MMarketMath

TMUS

StalwartQuality: Medium (51/100)1 red flag

T-Mobile US · Communication Services · Wireless Telecommunication Services

$182.62

52w 165.66 – 258.66

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$195.9B

P/E

17.8

P/FCF

10.9

FCF yield

9.2%

ROE

18.6%

Shldr yield

7.2%

div 2.1% + bb 5.1%

What today's price assumes

At $195.9B, the market is pricing in -0.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 38.6% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $256 · $574 · $827 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 9.5× across 18 years, TMUS would trade near $246/share (25th–75th percentile: $149–$355); it trades at 7.0× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+3.5%

Rev 5y

+5.2%

Rev 10y

+10.5%

EPS 5y

+29.7%

EPS 10y

+28.1%

FCF 5y

—

FCF 10y

+38.6%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2008: $2.8B
2009: $3.5B
2010: $4.1B
2011: $20.6B
2012: $19.7B
2013: $24.4B
2014: $29.6B
2015: $32.5B
2016: $37.5B
2017: $40.6B
2018: $43.3B
2019: $45.0B
2020: $68.4B
2021: $80.1B
2022: $79.6B
2023: $78.6B
2024: $81.4B
2025: $88.3B
$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Net income

2008: $149.4M
2009: $176.8M
2010: $193.4M
2011: −$4.7B
2012: −$7.3B
2013: $35.0M
2014: $247.0M
2015: $733.0M
2016: $1.5B
2017: $4.5B
2018: $2.9B
2019: $3.5B
2020: $3.1B
2021: $3.0B
2022: $2.6B
2023: $8.3B
2024: $11.3B
2025: $11.0B
−$5.0B$0$5.0B$10.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Free cash flow

2008: −$507.1M
2009: $67.7M
2010: $204.1M
2011: $2.3B
2012: $961.0M
2013: −$480.0M
2014: −$171.0M
2015: $690.0M
2016: −$1.9B
2017: −$1.4B
2018: −$1.6B
2019: $433.0M
2020: −$2.4B
2021: $1.6B
2022: $2.8B
2023: $8.8B
2024: $13.5B
2025: $18.0B
$0$10.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 355.4M
2009: 355.9M
2010: 356.1M
2011: 535.3M
2012: 535.3M
2013: 676.9M
2014: 815.9M
2015: 822.6M
2016: 833.1M
2017: 871.8M
2018: 858.3M
2019: 863.4M
2020: 1.2B
2021: 1.3B
2022: 1.3B
2023: 1.2B
2024: 1.2B
2025: 1.1B
0500.0M1.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Margins

-40%-20%0%20%081114172023
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2008: $0
2009: $0
2010: $1.9M
2011: $4.9M
2012: $4.3M
2013: $0
2014: $0
2015: $55.0M
2016: $55.0M
2017: $482.0M
2018: $1.1B
2019: $0
2020: $19.5B
2021: $0
2022: $3.0B
2023: $13.8B
2024: $14.5B
2025: $14.1B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B081114172023
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $19.2B
Q3'23: $19.3B
Q4'23: $20.5B
Q1'24: $19.6B
Q2'24: $19.8B
Q3'24: $20.2B
Q4'24: $21.9B
Q1'25: $20.9B
Q2'25: $21.1B
Q3'25: $22.0B
Q4'25: $24.3B
Q1'26: $23.1B
Q2'26: $22.8B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $2.2B
Q3'23: $2.1B
Q4'23: $2.0B
Q1'24: $2.4B
Q2'24: $2.9B
Q3'24: $3.1B
Q4'24: $3.0B
Q1'25: $3.0B
Q2'25: $3.2B
Q3'25: $2.7B
Q4'25: $2.1B
Q1'26: $2.5B
Q2'26: $3.2B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$22.8B+7.9%$3.2B+0.5%2.99$7.5B
Q1'26$23.1B+10.6%$2.5B−15.2%2.27$7.2B
Q4'25 *$24.3B+11.3%$2.1B−29.5%1.89$6.7B
Q3'25$22.0B+8.9%$2.7B−11.3%2.41$7.5B
Q2'25$21.1B+6.9%$3.2B+10.2%2.84$7.0B
Q1'25$20.9B+6.6%$3.0B+24.4%2.58$6.8B
Q4'24 *$21.9B+6.8%$3.0B+48.0%2.56$5.5B
Q3'24$20.2B+4.7%$3.1B+42.8%2.61$6.1B
Q2'24$19.8B+3.0%$2.9B+31.7%2.49$5.5B
Q1'24$19.6B−0.2%$2.4B+22.4%2.00$5.1B
Q4'23 *$20.5B+1.0%$2.0B+36.4%1.67$4.9B
Q3'23$19.3B−1.2%$2.1B+321.7%1.82$5.3B
Q2'23$19.2B−2.6%$2.2B—1.86$4.4B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+3.5%+5.2%+10.5%+22.8%
Operating cash flow+18.5%+26.5%+17.8%+24.9%
Free cash flow+85.7%+86.1%+38.6%+34.8%
EPS (diluted)+67.7%+29.7%+28.1%+21.3%
Equity−5.3%−2.0%+13.6%+7.3%
LT debt+6.7%+5.6%+14.8%+22.7%
Diluted shares−3.4%−0.4%+3.2%+8.0%
Stock price+11.9%+6.9%+15.2%+16.8%

