TJX
TJX Companies · Consumer Discretionary · Apparel Retail
$140.71
52w 134.75 – 170.00
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$155.4B
P/E
28.3
P/FCF
31.6
FCF yield
3.2%
ROE
53.9%
Shldr yield
2.8%
div 1.2% + bb 1.6%
What today's price assumes
At $155.4B, the market is pricing in 13.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 9.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $68 · $98 · $123 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 14.3× across 19 years, TJX would trade near $89/share (25th–75th percentile: $65–$109); it trades at 22.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+6.5%
Rev 5y
+13.4%
Rev 10y
+6.9%
EPS 5y
+133.6%
EPS 10y
+11.0%
FCF 5y
+4.2%
FCF 10y
+9.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | $14.3B | +9.2% | $1.3B | +28.6% | 1.19 | $1.1B |
| Q4'26 * | $17.7B | +8.5% | $1.8B | +26.8% | 1.57 | $3.2B |
| Q3'26 | $15.1B | +7.5% | $1.4B | +11.2% | 1.28 | $1.5B |
| Q2'26 | $14.4B | +6.9% | $1.2B | +13.1% | 1.10 | $1.8B |
| Q1'26 | $13.1B | +5.1% | $1.0B | −3.2% | 0.92 | $394.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $16.4B | −0.4% | $1.4B | −0.4% | 1.23 | $2.7B |
| Q3'25 | $14.1B | +6.0% | $1.3B | +8.9% | 1.14 | $1.0B |
| Q2'25 | $13.5B | +5.6% | $1.1B | +11.1% | 0.96 | $1.6B |
| Q1'25 | $12.5B | +5.9% | $1.1B | +20.1% | 0.93 | $737.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $16.4B | +13.0% | $1.4B | +35.2% | 1.22 | $2.8B |
| Q3'24 | $13.3B | +9.0% | $1.2B | +12.0% | 1.03 | $1.2B |
| Q2'24 | $12.8B | +7.7% | $989.0M | +22.1% | 0.85 | $1.3B |
| Q1'24 | $11.8B | +3.3% | $891.0M | +51.8% | 0.76 | $745.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +6.5% | +13.4% | +6.9% | +7.0% |
| Operating cash flow | +19.0% | +8.5% | +8.8% | +8.7% |
| Free cash flow | +23.2% | +4.2% | +9.0% | +9.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | +17.9% | +133.6% | +11.0% | +12.4% |
| Equity | +17.0% | +11.8% | +9.0% | +8.3% |
| LT debt | −13.2% | −18.9% | +1.4% | +6.1% |
| Diluted shares | −1.4% | −1.5% | −1.6% | −2.2% |
| Stock price | +16.4% | +15.7% | +15.3% | +18.3% |
$100, 3 years ago
$158vs $176 in SPY
16.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$207vs $181 in SPY
15.7% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$417vs $412 in SPY
15.3% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,251vs $813 in SPY
18.3% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$7.65
$107.5B created / $14.0B retained
Last 10 years
$6.41
$139.1B created / $21.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
57.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.26
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.4y
SBC / FCF
4.4%
Owner earnings
$4.7B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
3.0%
Share count 5y
−2.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 19.6% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 45.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 8.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
20 of 24 checks pass · 83%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
13.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
133.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
4.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
8.5% vs 13.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
9.1% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
53.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
57.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
8.1% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $6.9B vs NI $5.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
333% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.18 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$10.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
89% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.2% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
28.3 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
13.9% vs 9.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60,372 | — | — | 5,494 | 4.87 | 6,874 | 1,957 | 4,917 | 1,842 | 2,522 | 214 | 6,230 | 1,870 | 10,190 | 1,128 |
| 2025 | 56,360 | — | — | 4,864 | 4.26 | 6,116 | 1,918 | 4,198 | 1,648 | 2,513 | 183 | 5,335 | 2,866 | 8,393 | 1,142 |
| 2024 | 54,217 | — | — | 4,474 | 3.86 | 6,057 | 1,722 | 4,335 | 1,484 | 2,484 | 160 | 5,600 | 2,862 | 7,302 | 1,159 |
| 2023 | 49,936 | — | — | 3,498 | 2.97 | 4,084 | 1,457 | 2,627 | 1,339 | 2,255 | 122 | 5,477 | 2,859 | 6,364 | 1,178 |
| 2022 | 48,550 | — | — | 3,283 | 2.70 | 3,057 | 1,045 | 2,012 | 1,252 | 2,176 | 189 | 6,227 | 3,355 | 6,003 | 1,216 |
| 2021 | 32,137 | — | — | 90 | 0.07 | 4,562 | 568 | 3,994 | 278 | 202 | 59 | 10,470 | 5,333 | 5,833 | 1,215 |
| 2020 | 41,717 | — | — | 3,272 | 2.67 | 4,067 | 1,223 | 2,843 | 1,072 | 1,552 | 125 | 3,217 | 2,237 | 5,948 | 1,227 |
| 2019 | 38,973 | — | 4,763 | 3,060 | 2.43 | 4,088 | 1,125 | 2,963 | 923 | 2,407 | 104 | 3,030 | 2,234 | 5,049 | 1,259 |
| 2018 | 35,865 | — | 4,403 | 2,608 | 2.02 | 3,026 | 1,058 | 1,968 | 764 | 1,645 | 101 | 2,758 | 2,231 | 5,148 | 1,292 |
| 2017 | 33,184 | — | 4,258 | 2,298 | 1.73 | 3,627 | 1,025 | 2,602 | 651 | 1,700 | 102 | 2,930 | 2,228 | 4,511 | 1,329 |
| 2016 | 30,945 | — | 4,100 | 2,278 | 1.71 | 2,957 | 889 | 2,068 | 544 | 1,828 | 94 | 2,095 | 1,620 | 4,307 | 1,329 |
| 2015 | 29,078 | — | 3,931 | 2,215 | 1.62 | 3,008 | 912 | 2,097 | 466 | 1,651 | 88 | 2,494 | 1,615 | 4,264 | 1,368 |
| 2014 | 27,423 | — | 3,680 | 2,137 | 1.51 | 2,590 | 947 | 1,644 | 394 | 1,471 | 76 | 2,150 | 1,270 | 4,230 | 1,413 |
| 2013 | 25,878 | — | 3,442 | 1,907 | 1.31 | 3,046 | 978 | 2,067 | 324 | 1,345 | 64 | 1,812 | 775 | 3,666 | 1,454 |
| 2012 | 23,191 | — | -17 | 1,496 | 0.99 | 1,916 | 803 | 1,113 | 275 | 1,321 | 64 | 1,507 | 774 | 3,209 | 1,505 |
| 2011 | 21,942 | — | 10 | 1,343 | 0.85 | 1,976 | 707 | 1,269 | 229 | 1,193 | 59 | 1,742 | 774 | 3,100 | 1,581 |
| 2010 | 20,288 | — | — | 1,214 | 0.73 | 2,272 | 429 | 1,843 | 198 | 945 | 55 | 1,615 | 774 | 2,889 | 1,663 |
| 2009 | 19,000 | — | — | 881 | 0.53 | 1,155 | 583 | 572 | 177 | 751 | 51 | 454 | 366 | 2,135 | 1,663 |
| 2008 | 18,337 | — | — | 772 | 0.44 | 1,375 | 527 | 848 | 151 | 940 | 57 | 733 | — | 2,131 | 1,760 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.