ROST
Ross Stores · Consumer Discretionary · Apparel Retail
$241.52
52w 143.39 – 257.00
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$77.5B
P/E
35.7
P/FCF
34.7
FCF yield
2.9%
ROE
34.7%
Shldr yield
2.1%
div 0.7% + bb 1.4%
What today's price assumes
At $77.5B, the market is pricing in 15.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 8.7% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $105 · $148 · $184 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 15.9× across 18 years, ROST would trade near $150/share (25th–75th percentile: $121–$166); it trades at 25.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+6.8%
Rev 5y
+12.7%
Rev 10y
+6.7%
EPS 5y
+94.1%
EPS 10y
+10.2%
FCF 5y
+3.7%
FCF 10y
+8.7%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | $6.0B | +20.6% | $650.0M | +35.6% | 2.02 | $836.0M |
| Q4'26 * | $6.6B | +12.2% | $645.9M | +10.1% | 2.00 | $1.1B |
| Q3'26 | $5.6B | +10.4% | $511.9M | +4.7% | 1.58 | $827.1M |
| Q2'26 | $5.5B | +4.6% | $508.0M | −3.6% | 1.56 | $668.4M |
| Q1'26 | $5.0B | +2.6% | $479.2M | −1.8% | 1.47 | $409.7M |
| Q4'25 * | $5.9B | −1.8% | $586.8M | −3.8% | 1.79 | $882.6M |
| Q3'25 | $5.1B | +3.0% | $488.8M | +9.3% | 1.48 | $513.4M |
| Q2'25 | $5.3B | +7.1% | $527.1M | +18.1% | 1.59 | $592.1M |
| Q1'25 | $4.9B | +8.1% | $488.0M | +31.5% | 1.46 | $368.9M |
| Q4'24 * | $6.0B | +15.5% | $609.7M | +36.4% | 1.82 | $948.8M |
| Q3'24 | $4.9B | +7.9% | $447.3M | +30.8% | 1.33 | $449.5M |
| Q2'24 | $4.9B | +7.7% | $446.3M | +16.1% | 1.32 | $703.1M |
| Q1'24 | $4.5B | +3.7% | $371.2M | +9.7% | 1.09 | $413.2M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +6.8% | +12.7% | +6.7% | +7.3% |
| Operating cash flow | +21.5% | +6.1% | +8.6% | +10.5% |
| Free cash flow | +28.7% | +3.7% | +8.7% | +10.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | +14.7% | +94.1% | +10.2% | +12.1% |
| Equity | +13.0% | +13.5% | +9.6% | +10.8% |
| LT debt | −25.4% | −16.1% | +9.9% | +13.6% |
| Diluted shares | −2.1% | −1.8% | −2.2% | −2.4% |
| Stock price | +26.9% | +16.6% | +15.6% | +19.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$204vs $176 in SPY
26.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$216vs $181 in SPY
16.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$427vs $412 in SPY
15.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,458vs $813 in SPY
19.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$3.91
$27.5B created / $7.0B retained
Last 10 years
$4.00
$46.3B created / $11.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
42.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.53
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.5y
SBC / FCF
7.9%
Owner earnings
$2.0B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.7%
Share count 5y
−2.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
18.0%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.13
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 14.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 46.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 6.9% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
20 of 25 checks pass · 80%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
12.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
94.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
3.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
6.1% vs 12.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
9.4% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
11.9% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
34.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
42.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
9.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.0B vs NI $2.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
451% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.16 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$6.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
8% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
71% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.9% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
35.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
15.2% vs 8.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22,751 | — | 2,707 | 2,145 | 6.61 | 3,027 | 819 | 2,208 | 528 | 1,050 | 175 | 4,594 | 1,018 | 6,187 | 324 |
| 2025 | 21,129 | — | 2,586 | 2,091 | 6.32 | 2,357 | 720 | 1,637 | 489 | 1,050 | 156 | 4,731 | 1,515 | 5,509 | 331 |
| 2024 | 20,377 | — | 2,308 | 1,875 | 5.56 | 2,514 | 763 | 1,752 | 455 | 950 | 145 | 4,872 | 2,211 | 4,871 | 337 |
| 2023 | 18,696 | — | 1,990 | 1,512 | 4.38 | 1,689 | 654 | 1,035 | 431 | 950 | 122 | 4,552 | 2,457 | 4,289 | 345 |
| 2022 | 18,916 | — | — | 1,723 | 4.87 | 1,739 | 558 | 1,181 | 405 | 650 | 134 | 4,922 | 2,452 | 4,060 | 354 |
| 2021 | 12,532 | — | — | 85 | 0.24 | 2,246 | 405 | 1,841 | 101 | 132 | 102 | 4,819 | 2,448 | 3,291 | 355 |
| 2020 | 16,039 | — | — | 1,661 | 4.60 | 2,172 | 555 | 1,616 | 370 | 1,275 | 95 | 1,351 | 313 | 3,359 | 361 |
| 2019 | 14,984 | — | — | 1,587 | 4.26 | 2,067 | 414 | 1,653 | 337 | 1,075 | 96 | 1,413 | 312 | 3,306 | 373 |
| 2018 | 14,135 | — | — | 1,363 | 3.55 | 1,681 | 371 | 1,310 | 248 | 875 | 87 | 1,290 | 312 | 3,049 | 384 |
| 2017 | 12,867 | — | — | 1,118 | 2.83 | 1,559 | 298 | 1,261 | 215 | 700 | 75 | 1,112 | 396 | 2,748 | 395 |
| 2016 | 11,940 | — | — | 1,021 | 2.51 | 1,326 | 367 | 959 | 192 | 700 | 71 | 762 | 396 | 2,472 | 406 |
| 2015 | 11,042 | — | — | 925 | 2.21 | 1,373 | 647 | 726 | 168 | 550 | 53 | 697 | 396 | 2,279 | 418 |
| 2014 | 10,230 | — | — | 837 | 1.94 | 1,022 | 551 | 471 | 148 | 550 | 47 | 423 | 150 | 2,007 | 432 |
| 2013 | 9,721 | — | — | 787 | 1.82 | 980 | 424 | 555 | 126 | 450 | 49 | 647 | 150 | 1,767 | 432 |
| 2012 | 8,608 | — | — | 657 | 1.48 | 820 | 416 | 404 | 102 | 450 | 40 | 650 | 150 | 1,493 | 446 |
| 2011 | 7,866 | — | — | 555 | 1.19 | 673 | 199 | 474 | 77 | 375 | 37 | 834 | 150 | 1,333 | 465 |
| 2010 | 7,184 | — | — | 443 | 0.91 | 888 | 158 | 730 | 55 | 300 | 26 | 768 | 150 | 1,157 | 484 |
| 2009 | 6,486 | — | — | 305 | 0.63 | 583 | 224 | 359 | 50 | 300 | 23 | 321 | — | 996 | 484 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.