QCOM
Qualcomm · Information Technology · Semiconductors
$158.53
52w 121.99 – 259.92
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$166.5B
P/E
30.5
P/FCF
13.2
FCF yield
7.6%
ROE
26.1%
Shldr yield
5.2%
div 0.0% + bb 5.2%
What today's price assumes
At $166.5B, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 11.0% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $186 · $311 · $388 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 12.1× across 19 years, QCOM would trade near $162/share (25th–75th percentile: $150–$177); it trades at 11.9× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+0.1%
Rev 5y
+13.5%
Rev 10y
+5.8%
EPS 5y
+2.1%
EPS 10y
+4.5%
FCF 5y
+23.8%
FCF 10y
+11.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $9.9B | −4.0% | $2.0B | −24.9% | 1.87 | $991.0M |
| Q2'26 | $10.6B | −3.5% | $7.4B | +162.1% | 6.88 | $2.4B |
| Q1'26 | $12.3B | +5.0% | $3.0B | −5.5% | 2.78 | $5.0B |
| Q4'25 * | $11.3B | +10.0% | −$3.1B | −206.7% | -2.77 | $4.0B |
| Q3'25 | $10.4B | +10.3% | $2.7B | +25.2% | 2.43 | $2.9B |
| Q2'25 | $11.0B | +16.9% | $2.8B | +20.9% | 2.52 | $2.6B |
| Q1'25 | $11.7B | +17.5% | $3.2B | +14.9% | 2.83 | $4.6B |
| Q4'24 * | $10.2B | +18.7% | $2.9B | +96.0% | 2.57 | $2.6B |
| Q3'24 | $9.4B | +11.1% | $2.1B | +18.1% | 1.88 | $3.1B |
| Q2'24 | $9.4B | +1.2% | $2.3B | +36.5% | 2.06 | $3.6B |
| Q1'24 | $9.9B | +5.0% | $2.8B | +23.8% | 2.46 | $2.9B |
| Q4'23 * | $8.6B | −24.3% | $1.5B | −48.1% | 1.32 | $4.1B |
| Q3'23 | $8.5B | −22.7% | $1.8B | −51.7% | 1.60 | $2.7B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +0.1% | +13.5% | +5.8% | +9.7% |
| Operating cash flow | +15.5% | +19.2% | +9.8% | +8.6% |
| Free cash flow | +23.3% | +23.8% | +11.0% | +8.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | −23.9% | +2.1% | +4.5% | +6.5% |
| Equity | +5.6% | +28.4% | −3.9% | +0.1% |
| LT debt | +3.0% | −0.6% | +4.0% | — |
| Diluted shares | −0.9% | −0.8% | −3.9% | −2.7% |
| Stock price | +13.6% | +3.8% | +12.6% | +10.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$147vs $176 in SPY
13.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$120vs $181 in SPY
3.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$327vs $412 in SPY
12.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$452vs $813 in SPY
10.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$1.59
$71.4B created / $44.9B retained
Last 10 years
$2.17
$124.9B created / $57.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
38.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
7.9%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.20
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.2y
SBC / FCF
21.7%
Owner earnings
$10.0B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.9%
Share count 5y
−2.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
10.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.05
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 27.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 51.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 14.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
21 of 26 checks pass · 81%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
13.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
2.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
23.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
19.2% vs 13.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
12.5% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
27.9% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
26.1% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
38.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
28.9% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $14.0B vs NI $5.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
37% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.70 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$21.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
5% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
22% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
69% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
7.6% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
30.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
2.0% vs 11.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
5.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 44,284 | — | 12,355 | 5,541 | 5.01 | 14,012 | 1,192 | 12,820 | — | 8,791 | 2,783 | 5,520 | 14,811 | 21,206 | 1,105 |
| 2024 | 38,962 | — | 10,071 | 10,142 | 8.97 | 12,202 | 1,041 | 11,161 | — | 4,121 | 2,648 | 7,849 | 13,270 | 26,274 | 1,130 |
| 2023 | 35,820 | — | 7,788 | 7,232 | 6.42 | 11,299 | 1,450 | 9,849 | — | 2,973 | 2,484 | 8,450 | 14,484 | 21,581 | 1,126 |
| 2022 | 44,200 | — | 15,860 | 12,936 | 11.37 | 9,096 | 2,262 | 6,834 | — | 3,129 | 2,031 | 2,773 | 13,537 | 18,013 | 1,137 |
| 2021 | 33,566 | — | 9,789 | 9,043 | 7.87 | 10,536 | 1,888 | 8,648 | — | 3,366 | 1,663 | 7,116 | 13,701 | 9,950 | 1,149 |
| 2020 | 23,531 | — | 6,255 | 5,198 | 4.52 | 5,814 | 1,407 | 4,407 | — | 2,450 | 1,212 | 6,707 | 15,226 | 6,077 | 1,149 |
| 2019 | 24,273 | — | 7,667 | 4,386 | 3.59 | 7,286 | 887 | 6,399 | — | 1,793 | 1,037 | 11,839 | 13,437 | 4,909 | 1,220 |
| 2018 | 22,611 | — | 621 | -4,964 | -3.39 | 3,908 | 784 | 3,124 | — | 22,580 | 883 | 11,777 | 15,365 | 807 | 1,463 |
| 2017 | 22,258 | — | 2,581 | 2,445 | 1.64 | 5,001 | 690 | 4,311 | — | 1,342 | 914 | 35,029 | 19,398 | 30,725 | 1,490 |
| 2016 | 23,554 | — | 6,495 | 5,705 | 3.81 | 7,632 | 539 | 7,093 | — | 3,923 | 943 | 5,946 | 10,008 | 31,778 | 1,498 |
| 2015 | 25,281 | — | 5,776 | 5,271 | 3.22 | 5,506 | 994 | 4,512 | — | 11,246 | 1,026 | 7,560 | 9,969 | 31,421 | 1,639 |
| 2014 | 26,487 | — | 7,550 | 7,967 | 4.65 | 8,887 | 1,185 | 7,702 | 2,629 | 4,549 | 1,059 | 7,907 | 0 | 39,169 | 1,714 |
| 2013 | 24,866 | — | 7,230 | 6,853 | 3.91 | 8,778 | 1,048 | 7,730 | 2,055 | 4,610 | 1,105 | 6,142 | — | 36,088 | 1,754 |
| 2012 | 19,121 | — | 5,682 | 6,109 | 3.51 | 5,998 | 1,284 | 4,714 | 1,583 | 1,313 | 1,035 | 3,807 | — | 33,523 | 1,741 |
| 2011 | 14,957 | — | 5,026 | 4,260 | 2.52 | 4,900 | 593 | 4,307 | 1,346 | 142 | 824 | 5,462 | — | 26,951 | 1,691 |
| 2010 | 10,982 | — | 3,727 | 3,247 | 1.96 | 4,076 | 426 | 3,650 | 1,177 | 3,016 | 612 | 3,547 | — | 20,858 | 1,658 |
| 2009 | 10,387 | — | 2,542 | 1,592 | 0.95 | 7,172 | 761 | 6,411 | 1,093 | 285 | 584 | 2,717 | — | 20,316 | 1,673 |
| 2008 | 11,142 | — | 3,730 | 3,160 | 1.90 | 3,558 | 1,397 | 2,161 | 982 | 1,670 | 541 | 1,840 | — | 17,944 | 1,660 |
| 2007 | 8,871 | — | 2,883 | 3,303 | 1.95 | 3,811 | 818 | 2,993 | 862 | 1,482 | 488 | 2,411 | — | 15,835 | 1,693 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.