 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.