SPGI
S&P Global · Financials · Financial Exchanges & Data
$435.42
52w 361.03 – 527.02
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$128.9B
P/E
28.2
P/FCF
23.1
FCF yield
4.3%
ROE
14.4%
Shldr yield
4.9%
div 0.9% + bb 4.0%
What today's price assumes
At $128.9B, the market is pricing in 9.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 38.1% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $281 · $630 · $908 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 20.4× across 19 years, SPGI would trade near $390/share (25th–75th percentile: $285–$498); it trades at 22.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+11.1%
Rev 5y
+15.6%
Rev 10y
+11.2%
EPS 5y
+8.7%
EPS 10y
+13.3%
FCF 5y
+9.3%
FCF 10y
+38.1%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $4.2B | +10.4% | $1.4B | +28.0% | 4.69 | $1.0B |
| Q4'25 * | $3.9B | +9.0% | $1.1B | +28.9% | 3.76 | $1.7B |
| Q3'25 | $3.9B | +8.8% | $1.2B | +21.1% | 3.86 | $1.5B |
| Q2'25 | $3.8B | +5.8% | $1.1B | +6.0% | 3.50 | $1.4B |
| Q1'25 | $3.8B | +8.2% | $1.1B | +10.0% | 3.54 | $953.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $3.6B | +14.0% | $879.0M | +52.1% | 2.85 | $1.7B |
| Q3'24 | $3.6B | +15.9% | $971.0M | +30.9% | 3.11 | $1.4B |
| Q2'24 | $3.5B | +14.4% | $1.0B | +97.8% | 3.23 | $1.6B |
| Q1'24 | $3.5B | +10.5% | $991.0M | +24.7% | 3.16 | $948.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $3.2B | +7.3% | $578.0M | +33.5% | 1.83 | $1.3B |
| Q3'23 | $3.1B | +7.8% | $742.0M | +22.0% | 2.33 | $1.0B |
| Q2'23 | $3.1B | +3.6% | $511.0M | −47.4% | 1.60 | $769.0M |
| Q1'23 | $3.2B | +32.3% | $795.0M | −35.6% | 2.47 | $594.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +11.1% | +15.6% | +11.2% | +10.1% |
| Operating cash flow | +29.5% | +9.6% | +31.8% | +14.9% |
| Free cash flow | +29.5% | +9.3% | +38.1% | +15.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | +12.9% | +8.7% | +13.3% | +12.1% |
| Equity | −5.1% | +127.7% | +66.2% | +19.3% |
| LT debt | +4.9% | +24.7% | +13.6% | +16.8% |
| Diluted shares | −1.4% | +4.7% | +1.1% | −0.2% |
| Stock price | +6.4% | +1.5% | +15.1% | +19.0% |
$100, 3 years ago
$120vs $176 in SPY
6.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$108vs $181 in SPY
1.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$407vs $412 in SPY
15.1% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,363vs $813 in SPY
19.0% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$6.86
$82.3B created / $12.0B retained
Last 10 years
$6.75
$131.6B created / $19.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
13.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.23
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.3y
SBC / FCF
4.3%
Owner earnings
$5.2B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.1%
Share count 5y
−0.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
1.8%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$-0.00
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 194.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 5.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 9.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
22 of 26 checks pass · 85%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
15.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
8.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
9.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
9.6% vs 15.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
29.2% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
42.2% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
14.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
13.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
35.6% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.7B vs NI $4.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
14% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.40 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$31.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
4% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
113% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
28.2 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
9.7% vs 38.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15,336 | — | 6,478 | 4,471 | 14.66 | 5,651 | 195 | 5,456 | 1,170 | 5,001 | 236 | 1,745 | 12,370 | 31,127 | 305 |
| 2024 | 14,208 | — | 5,580 | 3,852 | 12.35 | 5,689 | 124 | 5,565 | 1,134 | 3,301 | 247 | 1,666 | 11,394 | 33,159 | 312 |
| 2023 | 12,497 | — | 4,020 | 2,626 | 8.23 | 3,710 | 143 | 3,567 | 1,147 | 3,301 | 171 | 1,290 | 11,412 | 34,200 | 319 |
| 2022 | 11,181 | — | 4,944 | 3,248 | 10.20 | 2,603 | 89 | 2,514 | 1,024 | 12,004 | 214 | 1,286 | 10,730 | 36,388 | 319 |
| 2021 | 8,297 | — | 4,221 | 3,024 | 12.51 | 3,598 | 35 | 3,563 | 743 | 0 | 122 | 6,497 | 4,114 | 2,032 | 242 |
| 2020 | 7,442 | — | 3,617 | 2,339 | 9.66 | 3,567 | 76 | 3,491 | 645 | 1,164 | 90 | 4,108 | 4,110 | 509 | 242 |
| 2019 | 6,699 | — | 3,226 | 2,123 | 8.60 | 2,776 | 115 | 2,661 | 560 | 1,240 | 78 | 2,866 | 3,948 | 479 | 247 |
| 2018 | 6,258 | — | 2,790 | 1,958 | 7.73 | 2,064 | 113 | 1,951 | 503 | 1,660 | 94 | 1,917 | 3,662 | 628 | 253 |
| 2017 | 6,063 | — | 2,583 | 1,496 | 5.78 | 2,016 | 123 | 1,893 | 421 | 1,001 | 99 | 2,777 | 3,170 | 709 | 259 |
| 2016 | 5,661 | — | 3,341 | 2,106 | 7.94 | 1,560 | 115 | 1,445 | 380 | 1,123 | 76 | 2,392 | 3,564 | 650 | 265 |
| 2015 | 5,313 | — | 1,917 | 1,156 | 4.21 | 356 | 139 | 217 | 363 | 974 | 78 | 1,481 | 3,468 | 194 | 275 |
| 2014 | 5,051 | — | 113 | -115 | -0.42 | 1,209 | 92 | 1,117 | 326 | 362 | 100 | 2,497 | 795 | 488 | 272 |
| 2013 | 4,702 | — | 1,358 | 1,376 | 4.91 | 782 | 117 | 665 | 308 | 978 | 96 | 1,542 | 799 | 1,301 | 280 |
| 2012 | 4,270 | — | 1,170 | 437 | 1.53 | 730 | 96 | 634 | 984 | 295 | 90 | 760 | 799 | 767 | 285 |
| 2011 | 3,954 | — | 1,077 | 911 | 3.00 | 924 | 92 | 832 | 296 | 1,500 | 77 | 835 | 798 | 1,508 | 304 |
| 2010 | 3,639 | — | 1,026 | 828 | 2.65 | 704 | 86 | 618 | 292 | 256 | 51 | 1,416 | 1,198 | 2,211 | 312 |
| 2009 | 5,870 | — | 1,259 | 731 | 2.33 | 1,330 | 69 | 1,261 | 281 | 0 | 22 | 1,118 | 1,198 | 1,847 | 313 |
| 2008 | 6,355 | — | 1,375 | 799 | 2.51 | 1,178 | 106 | 1,072 | 280 | 447 | -2 | 472 | 1,198 | 1,282 | 319 |
| 2007 | 6,772 | — | 1,677 | 1,014 | 2.94 | 1,717 | 230 | 1,487 | 278 | 2,213 | 125 | 396 | — | 1,678 | 345 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.