MMarketMath

STX

Slow growerQuality: High (87/100)

Seagate Technology · Information Technology · Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

$794.65

52w 158.68 – 1,145.00

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$180.1B

P/E

56.6

P/FCF

58.0

FCF yield

1.7%

ROE

146.9%

Shldr yield

0.4%

div 0.4% + bb 0.1%

What today's price assumes

At $180.1B, the market is pricing in 22.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 11.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $209 · $349 · $435 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 5.0× across 18 years, STX would trade near $82/share (25th–75th percentile: $59–$178); it trades at 49.0× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+18.2%

Rev 5y

+2.7%

Rev 10y

+0.9%

EPS 5y

+21.0%

EPS 10y

+32.7%

FCF 5y

+22.4%

FCF 10y

+11.0%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2009–2026, from SEC filings

Revenue

2009: $9.8B
2010: $11.4B
2011: $11.0B
2012: $14.9B
2013: $14.4B
2014: $13.7B
2015: $13.7B
2016: $11.2B
2017: $10.8B
2018: $11.2B
2019: $10.4B
2020: $10.5B
2021: $10.7B
2022: $11.7B
2023: $7.4B
2024: $6.6B
2025: $9.1B
2026: $12.2B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Net income

2009: −$3.1B
2010: $1.6B
2011: $511.0M
2012: $2.9B
2013: $1.8B
2014: $1.6B
2015: $1.7B
2016: $248.0M
2017: $772.0M
2018: $1.2B
2019: $2.0B
2020: $1.0B
2021: $1.3B
2022: $1.6B
2023: −$529.0M
2024: $335.0M
2025: $1.5B
2026: $3.2B
−$2.0B$0$2.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Free cash flow

2009: $190.0M
2010: $1.3B
2011: $421.0M
2012: $2.6B
2013: $2.3B
2014: $2.0B
2015: $1.9B
2016: $1.1B
2017: $1.5B
2018: $1.7B
2019: $1.2B
2020: $1.1B
2021: $1.1B
2022: $1.3B
2023: $626.0M
2024: $664.0M
2025: $818.0M
2026: $3.1B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2009: 488.0M
2010: 514.0M
2011: 467.0M
2012: 441.0M
2013: 382.0M
2014: 347.0M
2015: 331.0M
2016: 302.0M
2017: 299.0M
2018: 292.0M
2019: 285.0M
2020: 265.0M
2021: 245.0M
2022: 224.0M
2023: 207.0M
2024: 212.0M
2025: 217.0M
2026: 229.0M
0200.0M400.0M
09
12
15
18
21
24

Margins

-20%0%20%091215182124
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2009: $132.0M
2010: $584.0M
2011: $896.0M
2012: $2.8B
2013: $2.2B
2014: $2.5B
2015: $1.8B
2016: $1.8B
2017: $1.0B
2018: $1.1B
2019: $1.7B
2020: $1.5B
2021: $2.7B
2022: $2.4B
2023: $990.0M
2024: $585.0M
2025: $600.0M
2026: $810.0M
$0$1.0B$2.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$2.0B$4.0B091215182124
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q4'23: $1.6B
Q1'24: $1.5B
Q2'24: $1.6B
Q3'24: $1.7B
Q4'24: $1.9B
Q1'25: $2.2B
Q2'25: $2.3B
Q3'25: $2.2B
Q4'25: $2.4B
Q1'26: $2.6B
Q2'26: $2.8B
Q3'26: $3.1B
Q4'26: $3.6B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
25
26
26

