TRGP
Targa Resources · Energy · Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
$294.26
52w 144.14 – 307.94
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$63.1B
P/E
33.4
P/FCF
109.8
FCF yield
0.9%
ROE
62.7%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $63.1B, the market is pricing in 31.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 8.7% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $42 · $59 · $73 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.7× across 10 years, TRGP would trade near $123/share (25th–75th percentile: $99–$140); it trades at 16.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−4.9%
Rev 5y
+19.9%
Rev 10y
+10.9%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
−5.9%
FCF 10y
+8.7%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $4.4B | +4.2% | $764.6M | +21.5% | 3.54 | $1.4B |
| Q1'26 | $4.1B | −10.2% | $479.6M | +77.3% | 2.21 | $739.5M |
| Q4'25 * | $4.1B | +24.8% | $545.0M | +55.3% | 2.51 | $1.5B |
| Q3'25 | $4.2B | +7.8% | $478.4M | +23.5% | 2.20 | $599.2M |
| Q2'25 | $4.3B | +39.8% | $629.1M | +110.8% | 2.87 | $858.3M |
| Q1'25 | $4.6B | +14.4% | $270.5M | −1.7% | 0.91 | $954.4M |
| Q4'24 * | $3.2B | −10.7% | $350.9M | +17.1% | 1.44 | $1.3B |
| Q3'24 | $3.9B | +14.7% | $387.4M | +76.1% | 1.75 | $540.9M |
| Q2'24 | $3.0B | +12.1% | $298.5M | −9.4% | 1.33 | $904.5M |
| Q1'24 | $4.0B | +4.9% | $275.2M | −44.6% | 1.22 | $876.4M |
| Q4'23 * | $3.6B | −10.9% | $299.6M | −5.8% | 1.22 | $957.7M |
| Q3'23 | $3.4B | −33.4% | $220.0M | +13.9% | 0.97 | $407.3M |
| Q2'23 | $2.7B | −53.1% | $329.3M | −44.8% | 1.44 | $676.8M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −4.9% | +19.9% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +18.1% | +17.6% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | −17.7% | −5.9% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +29.8% | — | — | — |
| Equity | +4.8% | +2.9% | — | — |
| LT debt | +14.8% | +17.6% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −2.1% | −1.4% | — | — |
| Stock price | +53.8% | +49.4% | +26.2% | +21.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$364vs $176 in SPY
53.8% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$745vs $181 in SPY
49.4% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,023vs $412 in SPY
26.2% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,875vs $813 in SPY
21.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$6.41
$37.5B created / $5.8B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
19.1%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.64
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
29.8y
SBC / FCF
11.9%
Owner earnings
$514.6M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.8%
Share count 5y
+3.8%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
120.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.82
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 65.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 21.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 14.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
9 of 24 checks pass · 38%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
1/6
- pass
Revenue growth
19.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-5.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
7 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
7 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
17.6% vs 19.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/6
- pass
Net margin
11.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
19.6% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
62.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
19.1% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
3.4% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.9B vs NI $1.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
29.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
1% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
5.68 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$3.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
3.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
12% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
0.9% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
33.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
31.2% vs 8.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17,028 | — | 3,331 | 1,923 | 8.49 | 3,917 | 3,333 | 584 | — | — | 70 | 166 | 17,433 | 3,068 | 217 |
| 2024 | 14,137 | — | 2,695 | 1,312 | 5.74 | 3,650 | 2,966 | 684 | — | — | 63 | 157 | 14,175 | 2,592 | 221 |
| 2023 | 13,521 | — | 2,626 | 1,346 | 3.66 | 3,212 | 2,385 | 826 | — | — | 62 | 142 | 12,954 | 2,740 | 226 |
| 2022 | 19,821 | — | 1,729 | 1,196 | 3.88 | 2,381 | 1,334 | 1,047 | — | — | 58 | 219 | 11,536 | 2,666 | 231 |
| 2021 | 16,093 | — | 865 | 71 | -0.07 | 2,303 | 505 | 1,798 | — | — | 59 | 159 | 6,597 | 2,012 | 229 |
| 2020 | 6,874 | — | -1,304 | -1,554 | -7.26 | 1,745 | 952 | 793 | — | — | 66 | 243 | 7,756 | 2,654 | 232 |
| 2019 | 7,398 | 2,553 | 193 | -209 | -1.44 | 1,390 | 2,878 | -1,488 | — | — | 60 | 331 | 7,822 | 4,921 | 233 |
| 2018 | 9,351 | 2,246 | 238 | 2 | -0.53 | 1,144 | 3,115 | -1,971 | — | — | 56 | 232 | 5,632 | 6,079 | 224 |
| 2017 | 7,801 | 1,909 | -122 | 54 | -0.31 | 940 | 1,298 | -358 | — | — | 42 | 137 | 4,703 | 6,160 | 207 |
| 2016 | 6,691 | 1,768 | 56 | -187 | -1.80 | 837 | 562 | 275 | — | — | 30 | 74 | 4,606 | 5,249 | 154 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.