SBUX
Starbucks · Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
$107.49
52w 77.99 – 110.51
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$122.5B
P/E
64.5
P/FCF
49.0
FCF yield
2.0%
ROE
-22.9%
Shldr yield
2.3%
div 2.3% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $122.5B, the market is pricing in 19.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -0.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $24 · $24 · $30 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 16.5× across 19 years, SBUX would trade near $69/share (25th–75th percentile: $52–$79); it trades at 25.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+4.9%
Rev 5y
+9.6%
Rev 10y
+6.9%
EPS 5y
+15.6%
EPS 10y
−1.1%
FCF 5y
+84.5%
FCF 10y
−0.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $9.3B | −1.4% | $1.0B | +87.2% | 0.91 | $1.6B |
| Q2'26 | $9.5B | +8.8% | $510.9M | +33.0% | 0.45 | $364.5M |
| Q1'26 | $9.9B | +5.5% | $293.3M | −62.4% | 0.26 | $1.6B |
| Q4'25 * | $9.6B | +5.5% | $133.1M | −85.4% | 0.11 | $1.4B |
| Q3'25 | $9.5B | +3.8% | $558.3M | −47.1% | 0.49 | $1.0B |
| Q2'25 | $8.8B | +2.3% | $384.2M | −50.3% | 0.34 | $292.0M |
| Q1'25 | $9.4B | −0.3% | $780.8M | −23.8% | 0.69 | $2.1B |
| Q4'24 * | $9.1B | −3.2% | $909.3M | −25.4% | 0.80 | $1.5B |
| Q3'24 | $9.1B | −0.6% | $1.1B | −7.6% | 0.93 | $1.7B |
| Q2'24 | $8.6B | −1.8% | $772.4M | −15.0% | 0.68 | $506.0M |
| Q1'24 | $9.4B | +8.2% | $1.0B | +19.8% | 0.90 | $2.4B |
| Q4'23 * | $9.4B | +11.4% | $1.2B | +38.8% | 1.06 | $1.9B |
| Q3'23 | $9.2B | +12.5% | $1.1B | +25.1% | 0.99 | $6.4B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +4.9% | +9.6% | +6.9% | +8.7% |
| Operating cash flow | +2.6% | +24.3% | +2.4% | +7.1% |
| Free cash flow | −1.5% | +84.5% | −0.0% | +4.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | −16.8% | +15.6% | −1.1% | +6.6% |
| Equity | −41.4% | −23.6% | −7.3% | — |
| LT debt | +3.6% | −0.1% | +20.0% | +24.4% |
| Diluted shares | −0.5% | −0.7% | −2.8% | −1.8% |
| Stock price | +5.8% | +0.5% | +9.0% | +14.2% |
$100, 3 years ago
$118vs $176 in SPY
5.8% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$102vs $181 in SPY
0.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$236vs $412 in SPY
9.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$736vs $813 in SPY
14.2% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$0.02
$118.7M created / $5.1B retained
Last 10 years
$1.25
$14.7B created / $11.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
73.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.52
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
6.0y
SBC / FCF
13.0%
Owner earnings
$2.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.8%
Share count 5y
−1.6%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
22.8%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.16
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 2.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 416.7% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 11.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
15 of 26 checks pass · 58%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
9.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
15.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
84.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
24.3% vs 9.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/6
- fail
Net margin
5.0% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
7.9% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-22.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
73.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
6.6% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $4.7B vs NI $1.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
6.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
22% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
-1.80 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
−$8.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
18% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
13% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
113% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
8 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.0% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
64.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
19.9% vs -0.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37,184 | — | 2,937 | 1,856 | 1.63 | 4,748 | 2,306 | 2,442 | 2,771 | 0 | 318 | 3,220 | 14,576 | -8,097 | 1,140 |
| 2024 | 36,176 | — | 5,409 | 3,761 | 3.31 | 6,096 | 2,778 | 3,318 | 2,585 | 1,267 | 308 | 3,286 | 14,320 | -7,449 | 1,137 |
| 2023 | 35,976 | — | 5,871 | 4,125 | 3.58 | 6,009 | 2,334 | 3,675 | 2,432 | 984 | 303 | 3,552 | 13,548 | -7,995 | 1,151 |
| 2022 | 32,250 | — | 4,618 | 3,282 | 2.83 | 4,397 | 1,841 | 2,556 | 2,263 | 4,013 | 272 | 2,818 | 13,120 | -8,707 | 1,159 |
| 2021 | 29,061 | — | 4,872 | 4,199 | 3.54 | 5,989 | 1,470 | 4,519 | 2,119 | 0 | 319 | 6,456 | 13,617 | -5,321 | 1,186 |
| 2020 | 23,518 | — | 1,562 | 928 | 0.79 | 1,598 | 1,484 | 114 | 1,924 | 1,699 | 249 | 4,351 | 14,660 | -7,805 | 1,182 |
| 2019 | 26,509 | — | 4,078 | 3,599 | 2.92 | 5,047 | 1,807 | 3,240 | 1,761 | 10,222 | 308 | 2,687 | 11,167 | -6,232 | 1,233 |
| 2018 | 24,720 | — | 3,883 | 4,518 | 3.24 | 11,938 | 1,976 | 9,961 | 1,743 | 7,134 | 250 | 8,756 | 9,090 | 1,170 | 1,395 |
| 2017 | 22,387 | — | 4,135 | 2,885 | 1.97 | 4,252 | 1,519 | 2,732 | 1,450 | 2,043 | 176 | 2,462 | 3,933 | 5,450 | 1,462 |
| 2016 | 21,316 | — | 4,172 | 2,818 | 1.90 | 4,698 | 1,440 | 3,258 | 1,178 | 1,996 | 218 | 2,129 | 3,185 | 5,884 | 1,487 |
| 2015 | 19,163 | — | 3,601 | 2,757 | 1.82 | 3,749 | 1,304 | 2,445 | 929 | 1,436 | 210 | 1,530 | 2,348 | 5,818 | 1,513 |
| 2014 | 16,448 | — | 3,081 | 2,068 | 1.35 | 608 | 1,161 | -553 | 783 | 759 | 183 | 1,708 | 2,048 | 5,272 | 1,526 |
| 2013 | 14,892 | — | -325 | 8 | 0.01 | 2,908 | 1,151 | 1,757 | 629 | 588 | 142 | 2,576 | 1,299 | 4,480 | 1,525 |
| 2012 | 13,300 | — | 1,997 | 1,384 | 0.91 | 1,750 | 856 | 894 | 513 | 549 | 154 | 1,189 | 550 | 5,109 | 1,525 |
| 2011 | 11,700 | — | 1,729 | 1,246 | 0.82 | 1,612 | 532 | 1,081 | 390 | 556 | 145 | 1,148 | 550 | 4,385 | 1,518 |
| 2010 | 10,707 | — | 1,419 | 946 | 0.63 | 1,705 | 446 | 1,259 | 171 | 286 | 114 | 1,164 | 549 | 3,675 | 1,507 |
| 2009 | 9,775 | — | 562 | 391 | 0.26 | 1,389 | 446 | 943 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 600 | 549 | 3,046 | 1,471 |
| 2008 | 10,383 | — | 504 | 316 | 0.22 | 1,259 | 985 | 274 | 0 | 311 | 75 | 270 | 550 | 2,491 | 1,463 |
| 2007 | 9,412 | — | 1,054 | 673 | 0.44 | 1,331 | 1,080 | 251 | — | 997 | 104 | 281 | — | 2,284 | 1,519 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.