MMarketMath

SYK

StalwartQuality: High (76/100)

Stryker Corporation · Health Care · Health Care Equipment

$327.81

52w 281.00 – 396.86

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$125.7B

P/E

38.9

P/FCF

29.5

FCF yield

3.4%

ROE

14.5%

Shldr yield

1.0%

div 1.0% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $125.7B, the market is pricing in 13.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 19.7% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $170 · $382 · $550 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 24.1× across 18 years, SYK would trade near $316/share (25th–75th percentile: $169–$448); it trades at 24.9× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+10.8%

Rev 5y

+11.8%

Rev 10y

+9.7%

EPS 5y

+14.9%

EPS 10y

+8.3%

FCF 5y

+9.0%

FCF 10y

+19.7%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $6.0B
2008: $6.7B
2009: $6.7B
2010: $7.3B
2011: $8.3B
2012: $8.7B
2013: $9.0B
2014: $9.7B
2015: $9.9B
2016: $11.3B
2017: $12.4B
2018: $13.6B
2019: $14.9B
2020: $14.4B
2021: $17.1B
2022: $18.4B
2023: $20.5B
2024: $22.6B
2025: $25.1B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $1.0B
2008: $1.1B
2009: $1.1B
2010: $1.3B
2011: $1.3B
2012: $1.3B
2013: $1.0B
2014: $515.0M
2015: $1.4B
2016: $1.6B
2017: $1.0B
2018: $3.6B
2019: $2.1B
2020: $1.6B
2021: $2.0B
2022: $2.4B
2023: $3.2B
2024: $3.0B
2025: $3.2B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $840.6M
2008: $1.0B
2009: $1.3B
2010: $1.4B
2011: $1.2B
2012: $1.4B
2013: $1.7B
2014: $1.5B
2015: $711.0M
2016: $1.4B
2017: $961.0M
2018: $2.0B
2019: $1.5B
2020: $2.8B
2021: $2.7B
2022: $2.0B
2023: $3.1B
2024: $3.5B
2025: $4.3B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 413.6M
2009: 399.4M
2010: 399.5M
2011: 389.5M
2012: 383.0M
2013: 382.1M
2014: 382.8M
2015: 380.9M
2016: 378.5M
2017: 380.1M
2018: 380.3M
2019: 379.9M
2020: 380.3M
2021: 382.3M
2022: 382.2M
2023: 383.7M
2024: 385.6M
2025: 386.5M
0200.0M400.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

20%40%60%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $89.7M
2008: $1.1B
2009: $198.0M
2010: $664.0M
2011: $901.0M
2012: $432.0M
2013: $718.0M
2014: $562.0M
2015: $1.2B
2016: $581.0M
2017: $866.0M
2018: $1.0B
2019: $1.1B
2020: $863.0M
2021: $950.0M
2022: $1.1B
2023: $1.1B
2024: $1.2B
2025: $1.3B
$0$500.0M$1.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $5.0B
Q3'23: $4.9B
Q4'23: $5.8B
Q1'24: $5.2B
Q2'24: $5.4B
Q3'24: $5.5B
Q4'24: $6.4B
Q1'25: $5.9B
Q2'25: $6.0B
Q3'25: $6.1B
Q4'25: $7.2B
Q1'26: $6.0B
Q2'26: $6.6B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $738.0M
Q3'23: $692.0M
Q4'23: $1.1B
Q1'24: $788.0M
Q2'24: $825.0M
Q3'24: $834.0M
Q4'24: $546.0M
Q1'25: $654.0M
Q2'25: $884.0M
Q3'25: $859.0M
Q4'25: $849.0M
Q1'26: $745.0M
Q2'26: $1.3B
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$6.6B+9.4%$1.3B+44.3%3.30$1.3B
Q1'26$6.0B+2.6%$745.0M+13.9%1.93$581.0M
Q4'25$7.2B+11.4%$849.0M+55.5%2.20$2.1B
Q3'25$6.1B+10.2%$859.0M+3.0%2.22$1.5B
Q2'25$6.0B+11.1%$884.0M+7.2%2.29$1.1B
Q1'25$5.9B+11.9%$654.0M−17.0%1.69$250.0M
Q4'24$6.4B+10.7%$546.0M−52.2%1.41$1.9B
Q3'24$5.5B+11.9%$834.0M+20.5%2.16$1.5B
Q2'24$5.4B+8.5%$825.0M+11.8%2.14$633.0M
Q1'24$5.2B+9.7%$788.0M+33.1%2.05$204.0M
Q4'23$5.8B+11.8%$1.1B+103.0%2.98$1.5B
Q3'23$4.9B+9.6%$692.0M−15.2%1.80$1.1B
Q2'23$5.0B+11.2%$738.0M+12.5%1.93$688.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+10.8%+11.8%+9.7%+8.6%
Operating cash flow+24.3%+9.0%+17.8%+8.2%
Free cash flow+28.1%+9.0%+19.7%+7.9%
EPS (diluted)+10.8%+14.9%+8.3%+6.7%
Equity+10.5%+11.4%+10.2%+7.9%
LT debt+7.8%+2.3%+16.5%+19.7%
Diluted shares+0.4%+0.3%+0.1%−0.2%
Stock price+6.0%+4.5%+12.2%+15.0%

