TER
Teradyne · Information Technology · Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
$364.90
52w 109.56 – 487.91
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$57.0B
P/E
106.0
P/FCF
130.4
FCF yield
0.8%
ROE
19.8%
Shldr yield
1.3%
div 0.1% + bb 1.2%
What today's price assumes
At $57.0B, the market is pricing in 33.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 3.1% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $41 · $41 · $51 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 14.1× across 18 years, TER would trade near $61/share (25th–75th percentile: $43–$97); it trades at 84.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+0.4%
Rev 5y
+0.4%
Rev 10y
+6.9%
EPS 5y
−4.1%
EPS 10y
+13.6%
FCF 5y
−8.0%
FCF 10y
+3.1%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $1.3B | +103.9% | $374.5M | +377.9% | 2.38 | $469.1M |
| Q1'26 | $1.3B | +87.0% | $398.9M | +303.4% | 2.53 | $265.1M |
| Q4'25 * | $1.1B | +43.9% | $257.2M | +75.9% | 1.62 | $281.6M |
| Q3'25 | $769.2M | +4.3% | $119.6M | −17.9% | 0.75 | $49.0M |
| Q2'25 | $651.8M | −10.7% | $78.4M | −57.9% | 0.49 | $182.1M |
| Q1'25 | $685.7M | +14.3% | $98.9M | +54.1% | 0.61 | $161.6M |
| Q4'24 * | $752.9M | +12.3% | $146.3M | +24.9% | 0.89 | $282.6M |
| Q3'24 | $737.3M | +4.8% | $145.6M | +13.7% | 0.89 | $166.3M |
| Q2'24 | $729.9M | +6.6% | $186.3M | +55.2% | 1.14 | $216.1M |
| Q1'24 | $599.8M | −2.9% | $64.2M | −23.1% | 0.40 | $7.3M |
| Q4'23 * | $670.6M | −8.4% | $117.1M | −32.1% | 0.72 | $248.8M |
| Q3'23 | $703.7M | −14.9% | $128.1M | −30.2% | 0.78 | $174.3M |
| Q2'23 | $684.4M | −18.6% | $120.0M | −39.3% | 0.73 | $142.8M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +0.4% | +0.4% | +6.9% | +4.9% |
| Operating cash flow | +5.3% | −4.9% | +4.8% | +1.2% |
| Free cash flow | +2.8% | −8.0% | +3.1% | −0.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | −6.3% | −4.1% | +13.6% | +4.7% |
| Equity | +4.5% | +4.8% | +3.6% | +6.3% |
| LT debt | +6.6% | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −2.0% | −2.7% | −2.9% | −2.3% |
| Stock price | +50.6% | +25.1% | +33.8% | +26.2% |
$100, 3 years ago
$342vs $176 in SPY
50.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$306vs $181 in SPY
25.1% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,832vs $412 in SPY
33.8% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$3,279vs $813 in SPY
26.2% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$6.21
$18.1B created / $2.9B retained
Last 10 years
$7.62
$34.6B created / $4.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
24.1%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.2%
MC vs 10× OCF
8.71
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
14.2%
Owner earnings
$386.4M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.7%
Share count 5y
−0.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
17.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$2.45
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 33.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -16.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -5.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 27 checks pass · 63%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
2/7
- fail
Revenue growth
0.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-4.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-8.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-4.9% vs 0.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
17.4% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
20.4% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
58.2% vs 59.2% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
19.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
24.1% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
14.1% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $674.4M vs NI $554.0M · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
— · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$2.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
1% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
14% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
173% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
0.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
106.0 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
33.7% vs 3.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3,190 | 1,857 | 650 | 554 | 3.47 | 674 | 224 | 450 | 76 | 702 | 64 | 294 | — | 2,796 | 160 |
| 2024 | 2,820 | 1,649 | 594 | 542 | 3.32 | 672 | 198 | 474 | 76 | 199 | 60 | 553 | — | 2,819 | 163 |
| 2023 | 2,676 | 1,537 | 501 | 449 | 2.73 | 585 | 160 | 426 | 68 | 397 | 58 | 758 | — | 2,526 | 164 |
| 2022 | 3,155 | 1,867 | 832 | 716 | 4.22 | 578 | 163 | 415 | 70 | 752 | 48 | 855 | — | 2,451 | 170 |
| 2021 | 3,703 | 2,207 | 1,201 | 1,015 | 5.53 | 1,098 | 132 | 966 | 66 | 600 | 46 | 1,122 | — | 2,562 | 184 |
| 2020 | 3,121 | 1,786 | 928 | 784 | 4.28 | 869 | 185 | 684 | 66 | 88 | 45 | 914 | — | 2,207 | 183 |
| 2019 | 2,295 | 1,340 | 554 | 467 | 2.60 | 579 | 135 | 444 | 61 | 500 | 38 | 774 | — | 1,480 | 179 |
| 2018 | 2,101 | 1,220 | 474 | 452 | 2.35 | 477 | 114 | 363 | 67 | 823 | 34 | 927 | — | 1,522 | 193 |
| 2017 | 2,137 | 1,221 | 525 | 258 | 1.28 | 626 | 105 | 521 | 55 | 200 | 34 | 430 | — | 1,954 | 202 |
| 2016 | 1,753 | 959 | -63 | -43 | -0.21 | 455 | 85 | 370 | 49 | 146 | 31 | 308 | — | 1,829 | 203 |
| 2015 | 1,640 | 916 | 243 | 206 | 0.97 | 423 | 90 | 333 | 51 | 300 | 30 | 265 | — | 1,966 | 213 |
| 2014 | 1,648 | 879 | 96 | 81 | 0.37 | 492 | 169 | 323 | 37 | — | 40 | 294 | 0 | 2,079 | 223 |
| 2013 | 1,428 | 809 | 191 | 165 | 0.70 | 267 | 107 | 161 | — | — | 37 | 342 | 0 | 1,985 | 236 |
| 2012 | 1,657 | 886 | 287 | 217 | 0.94 | 403 | 119 | 284 | — | — | 40 | 339 | 171 | 1,778 | 230 |
| 2011 | 1,429 | 712 | 231 | 370 | 1.63 | 275 | 86 | 189 | — | 31 | 32 | 574 | 160 | 1,505 | 227 |
| 2010 | 1,566 | 858 | 415 | 385 | 1.75 | 566 | 76 | 490 | — | — | 30 | 398 | 150 | 1,122 | 227 |
| 2009 | 777 | 299 | -125 | -134 | -0.77 | 122 | 41 | 81 | — | — | 24 | 417 | 141 | 665 | 174 |
| 2008 | 1,107 | 498 | -381 | -394 | -2.31 | 164 | 87 | 77 | — | 91 | 22 | 323 | — | 710 | 171 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.