MMarketMath

TFC

Quality: Low (29/100)2 red flags

Truist Financial · Financials · Diversified Banks

$50.81

52w 40.78 – 56.20

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$62.1B

P/E

11.6

P/FCF

10.7

FCF yield

9.4%

ROE

8.1%

Shldr yield

8.4%

div 4.4% + bb 4.1%

What today's price assumes

At $62.1B, the market is pricing in -0.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 6.2% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $72 · $84 · $105 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 5.7× across 18 years, TFC would trade near $27/share (25th–75th percentile: $19–$40); it trades at 10.8× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

Rev 5y

Rev 10y

EPS 5y

+4.4%

EPS 10y

+4.1%

FCF 5y

−2.8%

FCF 10y

+6.2%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

No data

Net income

2007: $1.7B
2008: $1.5B
2009: $877.0M
2010: $854.0M
2011: $1.3B
2012: $2.0B
2013: $1.7B
2014: $2.2B
2015: $2.1B
2016: $2.4B
2017: $2.4B
2018: $3.3B
2019: $3.2B
2020: $4.5B
2021: $6.4B
2022: $6.3B
2023: −$1.0B
2024: $4.8B
2025: $5.3B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $856.0M
2008: $5.1B
2009: −$667.0M
2010: $2.5B
2011: $4.3B
2012: $3.6B
2013: $5.3B
2014: $3.2B
2015: $3.1B
2016: $3.1B
2017: $4.6B
2018: $4.0B
2019: $1.3B
2020: $6.6B
2021: $7.5B
2022: $10.5B
2023: $8.6B
2024: $2.2B
2025: $5.7B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 551.8M
2008: 552.5M
2009: 635.6M
2010: 701.0M
2011: 705.2M
2012: 708.9M
2013: 714.4M
2014: 728.4M
2015: 757.8M
2016: 814.9M
2017: 811.0M
2018: 783.5M
2019: 815.2M
2020: 1.4B
2021: 1.3B
2022: 1.3B
2023: 1.3B
2024: 1.3B
2025: 1.3B
0500.0M1.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

No data

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $1.2B
2008: $1.0B
2009: $727.0M
2010: $415.0M
2011: $446.0M
2012: $531.0M
2013: $765.0M
2014: $666.0M
2015: $789.0M
2016: $1.4B
2017: $2.6B
2018: $2.4B
2019: $1.3B
2020: $2.4B
2021: $4.1B
2022: $2.9B
2023: $2.8B
2024: $3.8B
2025: $5.2B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$20.0B$40.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

No data

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $1.3B
Q3'23: $1.2B
Q4'23: −$5.1B
Q1'24: $1.2B
Q2'24: $922.0M
Q3'24: $1.4B
Q4'24: $1.3B
Q1'25: $1.3B
Q2'25: $1.2B
Q3'25: $1.5B
Q4'25: $1.4B
Q1'26: $1.5B
Q2'26: $1.6B
−$4.0B−$2.0B$0
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$1.6B+25.2%1.23$1.0B
Q1'26$1.5B+17.4%1.09$679.0M
Q4'25 *$1.4B+6.1%1.01$2.6B
Q3'25$1.5B+0.7%1.04$1.5B
Q2'25$1.2B+34.5%0.90$914.0M
Q1'25$1.3B+5.1%0.87$746.0M
Q4'24 *$1.3B0.94$775.0M
Q3'24$1.4B+21.9%0.99$1.5B
Q2'24$922.0M−31.4%0.62$845.0M
Q1'24$1.2B−20.8%0.81−$990.0M
Q4'23 *−$5.1B−402.6%-3.86$2.4B
Q3'23$1.2B−27.7%0.80$2.4B
Q2'23$1.3B−12.2%0.92$3.7B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue
Operating cash flow−19.7%−5.1%+6.2%+4.7%
Free cash flow−18.3%−2.8%+6.2%+5.8%
EPS (diluted)−4.8%+4.4%+4.1%+8.3%
Equity+2.5%−1.7%+9.1%+9.6%
LT debt−1.0%+1.2%+5.8%+4.5%
Diluted shares−0.9%−0.8%+5.6%+4.2%
Stock price+24.0%+2.3%+7.0%+9.5%

$100, 3 years ago

$191vs $176 in SPY

24.0% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$112vs $181 in SPY

2.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$196vs $412 in SPY

7.0% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$392vs $813 in SPY

9.5% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$1.79

$15.1B created / $8.5B retained

Last 10 years

$2.83

$49.4B created / $17.4B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

5.4%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

8.6%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.07

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

7.3y

SBC / FCF

5.5%

Owner earnings

$5.4B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

8.8%

Share count 5y

+4.9%

per year; negative = buybacks

Checklist

12 of 20 checks pass · 60%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

2/5

  • Revenue growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • EPS growth

    4.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • FCF growth

    -2.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Revenue rises consistently

    0 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    na

Profitability

1/3

  • Net margin

    · ≥ 8%

    na
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    8.1% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    5.4% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    · ≥ 5%

    na
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $5.7B vs NI $5.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    7.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail
  • Cash cushion

    87% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    0.64 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $65.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    4.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    6% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    90% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    7 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    9.4% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    11.6 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    -0.9% vs 6.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    8.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Heavy debt load

Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
20255,3073.825,7395,7392,6722,50031736,37741,96365,1891,303
20244,8403.362,1642,1642,7701,00029239,76834,95663,6791,331
2023-1,047-1.098,6318,6312,770029830,64438,91859,2531,332
20226,2674.4311,08156410,5172,65625026121,42143,20360,5371,338
20216,4374.477,8924427,4502,4851,61632020,29535,91369,2711,349
20204,4923.087,4378156,6222,424035318,86839,59770,9121,358
20193,2373.711,5202241,2961,309016519,06541,33966,558815
20183,2573.914,3493633,9861,2041,2051413,84423,70930,178783
20172,4152.744,6354,6351,0051,6131322,95623,64829,695811
20162,4422.773,1153,1159255201154,28021,96529,926815
20152,1232.563,1313,13178901064,16723,76927,340758
20142,2062.723,2103,2106661022,32523,31224,377728
20131,7302.195,3085,308765962,16521,49322,780714
20122,0282.703,7141453,569531973,03919,11421,193709
20111,3321.834,5652244,341446983,57621,80317,480705
20108541.162,8984282,470415792,08721,73016,498701
20098771.15-493174-6677270622,64921,37616,241636
20081,5292.715,3532195,1341,0190752,74018,03216,081552
20071,7463.141,112256856962254703,11712,664552

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.