RCL
Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
$293.00
52w 232.10 – 366.50
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$78.4B
P/E
18.8
P/FCF
64.9
FCF yield
1.5%
ROE
42.5%
Shldr yield
2.5%
div 1.0% + bb 1.4%
What today's price assumes
At $78.4B, the market is pricing in 23.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 14.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $70 · $147 · $183 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.2× across 15 years, RCL would trade near $175/share (25th–75th percentile: $143–$212); it trades at 12.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+26.6%
Rev 5y
+52.0%
Rev 10y
+8.0%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+17.9%
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
+14.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $4.8B | +6.5% | $1.1B | −6.8% | 4.20 | $1.9B |
| Q1'26 | $4.5B | +11.3% | $941.0M | +28.9% | 3.48 | $1.8B |
| Q4'25 * | $4.3B | +13.3% | $753.0M | +36.4% | 2.76 | $1.6B |
| Q3'25 | $5.1B | +5.2% | $1.6B | +41.8% | 5.74 | $1.5B |
| Q2'25 | $4.5B | +10.4% | $1.2B | +41.7% | 4.41 | $1.7B |
| Q1'25 | $4.0B | +7.3% | $730.0M | +102.8% | 2.70 | $1.6B |
| Q4'24 * | $3.8B | +12.9% | $552.0M | +99.3% | 2.27 | $1.5B |
| Q3'24 | $4.9B | +17.5% | $1.1B | +10.1% | 4.21 | $897.0M |
| Q2'24 | $4.1B | +16.7% | $854.0M | +86.1% | 3.11 | $1.6B |
| Q1'24 | $3.7B | +29.2% | $360.0M | — | 1.35 | $1.3B |
| Q4'23 * | $3.3B | +27.9% | $277.0M | — | 1.15 | $1.1B |
| Q3'23 | $4.2B | +39.0% | $1.0B | +2960.5% | 3.65 | $659.0M |
| Q2'23 | $3.5B | +61.3% | $459.0M | — | 1.70 | $1.4B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +26.6% | +52.0% | +8.0% | +6.7% |
| Operating cash flow | +137.8% | +9.7% | +12.8% | +9.5% |
| Free cash flow | +10.2% | +10.2% | +14.0% | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +9.7% | +9.7% | +17.9% | +13.4% |
| Equity | +51.8% | +2.8% | +2.2% | +1.6% |
| LT debt | −5.2% | +0.2% | +9.1% | +5.7% |
| Diluted shares | +2.4% | +5.0% | +2.2% | +1.5% |
| Stock price | +44.9% | +29.5% | +16.6% | +19.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$305vs $176 in SPY
44.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$364vs $181 in SPY
29.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$463vs $412 in SPY
16.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,376vs $813 in SPY
19.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$150.46
$74.5B created / $495.0M retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
22.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
6.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.24
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
14.7y
SBC / FCF
14.2%
Owner earnings
$1.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.3%
Share count 5y
+1.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
199.0%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.66
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 29.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 234.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 68.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
13 of 24 checks pass · 54%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
2/5
- pass
Revenue growth
52.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
6 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
7 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
9.7% vs 52.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
23.8% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
27.4% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
42.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
22.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
6.9% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $6.5B vs NI $4.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
14.7y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
5% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
1.81 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$10.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
20% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
14% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
160% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
5 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.5% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
18.8 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
23.8% vs 14.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17,935 | — | 4,910 | 4,268 | 15.61 | 6,465 | 5,229 | 1,236 | 824 | 1,159 | 175 | 825 | 18,165 | 10,037 | 274 |
| 2024 | 16,484 | — | 4,106 | 2,877 | 10.94 | 5,265 | 3,268 | 1,997 | 107 | 0 | 267 | 388 | 18,473 | 7,563 | 279 |
| 2023 | 13,900 | — | 2,878 | 1,697 | 6.31 | 4,477 | 3,897 | 580 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 497 | 19,732 | 4,724 | 283 |
| 2022 | 8,840 | — | -766 | -2,156 | -8.45 | 481 | 2,710 | -2,229 | 0 | — | 36 | 1,935 | 21,303 | 2,869 | 255 |
| 2021 | 1,532 | — | -3,870 | -5,260 | -20.89 | -1,878 | 2,230 | -4,108 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 2,702 | 18,847 | 5,086 | 252 |
| 2020 | 2,209 | — | -4,602 | -5,797 | -27.05 | -3,732 | 1,965 | -5,697 | 326 | 0 | 40 | 3,684 | 17,958 | 8,761 | 214 |
| 2019 | 10,951 | — | 2,083 | 1,879 | 8.95 | 3,716 | 3,025 | 692 | 603 | 100 | 76 | 244 | 8,414 | 12,164 | 210 |
| 2018 | 9,494 | — | 1,895 | 1,811 | 8.56 | 3,479 | 3,660 | -181 | 527 | 575 | 46 | 288 | 8,355 | 11,105 | 212 |
| 2017 | 8,778 | — | 1,744 | 1,625 | 7.53 | 2,875 | 564 | 2,310 | 437 | 225 | 69 | 120 | 6,351 | 10,702 | 216 |
| 2016 | 8,496 | — | 1,477 | 1,283 | 5.93 | 2,517 | 2,494 | 22 | 346 | 300 | 33 | 133 | 8,102 | 9,121 | 216 |
| 2015 | 8,299 | — | 875 | 666 | 3.02 | 1,946 | 1,613 | 333 | 280 | 200 | 36 | 122 | 7,628 | 8,063 | 221 |
| 2014 | 8,074 | — | 942 | 764 | 3.43 | 1,744 | 1,811 | -68 | 199 | 236 | 26 | 189 | 7,644 | 8,284 | 223 |
| 2013 | 7,960 | — | 798 | 474 | 2.14 | 1,412 | 764 | 648 | 144 | 0 | 21 | 205 | 6,511 | 8,808 | 221 |
| 2012 | 7,688 | — | 403 | 18 | 0.08 | 1,382 | 1,291 | 90 | 118 | 0 | 24 | 195 | 6,970 | 8,309 | 219 |
| 2011 | 7,537 | — | 932 | 607 | 2.77 | 1,456 | 1,174 | 282 | 22 | — | 24 | 262 | 7,857 | 8,408 | 219 |
| 2010 | 6,753 | — | 803 | 516 | 2.37 | 1,663 | 2,187 | -524 | — | — | 28 | 420 | 7,951 | 7,901 | 218 |
| 2009 | 5,890 | — | 489 | 152 | 0.71 | 845 | 2,478 | -1,633 | — | — | 17 | 285 | 7,664 | 7,490 | 215 |
| 2008 | 6,533 | — | 832 | 574 | 2.68 | 1,071 | 2,224 | -1,152 | 128 | — | — | 403 | — | 6,803 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.