SHW
Sherwin-Williams · Materials · Specialty Chemicals
$346.73
52w 289.86 – 377.77
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$84.2B
P/E
33.4
P/FCF
32.3
FCF yield
3.1%
ROE
55.9%
Shldr yield
0.9%
div 0.9% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $84.2B, the market is pricing in 14.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 8.1% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $167 · $226 · $281 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 18.9× across 19 years, SHW would trade near $269/share (25th–75th percentile: $191–$311); it trades at 24.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+2.1%
Rev 5y
+5.1%
Rev 10y
+7.6%
EPS 5y
+6.9%
EPS 10y
+10.5%
FCF 5y
−3.1%
FCF 10y
+8.1%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $6.8B | +7.5% | $843.6M | +11.8% | 3.43 | $1.3B |
| Q1'26 | $5.7B | +6.8% | $534.7M | +6.1% | 2.15 | $139.1M |
| Q4'25 * | $5.6B | +5.6% | $476.8M | −0.7% | 1.91 | $1.1B |
| Q3'25 | $6.4B | +3.2% | $833.1M | +3.3% | 3.35 | $1.3B |
| Q2'25 | $6.3B | +0.7% | $754.7M | −15.2% | 3.00 | $1.1B |
| Q1'25 | $5.3B | −1.1% | $503.9M | −0.3% | 2.00 | −$61.1M |
| Q4'24 * | $5.3B | +0.9% | $480.1M | +34.8% | 1.90 | $934.5M |
| Q3'24 | $6.2B | +0.7% | $806.2M | +5.9% | 3.18 | $1.1B |
| Q2'24 | $6.3B | +0.5% | $889.9M | +12.1% | 3.50 | $1.2B |
| Q1'24 | $5.4B | −1.4% | $505.2M | +5.8% | 1.97 | −$58.9M |
| Q4'23 * | $5.3B | +0.4% | $356.2M | −7.8% | 1.39 | $918.6M |
| Q3'23 | $6.1B | +1.1% | $761.5M | +11.2% | 2.95 | $1.3B |
| Q2'23 | $6.2B | +6.3% | $793.7M | +37.3% | 3.07 | $1.2B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +2.1% | +5.1% | +7.6% | +7.7% |
| Operating cash flow | +21.6% | +0.3% | +9.1% | +11.2% |
| Free cash flow | +27.7% | −3.1% | +8.1% | +10.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | +9.9% | +6.9% | +10.5% | +14.1% |
| Equity | +14.0% | +5.0% | +18.1% | +7.2% |
| LT debt | −0.9% | +2.4% | +17.2% | +19.4% |
| Diluted shares | −1.5% | −1.9% | −1.1% | −1.6% |
| Stock price | +9.3% | +3.6% | +14.9% | +20.3% |
$100, 3 years ago
$131vs $176 in SPY
9.3% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$119vs $181 in SPY
3.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$401vs $412 in SPY
14.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,590vs $813 in SPY
20.3% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$3.40
$27.8B created / $8.2B retained
Last 10 years
$4.82
$66.8B created / $13.9B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
24.8%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.49
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.5y
SBC / FCF
4.7%
Owner earnings
$2.5B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.9%
Share count 5y
−1.8%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
17.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.44
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 14.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 2.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 0.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
16 of 25 checks pass · 64%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
5.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
6.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-3.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
0.3% vs 5.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
10.9% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
48.8% vs 42.1% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
55.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
24.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
11.3% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.5B vs NI $2.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
2% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
2.03 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$4.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
30% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.1% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
33.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
14.2% vs 8.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23,574 | 11,516 | — | 2,569 | 10.26 | 3,452 | 798 | 2,654 | 790 | — | 124 | 207 | 9,321 | 4,598 | 250 |
| 2024 | 23,099 | 11,195 | — | 2,681 | 10.55 | 3,153 | 1,070 | 2,083 | 723 | — | 138 | 210 | 8,177 | 4,051 | 254 |
| 2023 | 23,052 | 10,758 | 4,162 | 2,389 | 9.25 | 3,522 | 888 | 2,634 | 624 | — | 116 | 277 | 8,378 | 3,716 | 258 |
| 2022 | 22,149 | 9,325 | 3,397 | 2,020 | 7.72 | 1,920 | 645 | 1,275 | 619 | — | 100 | 199 | 9,591 | 3,102 | 262 |
| 2021 | 19,945 | 8,543 | 3,084 | 1,864 | 6.98 | 2,245 | 372 | 1,873 | 587 | — | 98 | 166 | 8,591 | 2,437 | 267 |
| 2020 | 18,362 | 8,683 | 3,374 | 2,030 | 7.36 | 3,409 | 304 | 3,105 | 488 | — | 96 | 227 | 8,267 | 3,611 | 276 |
| 2019 | 17,901 | 8,036 | 2,809 | 1,541 | 5.50 | 2,321 | 329 | 1,992 | 421 | — | 102 | 162 | 8,051 | 4,123 | 280 |
| 2018 | 17,535 | 7,419 | 2,612 | 1,109 | 3.95 | 1,944 | 251 | 1,693 | 323 | — | 83 | 156 | 8,708 | 3,731 | 280 |
| 2017 | 14,984 | 6,719 | 2,235 | 1,728 | 6.17 | 1,884 | 223 | 1,661 | 319 | — | 90 | 204 | 9,886 | 3,648 | 280 |
| 2016 | 11,856 | 5,921 | 2,164 | 1,133 | 4.06 | 1,309 | 239 | 1,070 | 312 | — | 72 | 890 | 1,211 | 1,878 | 279 |
| 2015 | 11,339 | 5,560 | 1,963 | 1,054 | 3.78 | 1,447 | 234 | 1,213 | 250 | — | 72 | 206 | 1,907 | 868 | 279 |
| 2014 | 11,130 | 5,164 | 1,695 | 866 | 2.97 | 1,082 | 201 | 881 | 215 | — | 65 | 41 | 1,116 | 996 | 291 |
| 2013 | 10,186 | 4,617 | 1,442 | 753 | 2.46 | 1,084 | 167 | 917 | 205 | — | 58 | 745 | 1,122 | 1,775 | 304 |
| 2012 | 9,534 | 4,206 | 1,307 | 631 | 2.04 | 888 | 157 | 731 | 161 | — | 54 | 863 | 1,632 | 1,792 | 307 |
| 2011 | 8,766 | 3,745 | 985 | 442 | 1.40 | 736 | 154 | 582 | 154 | — | 48 | 33 | 639 | 1,517 | 312 |
| 2010 | 7,776 | 3,481 | 948 | 462 | 1.43 | 707 | 125 | 581 | 156 | — | 42 | 59 | 648 | 1,609 | 321 |
| 2009 | 7,094 | 3,263 | — | 436 | 1.28 | 859 | 91 | 768 | 163 | — | 23 | 69 | 783 | 1,491 | 338 |
| 2008 | 7,980 | 3,499 | — | 477 | 1.36 | 876 | 117 | 759 | — | — | 41 | 26 | 304 | 1,606 | 349 |
| 2007 | 8,005 | 3,599 | — | 616 | 1,764.53 | 875 | 166 | 709 | — | — | 35 | 27 | 293 | 1,786 | 349 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.