RSG
Republic Services · Industrials · Environmental & Facilities Services
$223.08
52w 196.41 – 235.98
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$68.3B
P/E
31.1
P/FCF
27.6
FCF yield
3.6%
ROE
17.9%
Shldr yield
2.4%
div 1.1% + bb 1.3%
What today's price assumes
At $68.3B, the market is pricing in 12.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 12.6% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $120 · $226 · $281 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 10.7× across 19 years, RSG would trade near $150/share (25th–75th percentile: $95–$176); it trades at 15.9× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+7.1%
Rev 5y
+10.3%
Rev 10y
+4.2%
EPS 5y
+17.8%
EPS 10y
+12.4%
FCF 5y
+13.5%
FCF 10y
+12.6%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $4.4B | +4.6% | $566.1M | +2.9% | 1.84 | $1.2B |
| Q1'26 | $4.1B | +2.6% | $525.3M | +6.1% | 1.70 | $1.2B |
| Q4'25 * | $4.1B | +2.2% | $544.7M | +6.3% | 1.76 | $981.0M |
| Q3'25 | $4.2B | +3.3% | $549.7M | −2.8% | 1.76 | $1.2B |
| Q2'25 | $4.2B | +4.6% | $549.9M | +7.5% | 1.75 | $1.1B |
| Q1'25 | $4.0B | +3.8% | $495.0M | +9.1% | 1.58 | $1.0B |
| Q4'24 * | $4.0B | +5.6% | $512.2M | +16.5% | 1.63 | $1.0B |
| Q3'24 | $4.1B | +6.5% | $565.7M | +17.8% | 1.80 | $1.0B |
| Q2'24 | $4.0B | +8.6% | $511.5M | +19.7% | 1.62 | $1.1B |
| Q1'24 | $3.9B | +7.8% | $453.8M | +18.2% | 1.44 | $811.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $3.8B | +8.6% | $439.6M | +26.8% | 1.39 | $898.7M |
| Q3'23 | $3.8B | +6.3% | $480.2M | +15.2% | 1.52 | $953.1M |
| Q2'23 | $3.7B | +9.1% | $427.4M | +14.9% | 1.35 | $1.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +7.1% | +10.3% | +4.2% | +4.9% |
| Operating cash flow | +10.4% | +11.7% | +9.8% | +7.6% |
| Free cash flow | +11.5% | +13.5% | +12.6% | +9.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | +13.5% | +17.8% | +12.4% | +11.6% |
| Equity | +7.3% | +7.1% | +4.4% | +2.9% |
| LT debt | +4.8% | +8.7% | +6.2% | +4.5% |
| Diluted shares | −0.5% | −0.5% | −1.2% | −1.4% |
| Stock price | +17.0% | +13.9% | +17.9% | +16.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$160vs $176 in SPY
17.0% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$191vs $181 in SPY
13.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$519vs $412 in SPY
17.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,000vs $813 in SPY
16.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$7.26
$39.8B created / $5.5B retained
Last 10 years
$6.64
$53.9B created / $8.1B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
16.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.55
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
5.7y
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
$2.4B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
3.6%
Share count 5y
−0.9%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
—
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 45.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 22.5% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 10.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
21 of 25 checks pass · 84%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
10.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
17.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
13.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
11.7% vs 10.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
12.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
19.9% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
17.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
16.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
14.5% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $4.3B vs NI $2.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
5.7y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
1% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.15 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$12.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
17% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/3
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
67% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.6% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
31.1 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
12.1% vs 12.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16,591 | — | 3,302 | 2,139 | 6.85 | 4,296 | 1,887 | 2,409 | 738 | 870 | — | 76 | 13,710 | 11,968 | 312 |
| 2024 | 16,032 | — | 3,196 | 2,043 | 6.49 | 3,936 | 1,855 | 2,081 | 687 | 482 | 42 | 74 | 12,840 | 11,405 | 315 |
| 2023 | 14,965 | — | 2,780 | 1,731 | 5.47 | 3,618 | 1,631 | 1,987 | 638 | 262 | 41 | 140 | 12,819 | 10,542 | 317 |
| 2022 | 13,511 | — | 2,392 | 1,488 | 4.69 | 3,190 | 1,454 | 1,736 | 593 | 203 | 39 | 143 | 11,902 | 9,686 | 317 |
| 2021 | 11,295 | — | 2,076 | 1,290 | 4.04 | 2,787 | 1,316 | 1,470 | 553 | 252 | 57 | 29 | 9,678 | 8,979 | 319 |
| 2020 | 10,154 | — | 1,709 | 967 | 3.02 | 2,472 | 1,195 | 1,277 | 523 | 99 | 37 | 38 | 9,055 | 8,484 | 320 |
| 2019 | 10,299 | — | 1,787 | 1,073 | 3.33 | 2,352 | 1,207 | 1,145 | 491 | 399 | 40 | 47 | 8,789 | 8,118 | 322 |
| 2018 | 10,041 | — | 1,736 | 1,037 | 3.16 | 2,243 | 1,072 | 1,171 | 462 | 737 | 39 | 71 | 8,445 | 7,927 | 328 |
| 2017 | 10,042 | — | 1,669 | 1,278 | 3.77 | 1,911 | 990 | 921 | 441 | 611 | 35 | 83 | 7,481 | 7,959 | 339 |
| 2016 | 9,388 | — | 1,538 | 613 | 1.78 | 1,848 | 928 | 920 | 419 | 404 | 23 | 68 | 7,653 | 7,691 | 344 |
| 2015 | 11,014 | — | 1,559 | 750 | 2.13 | 1,680 | 946 | 734 | 399 | 405 | 19 | 32 | 7,527 | 7,774 | 351 |
| 2014 | 10,626 | — | 1,233 | 548 | 1.53 | 1,530 | 863 | 667 | 379 | 401 | 17 | 75 | 7,061 | 7,745 | 358 |
| 2013 | 10,145 | — | 1,210 | 589 | 1.62 | 1,548 | 881 | 667 | 349 | 214 | 19 | 213 | 7,018 | 7,904 | 363 |
| 2012 | 9,732 | — | 1,321 | 572 | 1.55 | 1,514 | 904 | 610 | 329 | 326 | 21 | 68 | 7,071 | 7,703 | 368 |
| 2011 | 9,759 | — | 1,553 | 589 | 1.56 | 1,767 | 937 | 830 | 309 | 461 | 21 | 66 | 6,922 | 7,681 | 378 |
| 2010 | 8,107 | — | 1,539 | 507 | 1.32 | 1,434 | 795 | 639 | 295 | 43 | 25 | 88 | 7,043 | 7,847 | 385 |
| 2009 | 8,199 | — | 1,590 | 495 | 1.30 | 1,397 | 826 | 570 | 288 | 1 | 15 | 48 | 6,420 | 7,565 | 381 |
| 2008 | 3,685 | — | 283 | 74 | 0.19 | 512 | 387 | 125 | 128 | 138 | 24 | 69 | 7,199 | 7,281 | 381 |
| 2007 | 3,176 | — | 536 | 290 | 0.79 | 661 | 293 | 369 | 94 | 363 | 11 | 22 | — | 1,304 | 369 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.