MMarketMath

TEL

StalwartQuality: High (81/100)

TE Connectivity · Information Technology · Electronic Manufacturing Services

$202.41

52w 190.27 – 252.56

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$58.6B

P/E

32.0

P/FCF

18.4

FCF yield

5.4%

ROE

14.6%

Shldr yield

3.6%

div 1.4% + bb 2.3%

What today's price assumes

At $58.6B, the market is pricing in 6.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 9.2% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $169 · $247 · $308 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 10.1× across 19 years, TEL would trade near $144/share (25th–75th percentile: $105–$178); it trades at 14.2× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+2.0%

Rev 5y

+7.2%

Rev 10y

+3.5%

EPS 5y

—

EPS 10y

+0.4%

FCF 5y

+17.5%

FCF 10y

+9.2%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $12.6B
2008: $14.4B
2009: $10.3B
2010: $11.7B
2011: $13.8B
2012: $13.3B
2013: $11.4B
2014: $12.0B
2015: $12.2B
2016: $11.4B
2017: $12.2B
2018: $14.0B
2019: $13.4B
2020: $12.2B
2021: $14.9B
2022: $16.3B
2023: $16.0B
2024: $15.8B
2025: $17.3B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: −$554.0M
2008: $1.7B
2009: −$3.3B
2010: $1.1B
2011: $1.3B
2012: $1.1B
2013: $1.3B
2014: $1.8B
2015: $2.4B
2016: $2.0B
2017: $1.7B
2018: $2.6B
2019: $1.8B
2020: −$241.0M
2021: $2.3B
2022: $2.4B
2023: $1.9B
2024: $3.2B
2025: $1.8B
−$2.0B$0$2.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $662.0M
2008: $379.0M
2009: $1.0B
2010: $1.3B
2011: $1.2B
2012: $1.4B
2013: $1.5B
2014: $1.4B
2015: $1.3B
2016: $1.3B
2017: $1.6B
2018: $1.5B
2019: $1.7B
2020: $1.4B
2021: $2.0B
2022: $1.7B
2023: $2.4B
2024: $2.8B
2025: $3.2B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 497.0M
2008: 486.0M
2009: 459.0M
2010: 457.0M
2011: 443.0M
2012: 430.0M
2013: 423.0M
2014: 417.0M
2015: 411.0M
2016: 369.0M
2017: 358.0M
2018: 353.0M
2019: 340.0M
2020: 332.0M
2021: 333.0M
2022: 325.0M
2023: 317.0M
2024: 309.0M
2025: 299.0M
0200.0M400.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-20%0%20%40%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2008: $1.5B
2009: $446.0M
2010: $777.0M
2011: $1.2B
2012: $517.0M
2013: $1.2B
2014: $1.0B
2015: $1.5B
2016: $3.3B
2017: $1.2B
2018: $1.5B
2019: $1.7B
2020: $1.1B
2021: $1.5B
2022: $2.1B
2023: $1.7B
2024: $2.8B
2025: $2.1B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$2.0B$4.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q3'23: $4.0B
Q4'23: $4.0B
Q1'24: $3.8B
Q2'24: $4.0B
Q3'24: $4.0B
Q4'24: $4.1B
Q1'25: $3.8B
Q2'25: $4.1B
Q3'25: $4.5B
Q4'25: $4.7B
Q1'26: $4.7B
Q2'26: $4.7B
Q3'26: $5.2B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
24
25
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q3'23: $528.0M
Q4'23: $552.0M
Q1'24: $1.8B
Q2'24: $541.0M
Q3'24: $573.0M
Q4'24: $276.0M
Q1'25: $528.0M
Q2'25: $13.0M
Q3'25: $638.0M
Q4'25: $663.0M
Q1'26: $750.0M
Q2'26: $855.0M
Q3'26: $748.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
23
24
25
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q3'26$5.2B+13.8%$748.0M+17.2%2.55$1.2B
Q2'26$4.7B+14.5%$855.0M+6476.9%2.90$947.0M
Q1'26$4.7B+21.7%$750.0M+42.0%2.53$865.0M
Q4'25 *$4.7B+16.7%$663.0M+140.2%2.23$1.4B
Q3'25$4.5B+13.9%$638.0M+11.3%2.14$1.2B
Q2'25$4.1B+4.4%$13.0M−97.6%0.04$653.0M
Q1'25$3.8B+0.1%$528.0M−70.7%1.75$878.0M
Q4'24 *$4.1B+0.8%$276.0M−50.0%0.96$1.0B
Q3'24$4.0B−0.5%$573.0M+8.5%1.86$1.0B
Q2'24$4.0B−4.6%$541.0M+24.9%1.75$710.0M
Q1'24$3.8B−0.3%$1.8B+354.2%5.76$719.0M
Q4'23 *$4.0B−7.4%$552.0M−22.0%1.76$1.1B
Q3'23$4.0B−2.4%$528.0M−11.1%1.67$779.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+2.0%+7.2%+3.5%+2.6%
Operating cash flow+18.8%+15.8%+7.9%+6.2%
Free cash flow+23.5%+17.5%+9.2%+6.2%
EPS (diluted)−6.2%+2.2%+0.4%+6.5%
Equity+5.2%+6.0%+2.8%+3.9%
LT debt+13.7%+7.0%+3.6%+5.1%
Diluted shares−2.7%−2.1%−3.1%−2.8%
Stock price+16.8%+7.7%+14.2%+15.5%

