SNPS
Synopsys · Information Technology · Application Software
$394.51
52w 366.00 – 615.79
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$75.5B
P/E
56.7
P/FCF
56.0
FCF yield
1.8%
ROE
4.7%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $75.5B, the market is pricing in 21.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 12.7% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $107 · $203 · $254 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 19.1× across 18 years, SNPS would trade near $151/share (25th–75th percentile: $93–$278); it trades at 49.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+15.2%
Rev 5y
+13.9%
Rev 10y
+12.1%
EPS 5y
+13.5%
EPS 10y
+18.8%
FCF 5y
+10.0%
FCF 10y
+12.7%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $2.3B | +41.9% | $17.1M | −95.0% | 0.09 | $628.9M |
| Q1'26 | $2.4B | +65.5% | $65.0M | −78.0% | 0.34 | $856.8M |
| Q4'25 * | $2.3B | +37.8% | $448.7M | −59.7% | 2.44 | $639.7M |
| Q3'25 | $1.7B | +14.0% | $242.5M | −40.6% | 1.50 | $671.0M |
| Q2'25 | $1.6B | +10.3% | $345.3M | +18.2% | 2.21 | $275.4M |
| Q1'25 | $1.5B | −3.7% | $295.7M | −34.2% | 1.89 | −$67.5M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.6B | +22.1% | $1.1B | +219.1% | 7.13 | $562.8M |
| Q3'24 | $1.5B | +12.7% | $408.1M | +21.4% | 2.61 | $455.4M |
| Q2'24 | $1.5B | +15.2% | $292.1M | +7.0% | 1.88 | $476.6M |
| Q1'24 | $1.5B | +11.0% | $449.1M | +65.4% | 2.89 | −$87.8M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.3B | +63.7% | $349.2M | +127.5% | 2.24 | $326.1M |
| Q3'23 | $1.4B | +8.5% | $336.3M | +51.0% | 2.17 | $559.5M |
| Q2'23 | $1.3B | −1.3% | $272.9M | −7.4% | 1.76 | $702.9M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +15.2% | +13.9% | +12.1% | +11.5% |
| Operating cash flow | −4.4% | +8.9% | +11.9% | +10.5% |
| Free cash flow | −5.6% | +10.0% | +12.7% | +10.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | +8.5% | +13.5% | +18.8% | +11.6% |
| Equity | +72.5% | +42.0% | +24.6% | +18.9% |
| LT debt | +764.7% | +166.1% | +67.9% | — |
| Diluted shares | +1.9% | +1.2% | +0.5% | +0.6% |
| Stock price | −4.9% | +3.5% | +20.9% | +19.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$86vs $176 in SPY
-4.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$119vs $181 in SPY
3.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$665vs $412 in SPY
20.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,524vs $813 in SPY
19.9% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$5.15
$33.8B created / $6.6B retained
Last 10 years
$7.13
$61.3B created / $8.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
3.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
4.97
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
10.0y
SBC / FCF
66.2%
Owner earnings
$455.9M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.6%
Share count 5y
+0.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
9.9%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.06
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 446.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 1.5% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 6.7% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
14 of 27 checks pass · 52%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
13.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
13.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
10.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
8.9% vs 13.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/7
- pass
Net margin
18.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
13.0% · ≥ 10%
- fail
Gross margin stable or rising
77.0% vs 80.5% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
4.7% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
3.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
19.1% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $1.5B vs NI $1.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
10.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
21% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.48 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$28.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
49% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
0.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
66% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
8 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
56.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
21.8% vs 12.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7,054 | 5,431 | 915 | 1,332 | 8.04 | 1,519 | 169 | 1,349 | — | 0 | 893 | 2,888 | 13,462 | 28,328 | 166 |
| 2024 | 6,127 | 4,882 | 1,356 | 2,263 | 14.51 | 1,407 | 140 | 1,268 | — | 0 | 692 | 3,897 | 16 | 8,991 | 156 |
| 2023 | 5,318 | 4,287 | 1,273 | 1,230 | 7.92 | 1,703 | 190 | 1,514 | — | 1,161 | 563 | 1,434 | 18 | 6,147 | 155 |
| 2022 | 4,616 | 3,718 | 1,149 | 985 | 6.29 | 1,739 | 137 | 1,602 | — | 1,100 | 459 | 1,418 | 21 | 5,516 | 156 |
| 2021 | 4,204 | 3,342 | 735 | 758 | 4.81 | 1,493 | 94 | 1,399 | — | 753 | 345 | 1,433 | 25 | 5,295 | 157 |
| 2020 | 3,685 | 2,891 | 620 | 664 | 4.27 | 991 | 155 | 837 | — | 242 | 249 | 1,236 | 101 | 4,907 | 156 |
| 2019 | 3,361 | 2,608 | 520 | 532 | 3.45 | 801 | 198 | 602 | — | 329 | 155 | 729 | 120 | 4,083 | 154 |
| 2018 | 3,121 | 2,385 | 360 | 433 | 2.82 | 424 | 99 | 325 | — | 400 | 140 | 723 | 126 | 3,479 | 153 |
| 2017 | 2,725 | 2,071 | 348 | 137 | 0.88 | 632 | 70 | 562 | — | 380 | 108 | 1,048 | 134 | 3,276 | 155 |
| 2016 | 2,423 | 1,880 | 317 | 267 | 1.73 | 587 | 67 | 520 | — | 400 | 98 | 977 | 0 | 3,195 | 155 |
| 2015 | 2,242 | 1,723 | 266 | 226 | 1.43 | 495 | 87 | 408 | — | 260 | 86 | 836 | 0 | 3,134 | 158 |
| 2014 | 2,057 | 1,601 | 249 | 259 | 1.64 | 551 | 103 | 448 | — | 120 | 79 | 986 | 45 | 3,056 | 158 |
| 2013 | 1,962 | 1,509 | 246 | 248 | 1.58 | 497 | 65 | 431 | — | 145 | 68 | 1,022 | 75 | 2,788 | 157 |
| 2012 | 1,756 | 1,363 | 190 | 182 | 1.21 | 486 | 54 | 432 | — | 40 | 71 | 700 | 105 | 2,502 | 150 |
| 2011 | 1,536 | 1,195 | 213 | 221 | 1.47 | 440 | 57 | 383 | — | 402 | 56 | 855 | — | 2,101 | 150 |
| 2010 | 1,381 | 1,100 | 184 | 237 | 1.56 | 341 | 39 | 302 | — | 185 | 60 | 775 | — | 2,100 | 152 |
| 2009 | 1,360 | 1,086 | 208 | 168 | 1.15 | 239 | 39 | 200 | — | — | 57 | 702 | — | 1,844 | 146 |
| 2008 | 1,337 | 1,078 | 219 | 190 | 1.29 | 331 | 39 | 292 | — | 220 | 65 | 578 | — | 1,528 | 148 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.