SNDK
Sandisk · Information Technology · Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
$1,493.12
52w 46.01 – 2,354.39
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$218.6B
P/E
20.7
P/FCF
20.6
FCF yield
4.9%
ROE
72.7%
Shldr yield
1.9%
div 0.0% + bb 1.9%
What today's price assumes
At $218.6B, the market is pricing in 8.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).
Simple DCF per-share range: $1,196 · $1,604 · $2,000 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+49.3%
Rev 5y
+49.3%
Rev 10y
+49.3%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2023–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 * | $9.0B | +371.6% | $6.9B | — | 44.83 | $7.1B |
| Q3'26 | $6.0B | +251.0% | $3.6B | — | 23.03 | $3.0B |
| Q2'26 | $3.0B | +61.2% | $803.0M | +672.1% | 5.15 | $1.0B |
| Q1'26 | $2.3B | +22.6% | $112.0M | −46.9% | 0.75 | $488.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $1.9B | — | −$23.0M | −119.2% | -0.17 | $94.0M |
| Q3'25 | $1.7B | −0.6% | −$1.9B | −7259.3% | -13.33 | $26.0M |
| Q2'25 | $1.9B | +12.7% | $104.0M | — | 0.72 | $95.0M |
| Q1'25 | $1.9B | — | $211.0M | — | 1.46 | −$131.0M |
| Q4'24 * | — | — | $120.0M | — | — | −$130.0M |
| Q3'24 | $1.7B | — | $27.0M | — | 0.19 | −$12.0M |
| Q2'24 | $1.7B | — | −$301.0M | — | — | — |
| Q1'24 | — | — | −$518.0M | — | — | — |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +49.3% | — | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | — |
| Equity | +11.2% | — | — | — |
| LT debt | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +2.2% | — | — | — |
| Stock price | — | — | — | — |
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
74.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.03
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.0y
SBC / FCF
2.0%
Owner earnings
$11.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.8%
Share count 5y
+2.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
3.3%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$-0.01
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
17 of 19 checks pass · 89%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
1/1
- pass
Revenue growth
49.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
Revenue rises consistently
— · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- na
FCF consistently positive
— · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- na
Profitable every year
— · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- na
Cash flow keeps up with sales
— · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
56.5% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
61.2% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
71.5% vs 7.1% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
72.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
74.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
56.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $11.7B vs NI $11.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.00 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$15.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
1% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/3
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
2.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
39% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- na
Repurchases are a habit
— · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/3
- pass
FCF yield
4.9% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
20.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- na
Price asks less than history delivered
— · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20,248 | 14,472 | 12,389 | 11,433 | 73.76 | 11,671 | 177 | 11,494 | — | 4,524 | 232 | 4,762 | 0 | 15,736 | 155 |
| 2025 | 7,355 | 2,212 | -1,377 | -1,641 | -11.32 | 84 | 204 | -120 | — | 0 | 182 | 1,481 | 1,829 | 9,216 | 145 |
| 2024 | 6,663 | 1,072 | -468 | -672 | -4.63 | -309 | 166 | -475 | — | 0 | 149 | 328 | 0 | 11,082 | 145 |
| 2023 | 6,086 | 430 | -2,035 | -2,143 | -14.78 | -713 | 219 | -932 | — | — | 165 | 292 | — | 11,439 | 145 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.