$100, 3 years ago

$119vs $176 in SPY

6.0% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$125vs $181 in SPY

4.5% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$317vs $412 in SPY

12.2% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$810vs $813 in SPY

15.0% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$7.73

$62.7B created / $8.1B retained

Last 10 years

$7.50

$108.5B created / $14.5B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

13.5%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.7%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.51

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

3.5y

SBC / FCF

5.7%

Owner earnings

$4.0B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

3.2%

Share count 5y

−0.4%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

15.4%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.10

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 52.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 17.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 9.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

21 of 27 checks pass · 78%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/7

  • Revenue growth

    11.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    14.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    9.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    9.0% vs 11.8% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    12.9% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    19.5% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    64.0% vs 62.8% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass

  • Return on equity

    14.5% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    13.5% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    17.1% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $5.0B vs NI $3.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

3/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    3.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    27% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.66 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $22.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    12% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -0.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    6% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    30% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    4 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    3.4% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    38.9 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    13.0% vs 19.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    1.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202525,11616,0654,8893,2468.405,0447614,2831,284—2434,01114,85922,420387
202422,59514,4403,6892,9937.764,2427553,4871,219—2293,65212,18820,634386
202320,49813,0583,8883,1658.253,7115753,1361,139—2052,97110,90118,593384
202218,44911,5782,8412,3586.172,6245882,0361,051—1681,84411,85716,616382
202117,10810,9682,5841,9945.213,2635252,73895001712,94412,47214,877382
202014,3519,0572,2231,5994.203,2774872,79086301422,94313,23013,084380
201914,8849,6962,7132,0835.482,1916491,5427783071274,33710,23112,807380
201813,6018,9382,5373,5539.342,6105722,0387033001193,6168,48611,730380
201712,4448,1802,2971,0202.681,5595989616362301132,5426,5909,966380
201611,3257,5042,1751,6474.351,9154901,42556813973,3166,6869,550379
20159,9466,6021,8611,4393.78981270711521700863,3793,2308,511381
20149,6756,3561,2465151.341,7822331,549462100771,7953,2468,595383
20139,0216,0191,2561,0062.631,8861951,691401317761,3392,7399,047382
20128,6575,8761,7411,2983.391,6572101,447324108751,3951,7468,597383
20118,3075,4961,6861,3453.451,4342261,208279622759051,7517,683390
20107,3205,0341,7511,2733.191,5471821,365238426691,7589967,174400
20096,7234,5391,5941,1072.771,4611311,330198062659186,596399
20086,7184,5871,5191,1482.781,1761551,0211361,00066701—5,408414
20076,0014,1351,3071,0172.441,02818884190061291—5,379—

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