$100, 3 years ago

$159vs $176 in SPY

16.8% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$145vs $181 in SPY

7.7% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$377vs $412 in SPY

14.2% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$871vs $813 in SPY

15.5% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$5.48

$43.9B created / $8.0B retained

Last 10 years

$3.96

$51.5B created / $13.0B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

23.8%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

6.6%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.42

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.5y

SBC / FCF

4.7%

Owner earnings

$3.1B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

5.2%

Share count 5y

−2.8%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

25.0%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.13

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 26.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 50.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 13.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

23 of 26 checks pass · 88%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/6

  • Revenue growth

    7.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    — · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na

  • FCF growth

    17.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    15.8% vs 7.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    10.7% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    18.6% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    35.2% vs 32.2% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass

  • Return on equity

    14.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    23.8% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    18.6% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $4.1B vs NI $1.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass

  • Cash cushion

    26% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.38 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $12.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    2% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -2.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    67% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

3/4

  • FCF yield

    5.4% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    32.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    6.6% vs 9.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    3.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202517,2626,0793,2111,8426.164,1399363,2038031,3471491,2554,84212,585299
202415,8455,4562,7963,19310.333,4776802,7977602,0621271,3193,33212,355309
202316,0345,0552,3041,9106.033,1327322,4007259451231,6613,52911,551317
202216,2815,2442,7562,4287.472,4687681,7006851,4121191,0883,29210,802325
202114,9234,8872,4342,2616.792,6766901,986647831941,2033,58910,634333
202012,1723,735537-241-0.731,9925601,432625523749453,4529,383332
201913,4484,3941,9781,8445.422,4227491,6736081,091759273,39510,570340
201813,9884,7452,3312,5657.272,4519351,516588879958483,03710,831353
201712,1854,1831,8761,6834.702,3216791,642546614951,2183,6349,751358
201611,3523,8271,8082,0095.441,9476031,3445092,787876473,7398,485369
201512,2334,0871,7492,4205.891,9306001,3305021,023893,3293,3869,585411
201411,9733,9721,8051,7814.272,0836351,448443578772,4573,2819,007417
201311,3903,6511,3851,2773.022,0465811,465384844711,4032,3038,380423
201213,2824,0461,5181,1152.591,9475331,414332185681,5892,6967,971430
201113,7784,2711,6871,2502.811,7795741,205296865711,2182,6677,474443
201011,6813,6431,4521,1032.411,6793801,299289488611,9902,3077,048457
200910,2562,536-3,474-3,265-7.111,3293281,001294152501,5212,3166,996459
200814,3734,1731,6631,6873.479896103792711,242551,0903,16111,073486
200712,5743,719655-554-1.111,525863662———944—11,377497

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