PSX
Phillips 66 · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$241.96
52w 126.74 – 246.95
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$96.5B
P/E
22.0
P/FCF
19.5
FCF yield
5.1%
ROE
15.1%
Shldr yield
3.2%
div 2.0% + bb 1.2%
What today's price assumes
At $96.5B, the market is pricing in 7.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -1.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $128 · $128 · $159 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.6× across 15 years, PSX would trade near $82/share (25th–75th percentile: $62–$129); it trades at 19.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−8.0%
Rev 5y
+15.6%
Rev 10y
+3.0%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+3.4%
FCF 5y
+18.6%
FCF 10y
−1.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2010–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $51.0B | +53.1% | $3.8B | +338.7% | 9.55 | $7.3B |
| Q1'26 | $32.5B | +6.9% | $207.0M | −57.5% | 0.51 | −$2.3B |
| Q4'25 * | $34.1B | +1.3% | $2.9B | +36225.0% | 7.14 | $2.8B |
| Q3'25 | $34.5B | −2.9% | $133.0M | −61.6% | 0.32 | $1.2B |
| Q2'25 | $33.3B | −12.6% | $877.0M | −13.6% | 2.15 | $845.0M |
| Q1'25 | $30.4B | −15.0% | $487.0M | −34.9% | 1.18 | $187.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $33.7B | −12.0% | $8.0M | −99.4% | 0.06 | $1.2B |
| Q3'24 | $35.5B | −10.4% | $346.0M | −83.5% | 0.82 | $1.1B |
| Q2'24 | $38.1B | +8.7% | $1.0B | −40.2% | 2.38 | $2.1B |
| Q1'24 | $35.8B | +4.1% | $748.0M | −61.9% | 1.73 | −$236.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $38.3B | −5.0% | $1.3B | −33.1% | 2.87 | $2.2B |
| Q3'23 | $39.6B | −11.8% | $2.1B | −61.1% | 4.69 | $2.7B |
| Q2'23 | $35.1B | −27.8% | $1.7B | −46.4% | 3.72 | $955.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −8.0% | +15.6% | +3.0% | −0.7% |
| Operating cash flow | −22.9% | +18.6% | −1.4% | +5.9% |
| Free cash flow | −22.9% | +18.6% | −1.4% | +5.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | −22.6% | +8.1% | +3.4% | +16.0% |
| Equity | −0.5% | +8.9% | +2.3% | +0.7% |
| LT debt | +3.9% | +4.6% | +7.8% | — |
| Diluted shares | −4.9% | −1.5% | −2.9% | −2.9% |
| Stock price | +32.5% | +32.3% | +16.1% | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$233vs $176 in SPY
32.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$406vs $181 in SPY
32.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$446vs $412 in SPY
16.1% vs 15.2%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$2.00
$33.5B created / $16.8B retained
Last 10 years
$1.34
$28.1B created / $20.9B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
10.4%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.95
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.8y
SBC / FCF
4.4%
Owner earnings
$4.7B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.9%
Share count 5y
−2.9%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 46.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 18.7% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 8.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
16 of 23 checks pass · 70%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/6
- pass
Revenue growth
15.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
18.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
4 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
18.6% vs 15.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
2/5
- fail
Net margin
3.3% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
15.1% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
10.4% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
3.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.0B vs NI $4.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
6% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.64 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$29.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
63% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.1% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
22.0 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
7.4% vs -1.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Revenue declining
Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 132,376 | — | — | 4,403 | 10.79 | 4,962 | — | 4,962 | 1,922 | 1,207 | 220 | 1,116 | 18,678 | 29,093 | 408 |
| 2024 | 143,153 | — | — | 2,117 | 4.99 | 4,191 | — | 4,191 | 1,882 | 3,451 | 210 | 1,738 | 18,231 | 27,408 | 422 |
| 2023 | 147,399 | — | — | 7,015 | 15.48 | 7,029 | — | 7,029 | 1,882 | 4,014 | 297 | 3,323 | 17,877 | 30,583 | 453 |
| 2022 | 169,990 | — | — | 11,024 | 23.27 | 10,813 | — | 10,813 | 1,793 | 1,513 | 210 | 6,133 | 16,661 | 29,494 | 474 |
| 2021 | 111,476 | — | — | 1,317 | 2.97 | 6,017 | — | 6,017 | 1,585 | 0 | 144 | 3,147 | 12,959 | 19,166 | 440 |
| 2020 | 64,129 | — | — | -3,975 | -9.06 | 2,111 | — | 2,111 | 1,575 | 443 | 127 | 2,514 | 14,906 | 18,984 | 440 |
| 2019 | 107,293 | — | — | 3,076 | 6.77 | 4,808 | — | 4,808 | 1,570 | 1,650 | 169 | 1,614 | 11,216 | 24,910 | 454 |
| 2018 | 111,461 | — | — | 5,595 | 11.80 | 7,573 | — | 7,573 | 1,436 | 4,645 | 100 | 3,019 | 11,093 | 24,653 | 474 |
| 2017 | 102,354 | — | — | 5,106 | 9.85 | 3,648 | — | 3,648 | 1,395 | 1,590 | 142 | 3,119 | 10,069 | 25,085 | 519 |
| 2016 | 84,279 | — | — | 1,555 | 2.92 | 2,963 | — | 2,963 | 1,282 | 1,042 | 156 | 2,711 | 9,588 | 22,390 | 530 |
| 2015 | 98,975 | — | — | 4,227 | 7.73 | 5,713 | — | 5,713 | 1,172 | 1,512 | 144 | 3,074 | 8,843 | 23,100 | 547 |
| 2014 | 161,212 | — | — | 4,762 | 8.33 | 3,529 | — | 3,529 | 1,062 | 2,282 | 134 | 5,207 | 28 | 21,590 | 572 |
| 2013 | 171,596 | — | — | 3,726 | 6.02 | 6,027 | — | 6,027 | 807 | 2,246 | 132 | 5,400 | 6,131 | 21,950 | 619 |
| 2012 | 179,290 | — | — | 4,124 | 6.48 | 4,296 | — | 4,296 | 282 | 356 | 94 | 3,474 | 6,961 | 20,775 | 637 |
| 2011 | 195,931 | — | — | 4,775 | 7.52 | 5,006 | — | 5,006 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 361 | 23,264 | 635 |
| 2010 | 146,561 | — | — | 735 | 1.16 | 2,092 | — | 2,092 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | — | 26,026 | 635 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.