T
AT&T · Communication Services · Integrated Telecommunication Services
$25.69
52w 19.89 – 29.79
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$176.0B
P/E
7.9
P/FCF
8.9
FCF yield
11.2%
ROE
17.4%
Shldr yield
7.3%
div 4.7% + bb 2.6%
What today's price assumes
At $176.0B, the market is pricing in -3.5% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 1.6% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $36 · $36 · $45 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 2.3× across 18 years, T would trade near $14/share (25th–75th percentile: $9–$16); it trades at 4.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+1.3%
Rev 5y
−2.6%
Rev 10y
−1.5%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+2.5%
FCF 5y
−7.3%
FCF 10y
+1.6%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $31.6B | +2.3% | $4.6B | +2.8% | 0.66 | — |
| Q1'26 | $31.5B | +2.9% | $3.8B | −12.0% | 0.54 | — |
| Q4'25 * | $33.5B | +3.6% | $3.8B | −7.2% | 0.52 | $11.3B |
| Q3'25 | $30.7B | +1.6% | $9.3B | — | 1.29 | $10.2B |
| Q2'25 | $30.8B | +3.5% | $4.5B | +25.1% | 0.62 | $9.8B |
| Q1'25 | $30.6B | +2.0% | $4.4B | +26.3% | 0.61 | $9.0B |
| Q4'24 * | $32.3B | +0.9% | $4.1B | — | 0.56 | $11.9B |
| Q3'24 | $30.2B | −0.5% | −$174.0M | −105.0% | -0.03 | $10.2B |
| Q2'24 | $29.8B | −0.4% | $3.6B | −19.9% | 0.49 | $9.1B |
| Q1'24 | $30.0B | −0.4% | $3.4B | −18.5% | 0.47 | $7.5B |
| Q4'23 | $32.0B | +2.2% | — | — | — | $11.4B |
| Q3'23 | $30.4B | +1.0% | $3.5B | −42.0% | 0.48 | $10.3B |
| Q2'23 | $29.9B | +0.9% | $4.5B | +8.0% | 0.61 | $9.9B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +1.3% | −2.6% | −1.5% | +0.1% |
| Operating cash flow | +4.0% | −1.4% | +1.2% | +0.9% |
| Free cash flow | +6.3% | −7.3% | +1.6% | +1.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | +2.7% | +8.2% | +2.5% | −0.6% |
| Equity | +5.9% | −6.7% | +0.2% | +0.8% |
| LT debt | +0.4% | −2.8% | +1.3% | +5.7% |
| Diluted shares | −1.8% | −0.8% | +2.4% | +1.3% |
| Stock price | +26.7% | +10.9% | +5.3% | +8.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$203vs $176 in SPY
26.7% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$168vs $181 in SPY
10.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$167vs $412 in SPY
5.3% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$341vs $813 in SPY
8.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$7.42
$69.8B created / $9.4B retained
Last 10 years
$8.53
$109.5B created / $12.8B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
15.4%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
13.9%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.43
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
6.9y
SBC / FCF
2.8%
Owner earnings
$18.9B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
10.9%
Share count 5y
+1.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.35
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
17 of 25 checks pass · 68%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
3/6
- fail
Revenue growth
-2.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-7.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
4 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-1.4% vs -2.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
17.5% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
19.2% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
17.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
15.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
15.5% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $40.3B vs NI $22.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
6.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
14% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.07 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$126.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
28% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
65% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
11.2% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
7.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-3.5% vs 1.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
7.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 125,648 | — | 24,162 | 21,953 | 3.04 | 40,284 | 20,842 | 19,442 | 8,180 | 4,500 | 536 | 18,234 | 134,718 | 126,491 | 7,179 |
| 2024 | 122,336 | — | 19,049 | 10,948 | 1.49 | 38,771 | 20,263 | 18,508 | 8,208 | 215 | 505 | 3,298 | 122,116 | 118,245 | 7,204 |
| 2023 | 122,428 | — | 23,461 | 14,400 | 1.97 | 38,314 | 17,853 | 20,461 | 8,136 | 194 | 479 | 6,722 | 133,402 | 117,442 | 7,258 |
| 2022 | 120,741 | — | -4,587 | -8,524 | -1.13 | 35,812 | 19,626 | 16,186 | 9,859 | 890 | 518 | 3,701 | 133,207 | 106,457 | 7,587 |
| 2021 | 134,038 | — | 25,897 | 20,081 | 2.73 | 41,957 | 15,545 | 26,412 | 15,068 | 202 | 447 | 19,223 | 167,476 | 183,855 | 7,503 |
| 2020 | 143,050 | — | 8,372 | -5,176 | -0.75 | 43,130 | 14,690 | 28,440 | 14,956 | 5,498 | 422 | 7,924 | 155,209 | 179,240 | 7,466 |
| 2019 | 181,193 | — | 27,955 | 13,903 | 1.89 | 48,668 | 19,635 | 29,033 | 14,888 | 2,417 | 819 | 9,702 | 161,109 | 201,934 | 7,348 |
| 2018 | 170,756 | — | 26,096 | 19,370 | 2.85 | 43,602 | 21,251 | 22,351 | 13,410 | 609 | 463 | 5,204 | 166,250 | 193,884 | 6,806 |
| 2017 | 160,546 | — | 19,970 | 29,450 | 4.76 | 38,010 | 20,647 | 17,363 | 12,038 | 463 | 480 | 50,498 | 125,972 | 142,007 | 6,183 |
| 2016 | 163,786 | — | 23,543 | 12,976 | 2.10 | 38,442 | 21,516 | 16,926 | 11,797 | 512 | 653 | 5,788 | 113,681 | 124,110 | 6,189 |
| 2015 | 146,801 | — | 24,785 | 13,345 | 2.37 | 35,880 | 19,218 | 16,662 | 10,200 | 269 | 451 | 5,121 | 118,515 | 123,640 | 5,646 |
| 2014 | 132,447 | — | 12,212 | 6,442 | 1.24 | 31,338 | 21,199 | 10,139 | 9,552 | 1,617 | 318 | 8,603 | 75,778 | 90,270 | 5,221 |
| 2013 | 128,752 | — | 30,752 | 18,418 | 3.42 | 34,796 | 20,944 | 13,852 | 9,696 | 13,028 | 458 | 3,339 | 69,290 | 94,610 | 5,385 |
| 2012 | 127,434 | — | 12,997 | 7,264 | 1.25 | 39,176 | 19,465 | 19,711 | 10,241 | 12,752 | 511 | 4,868 | 66,358 | 95,653 | 5,821 |
| 2011 | 126,723 | — | 9,218 | 3,944 | 0.66 | 34,743 | 20,110 | 14,633 | 10,172 | 0 | 489 | 3,045 | 61,300 | 105,797 | 5,950 |
| 2010 | 124,280 | — | 19,573 | 19,864 | 3.35 | 35,222 | 19,530 | 15,692 | 9,916 | 0 | 513 | 1,201 | 58,971 | 111,950 | 5,938 |
| 2009 | 122,513 | — | 21,000 | 12,138 | 2.05 | 34,405 | 16,554 | 17,851 | 9,670 | 0 | — | 3,277 | 64,720 | 101,989 | 5,924 |
| 2008 | 123,443 | — | -1,690 | -2,625 | -0.44 | 33,610 | 19,631 | 13,979 | 9,507 | 6,077 | — | 1,727 | 60,872 | 96,364 | 5,958 |
| 2007 | 118,928 | — | 20,404 | 11,951 | 1.94 | 34,242 | 17,717 | 16,525 | 8,743 | 10,390 | — | 1,905 | — | 115,256 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.