TGT
Target Corporation · Consumer Staples · Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
$169.89
52w 83.44 – 170.75
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$77.2B
P/E
20.3
P/FCF
26.5
FCF yield
3.8%
ROE
22.9%
Shldr yield
3.3%
div 2.7% + bb 0.5%
What today's price assumes
At $77.2B, the market is pricing in 11.5% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -4.6% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $52 · $52 · $64 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.1× across 19 years, TGT would trade near $88/share (25th–75th percentile: $68–$109); it trades at 11.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−1.3%
Rev 5y
+2.3%
Rev 10y
+3.6%
EPS 5y
−1.2%
EPS 10y
+4.4%
FCF 5y
−18.5%
FCF 10y
−4.6%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | $25.4B | +6.7% | $781.0M | −24.6% | 1.71 | $716.0M |
| Q4'26 | — | — | $1.0B | −5.2% | — | $3.1B |
| Q3'26 | $25.3B | −1.6% | $689.0M | −19.3% | 1.51 | $1.1B |
| Q2'26 | $25.2B | −0.9% | $935.0M | −21.6% | 2.05 | $2.1B |
| Q1'26 | $23.8B | −2.8% | $1.0B | +10.0% | 2.27 | $275.0M |
| Q4'25 | — | — | $1.1B | −20.2% | — | $3.3B |
| Q3'25 | $25.7B | +1.1% | $854.0M | −12.0% | 1.85 | $739.0M |
| Q2'25 | $25.5B | +2.7% | $1.2B | +42.8% | 2.57 | $2.2B |
| Q1'25 | $24.5B | −3.1% | $942.0M | −0.8% | 2.03 | $1.1B |
| Q4'24 | — | — | $1.4B | +57.8% | — | $3.3B |
| Q3'24 | $25.4B | −4.2% | $971.0M | +36.4% | 2.10 | $1.9B |
| Q2'24 | $24.8B | −4.9% | $835.0M | +356.3% | 1.80 | $2.1B |
| Q1'24 | $25.3B | +0.6% | $950.0M | −5.8% | 2.05 | $1.3B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −1.3% | +2.3% | +3.6% | +3.0% |
| Operating cash flow | +17.8% | −9.0% | +1.0% | +1.5% |
| Free cash flow | −13.6% | −18.5% | −4.6% | −0.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | +10.8% | −1.2% | +4.4% | +4.8% |
| Equity | +12.9% | +2.3% | +2.2% | +0.3% |
| LT debt | +0.6% | +6.2% | +2.0% | −0.5% |
| Diluted shares | −0.7% | −2.1% | −3.2% | −3.1% |
| Stock price | +14.1% | −4.4% | +12.5% | +11.4% |
$100, 3 years ago
$149vs $176 in SPY
14.1% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$80vs $181 in SPY
-4.4% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$324vs $412 in SPY
12.5% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$505vs $813 in SPY
11.4% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$-2.31
−$28.1B created / $12.2B retained
Last 10 years
$0.69
$14.9B created / $21.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
21.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
7.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.15
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
5.1y
SBC / FCF
9.9%
Owner earnings
$2.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
3.4%
Share count 5y
−3.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.19
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 24.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -46.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -11.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
15 of 26 checks pass · 58%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
2/7
- fail
Revenue growth
2.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-1.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-18.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-9.0% vs 2.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/6
- fail
Net margin
3.5% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
4.9% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
22.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
21.5% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
2.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $6.6B vs NI $3.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
5.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
38% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.89 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$16.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
9% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-3.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
10% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
87% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.8% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
20.3 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
11.5% vs -4.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 104,780 | — | 5,117 | 3,705 | 8.13 | 6,562 | 3,727 | 2,835 | 2,053 | 408 | 281 | 5,488 | 14,398 | 16,165 | 456 |
| 2025 | 106,566 | — | 5,566 | 4,091 | 8.86 | 7,367 | 2,891 | 4,476 | 2,046 | 1,007 | 304 | 4,762 | 13,904 | 14,666 | 462 |
| 2024 | 107,412 | — | 5,707 | 4,138 | 8.94 | 8,621 | 4,806 | 3,815 | 2,011 | 0 | 251 | 3,805 | 14,151 | 13,432 | 463 |
| 2023 | 109,120 | — | 3,848 | 2,780 | 5.98 | 4,018 | 5,528 | -1,510 | 1,836 | 2,646 | 220 | 2,229 | 14,141 | 11,232 | 465 |
| 2022 | 106,005 | — | 8,946 | 6,946 | 14.10 | 8,625 | 3,544 | 5,081 | 1,548 | 7,188 | 228 | 5,911 | 11,568 | 12,827 | 493 |
| 2021 | 93,561 | — | 6,539 | 4,368 | 8.64 | 10,525 | 2,649 | 7,876 | 1,343 | 745 | 200 | 8,511 | 10,643 | 14,440 | 505 |
| 2020 | 78,112 | — | 4,658 | 3,281 | 6.36 | 7,117 | 3,027 | 4,090 | 1,330 | 1,565 | 147 | 2,577 | 9,992 | 11,833 | 516 |
| 2019 | 75,356 | — | 4,110 | 2,937 | 5.51 | 5,973 | 3,516 | 2,457 | 1,335 | 2,124 | 132 | 1,556 | 10,247 | 11,297 | 533 |
| 2018 | 72,714 | 20,754 | 4,224 | 2,914 | 5.29 | 6,935 | 2,533 | 4,402 | 1,338 | 1,046 | 112 | 2,643 | 10,440 | 11,651 | 550 |
| 2017 | 70,271 | 20,350 | 4,864 | 2,734 | 4.69 | 5,444 | 1,547 | 3,897 | 1,348 | 3,706 | 113 | 2,512 | 11,715 | 10,915 | 583 |
| 2016 | 73,785 | 21,544 | — | 3,363 | 5.31 | 5,958 | 1,438 | 4,520 | 1,362 | 3,483 | 115 | — | 11,859 | 12,965 | 633 |
| 2015 | 72,618 | 21,340 | — | -1,636 | -2.56 | 4,465 | 1,786 | 2,679 | 1,205 | 26 | 71 | — | 11,946 | 13,997 | 640 |
| 2014 | 71,279 | 21,240 | — | 1,971 | 3.07 | 6,520 | 1,886 | 4,634 | 1,006 | 1,461 | 106 | — | 11,678 | 16,231 | 642 |
| 2013 | 73,301 | — | 5,206 | 2,999 | 4.52 | 5,325 | 2,346 | 2,979 | 869 | 1,875 | 102 | — | 14,654 | 16,558 | 663 |
| 2012 | 69,865 | — | 5,250 | 2,929 | 4.28 | 5,434 | 4,368 | 1,066 | 750 | 1,842 | 90 | — | 13,697 | 15,821 | 684 |
| 2011 | 67,390 | — | 5,169 | 2,920 | 4.00 | 5,271 | 2,129 | 3,142 | 609 | 2,452 | 109 | — | 15,607 | 15,487 | 729 |
| 2010 | 65,357 | — | 4,576 | 2,488 | 3.30 | 5,881 | 1,729 | 4,152 | 496 | 423 | 103 | — | — | 15,347 | 755 |
| 2009 | 64,948 | — | — | 2,214 | 2.86 | 4,430 | 3,547 | 883 | 465 | 2,815 | 72 | — | — | 13,712 | 774 |
| 2008 | 63,367 | — | — | 2,849 | 3.33 | 4,125 | 4,369 | -244 | 442 | 2,477 | 73 | — | — | 15,307 | 851 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.