MMarketMath

RTX

StalwartQuality: Medium (59/100)

RTX Corporation · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

$209.22

52w 150.61 – 226.88

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$282.0B

P/E

42.0

P/FCF

35.6

FCF yield

2.8%

ROE

10.3%

Shldr yield

1.3%

div 1.3% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $282.0B, the market is pricing in 15.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 4.5% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $90 · $93 · $116 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 7.1× across 19 years, RTX would trade near $56/share (25th–75th percentile: $44–$140); it trades at 26.7× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+9.7%

Rev 5y

+9.4%

Rev 10y

+4.7%

EPS 5y

EPS 10y

−5.4%

FCF 5y

+25.6%

FCF 10y

+4.5%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $55.7B
2008: $59.8B
2009: $52.9B
2010: $52.3B
2011: $55.8B
2012: $57.7B
2013: $56.6B
2014: $57.9B
2015: $56.1B
2016: $57.2B
2017: $59.8B
2018: $34.7B
2019: $45.3B
2020: $56.6B
2021: $64.4B
2022: $67.1B
2023: $68.9B
2024: $80.7B
2025: $88.6B
$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $4.2B
2008: $4.7B
2009: $3.8B
2010: $4.4B
2011: $5.0B
2012: $5.1B
2013: $5.7B
2014: $6.2B
2015: $7.6B
2016: $5.1B
2017: $4.6B
2018: $5.3B
2019: $5.5B
2020: −$3.5B
2021: $3.9B
2022: $5.2B
2023: $3.2B
2024: $4.8B
2025: $6.7B
$0$5.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $5.3B
2008: $4.9B
2009: $4.5B
2010: $4.9B
2011: $5.5B
2012: $5.2B
2013: $5.9B
2014: $5.7B
2015: $5.1B
2016: $4.7B
2017: $3.6B
2018: $1.2B
2019: $4.0B
2020: $2.5B
2021: $5.0B
2022: $4.9B
2023: $5.5B
2024: $4.5B
2025: $7.9B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 989.0M
2008: 956.4M
2009: 928.8M
2010: 922.7M
2011: 906.8M
2012: 906.6M
2013: 915.1M
2014: 911.6M
2015: 883.2M
2016: 826.1M
2017: 799.1M
2018: 810.1M
2019: 863.9M
2020: 1.4B
2021: 1.5B
2022: 1.5B
2023: 1.4B
2024: 1.3B
2025: 1.4B
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

0%10%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $3.1B
2008: $4.4B
2009: $2.5B
2010: $3.7B
2011: $3.8B
2012: $1.8B
2013: $3.1B
2014: $3.5B
2015: $12.2B
2016: $4.3B
2017: $3.5B
2018: $2.5B
2019: $2.6B
2020: $2.8B
2021: $5.3B
2022: $5.9B
2023: $16.1B
2024: $3.7B
2025: $3.6B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$20.0B$40.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $18.3B
Q3'23: $13.5B
Q4'23: $19.9B
Q1'24: $19.3B
Q2'24: $19.7B
Q3'24: $20.1B
Q4'24: $21.6B
Q1'25: $20.3B
Q2'25: $21.6B
Q3'25: $22.5B
Q4'25: $24.2B
Q1'26: $22.1B
Q2'26: $24.7B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $1.3B
Q3'23: −$984.0M
Q4'23: $1.4B
Q1'24: $1.7B
Q2'24: $111.0M
Q3'24: $1.5B
Q4'24: $1.5B
Q1'25: $1.5B
Q2'25: $1.7B
Q3'25: $1.9B
Q4'25: $1.6B
Q1'26: $2.1B
Q2'26: $2.1B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$24.7B+14.5%$2.1B+29.1%1.57$3.5B
Q1'26$22.1B+8.7%$2.1B+34.1%1.51$1.9B
Q4'25 *$24.2B+12.1%$1.6B+9.4%1.19$4.2B
Q3'25$22.5B+11.9%$1.9B+30.3%1.41$4.6B
Q2'25$21.6B+9.4%$1.7B+1392.8%1.22$458.0M
Q1'25$20.3B+5.2%$1.5B−10.2%1.14$1.3B
Q4'24 *$21.6B+8.5%$1.5B+3.9%1.10$1.6B
Q3'24$20.1B+49.2%$1.5B1.09$2.5B
Q2'24$19.7B+7.7%$111.0M−91.6%0.08$2.7B
Q1'24$19.3B+12.1%$1.7B+19.8%1.28$342.0M
Q4'23 *$19.9B+10.1%$1.4B+0.3%1.04$4.7B
Q3'23$13.5B−20.6%−$984.0M−170.9%-0.68$3.3B
Q2'23$18.3B+12.3%$1.3B+1.8%0.90$719.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+9.7%+9.4%+4.7%+3.6%
Operating cash flow+13.8%+19.5%+4.6%+4.2%
Free cash flow+17.6%+25.6%+4.5%+3.3%
EPS (diluted)+12.3%−4.2%−5.4%+0.3%
Equity−3.5%−2.0%+9.1%+7.7%
LT debt+3.1%+1.7%+5.8%+8.4%
Diluted shares−3.0%−0.0%+4.4%+2.6%
Stock price+37.0%+22.3%+14.6%+13.1%