Net income by quarter

Q4'23: −$92.0M
Q1'24: −$184.0M
Q2'24: −$19.0M
Q3'24: $25.0M
Q4'24: $513.0M
Q1'25: $305.0M
Q2'25: $336.0M
Q3'25: $340.0M
Q4'25: $488.0M
Q1'26: $549.0M
Q2'26: $593.0M
Q3'26: $748.0M
Q4'26: $1.3B
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
25
26
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q4'26 *$3.6B+48.5%$1.3B+165.2%5.60$1.3B
Q3'26$3.1B+44.1%$748.0M+120.0%3.27$1.1B
Q2'26$2.8B+21.5%$593.0M+76.5%2.60$723.0M
Q1'26$2.6B+21.3%$549.0M+80.0%2.43$532.0M
Q4'25 *$2.4B+29.5%$488.0M−4.9%2.24$508.0M
Q3'25$2.2B+30.5%$340.0M+1260.0%1.57$259.0M
Q2'25$2.3B+49.5%$336.0M—1.55$221.0M
Q1'25$2.2B+49.1%$305.0M—1.41$95.0M
Q4'24 *$1.9B+17.8%$513.0M—2.43$434.0M
Q3'24$1.7B−11.0%$25.0M—0.12$188.0M
Q2'24$1.6B−17.6%−$19.0M—-0.09$169.0M
Q1'24$1.5B−28.6%−$184.0M−734.5%-0.88$127.0M
Q4'23 *$1.6B−39.0%−$92.0M−133.3%-0.45$218.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+18.2%+2.7%+0.9%+0.7%
Operating cash flow+57.4%+17.7%+8.1%+7.4%
Free cash flow+70.5%+22.4%+11.0%+14.2%
EPS (diluted)+17.2%+21.0%+32.7%+18.5%
Equity+111.2%+28.0%+3.1%−0.8%
LT debt−14.4%−7.1%−1.9%+0.9%
Diluted shares+3.4%−1.3%−2.7%−4.6%
Stock price+129.2%+60.1%+43.0%+38.3%

$100, 3 years ago

$1,203vs $176 in SPY

129.2% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$1,053vs $181 in SPY

60.1% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$3,571vs $412 in SPY

43.0% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$12,969vs $813 in SPY

38.3% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$57.31

$177.5B created / $3.1B retained

Last 10 years

$31.30

$189.7B created / $6.1B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

66.2%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

2.0%

MC vs 10× OCF

4.90

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.1y

SBC / FCF

6.9%

Owner earnings

$2.9B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

1.6%

Share count 5y

−4.4%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

16.7%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$-0.10

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

19 of 26 checks pass · 73%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/7

  • Revenue growth

    2.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • EPS growth

    21.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    22.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    17.7% vs 2.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    26.1% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    33.6% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    146.9% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    66.2% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    25.5% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $3.7B vs NI $3.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass

  • Cash cushion

    50% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass

  • Leverage

    1.56 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    fail

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $2.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    7% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -4.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    7% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    26% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    8 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

0/4

  • FCF yield

    1.7% · ≥ 3%

    fail

  • Earnings multiple

    56.6 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    22.3% vs 11.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail

  • Shareholder yield

    0.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202612,195—4,0943,18413.903,6745693,1056341762131,7043,3802,167229
20259,097—1,8901,4696.771,08326581860002008914,995-453217
20246,551—4523351.5891825466458501271,3585,195-1,491212
20237,384—-342-529-2.569423166265824081157865,388-1,199207
202211,661—1,9551,6497.361,6573811,2766101,7991456155,062109224
202110,681—1,4921,3145.361,6264981,1286492,0471121,2094,894631245
202010,509—1,3001,0043.791,7145851,1296738501091,7224,1561,787265
201910,390—1,4872,0127.061,7616021,159713963992,2204,2532,162285
201811,184—1,6341,1824.052,1133661,7477263611121,8534,3201,665292
201710,771—1,0547722.581,9164341,4825614601372,5395,0211,364299
201611,160—4452480.821,6805871,0937271,0901201,1254,0911,593302
201513,739—2,0581,7425.262,6507471,9036641,0871372,4794,1553,018331
201413,724—1,7761,5704.522,5585591,9995571,9121182,6343,9202,832347
201314,351—2,0911,8384.813,0477862,2615181,654761,7082,7743,495382
201214,939—3,1082,8626.493,2626362,6263722,426511,7072,8633,497441
201110,971—8065111.091,26484342174822512,6772,9522,463467
201011,395—1,7401,6093.141,9326391,2930584572,2632,1732,724514
20099,805—-2,665-3,125-6.40823633190132—831,427—1,554488

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