$100, 3 years ago

$140vs $176 in SPY

11.9% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$139vs $181 in SPY

6.9% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$412vs $412 in SPY

15.2% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,033vs $813 in SPY

16.8% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$2.90

$81.6B created / $28.1B retained

Last 10 years

$4.36

$189.2B created / $43.4B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

19.9%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

10.3%

MC vs 10× OCF

0.70

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

4.5y

SBC / FCF

4.6%

Owner earnings

$17.2B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

8.8%

Share count 5y

+7.0%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

43.4%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$-0.14

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 18.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 107.5% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 19.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

19 of 24 checks pass · 79%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/6

  • Revenue growth

    5.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    29.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    — · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na

  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    6 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    26.5% vs 5.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    12.4% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    20.7% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    18.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    19.9% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    20.4% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $27.9B vs NI $11.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

1/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    4.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    7% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    1.37 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $59.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail

  • Interest burden

    — · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    7.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail

  • Stock comp restrained

    5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    78% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    7 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    9.2% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    17.8 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    -0.7% vs 38.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    7.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202588,309—18,27910,9929.7227,9509,95517,9954,1219,9748295,59881,14759,2031,131
202481,400—18,01011,3399.6622,2938,84013,4533,30011,2286495,40974,19761,7411,173
202378,558—14,2668,3176.9318,5599,8018,75874713,0746675,13571,39964,7151,200
202279,571—6,5432,5902.0616,78113,9702,81103,0005954,50766,79669,6561,255
202180,118—6,8923,0242.4113,91712,3261,591005406,63167,07669,1021,255
202068,397—6,6363,0642.658,64011,034-2,394—19,53669410,38561,83065,3441,155
201944,998—5,7223,4684.026,8246,391433004951,52810,95828,789863
201843,310—5,3092,8883.363,8995,541-1,64201,0714241,20312,12424,718858
201740,604—4,8884,5365.203,8315,237-1,406554273061,21912,12122,559872
201637,490—4,0501,4601.692,7794,702-1,9235502355,50021,83218,236833
201532,467—2,4797330.825,4144,7246905502014,58220,46116,557823
201429,564—1,4162470.304,1464,317-1710—1965,31516,27315,663816
201324,420—996350.053,5454,025-4800—1005,89114,34514,245677
201219,719—-6,397-7,336-13.703,8622,901961—4039406,115535
201120,618—-4,279-4,718-8.814,9802,7292,251—503904,47215,785535
20104,069—7191930.54995790204—2471093,75720,492356
20093,481—5351770.4989983268—0489293,6262,288356
20082,752—4681490.42447955-507—041698—2,034355

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