$100, 3 years ago

$257vs $176 in SPY

37.0% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$274vs $181 in SPY

22.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$391vs $412 in SPY

14.6% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$631vs $813 in SPY

13.1% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$24.89

$190.3B created / $7.6B retained

Last 10 years

$17.80

$232.3B created / $13.1B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

10.6%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.4%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.68

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

4.3y

SBC / FCF

6.5%

Owner earnings

$7.4B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

2.6%

Share count 5y

+1.8%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

19.0%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.06

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

13 of 24 checks pass · 54%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/6

  • Revenue growth

    9.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • FCF growth

    25.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    19.5% vs 9.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

3/6

  • Net margin

    7.6% · ≥ 8%

    fail
  • Operating margin

    10.5% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    10.3% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    10.6% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    9.0% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $10.6B vs NI $6.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

1/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    4.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail
  • Cash cushion

    22% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    0.53 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $65.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    1.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    7% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    46% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

0/4

  • FCF yield

    2.8% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    42.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    15.6% vs 4.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail
  • Shareholder yield

    1.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202588,6039,3006,7324.9610,5672,6277,9403,574505197,43534,28865,2451,356
202480,7386,5384,7743.557,1592,6254,5343,2174444375,57841,07860,1561,344
202368,9203,5613,1952.237,8832,4155,4683,23912,8704256,58743,63859,7981,435
202267,0745,5045,1973.507,1682,2884,8803,1282,8034206,22031,28972,6321,486
202164,3885,1363,8642.567,1422,1345,0082,9572,3274427,83231,35173,0681,509
202056,587-1,889-3,519-2.594,3341,7952,5392,732473308,80231,57672,1631,358
201945,3494,9145,5376.415,8211,8683,9532,4421512684,93740,95941,774864
201834,7012,8775,2696.502,6701,4671,2032,1703251693,69344,06838,446810
201759,8378,1384,5525.705,6312,0143,6172,0741,4531928,98527,09329,610799
201657,2448,2215,0556.126,4121,6994,7132,0692,2541527,15723,30027,579826
201556,0987,2917,6088.616,7551,6525,1032,18410,0001587,07519,49927,358883
201457,9009,5936,2206.827,3361,5945,7422,0481,5002195,22919,57531,213912
201356,6008,5495,7216.257,5051,5695,9361,9081,2002504,60719,85331,866915
201257,7087,6845,1305.666,6051,3895,2161,752021022,71825,914907
201155,7547,8464,9795.496,4609295,5311,6022,1752219,63021,880907
201052,2756,8984,3734.745,7208384,8821,4822,20014810,17321,385923
200952,9206,3773,8294.125,3538264,5271,3561,1001539,49020,066929
200859,7577,5094,6894.906,1611,2164,9451,2103,1602119,33715,763956
200755,7167,0504,2244.275,3305,3301,0802,00122,064989

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.