PSA
Public Storage · Real Estate · Self-Storage REITs
$324.97
52w 256.54 – 335.55
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$57.1B
P/E
31.8
P/FCF
17.8
FCF yield
5.6%
ROE
19.3%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $57.1B, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 6.6% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $277 · $334 · $417 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 13.2× across 19 years, PSA would trade near $239/share (25th–75th percentile: $210–$271); it trades at 17.9× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+4.9%
Rev 5y
+10.6%
Rev 10y
+7.3%
EPS 5y
+7.5%
EPS 10y
+4.0%
FCF 5y
+9.3%
FCF 10y
+6.6%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $1.2B | +2.6% | $500.0M | +39.5% | 2.55 | $868.4M |
| Q1'26 | $1.2B | +2.9% | $526.3M | +29.1% | 2.71 | $694.8M |
| Q4'25 * | $1.2B | +3.3% | $507.1M | −17.5% | 2.59 | $733.6M |
| Q3'25 | $1.2B | +3.1% | $511.1M | +18.8% | 2.62 | $875.1M |
| Q2'25 | $1.2B | +2.4% | $358.4M | −30.8% | 1.76 | $872.7M |
| Q1'25 | $1.2B | +2.2% | $407.8M | −19.9% | 2.04 | $705.1M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.2B | +1.5% | $614.6M | +39.9% | 3.22 | $768.6M |
| Q3'24 | $1.2B | +3.8% | $430.3M | −29.8% | 2.16 | $798.8M |
| Q2'24 | $1.2B | +4.8% | $518.1M | −10.4% | 2.66 | $895.3M |
| Q1'24 | $1.2B | +5.8% | $508.9M | −1.7% | 2.60 | $665.6M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.2B | +6.6% | $439.3M | +6.5% | 2.21 | $791.7M |
| Q3'23 | $1.1B | +5.1% | $613.3M | −77.9% | 3.20 | $875.7M |
| Q2'23 | $1.1B | +8.5% | $578.0M | −11.6% | 3.00 | $882.4M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +4.9% | +10.6% | +7.3% | +7.6% |
| Operating cash flow | +0.7% | +9.3% | +6.2% | +7.4% |
| Free cash flow | +0.7% | +9.3% | +6.6% | +7.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | −27.4% | +7.5% | +4.0% | +9.4% |
| Equity | −2.8% | +1.6% | +0.1% | +0.4% |
| LT debt | +14.3% | +32.1% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% |
| Stock price | +9.9% | +4.6% | +8.0% | +10.7% |
$100, 3 years ago
$133vs $176 in SPY
9.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$125vs $181 in SPY
4.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$217vs $412 in SPY
8.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$460vs $813 in SPY
10.7% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$1.88
$16.2B created / $8.6B retained
Last 10 years
$1.75
$18.6B created / $10.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
16.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.78
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.2y
SBC / FCF
1.3%
Owner earnings
$3.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.5%
Share count 5y
+0.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 54.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 13.7% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 7.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 24 checks pass · 75%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
10.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
7.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
9.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
9.3% vs 10.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
37.0% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
19.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
16.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
66.1% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.2B vs NI $1.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
3% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.11 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$9.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
0.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
1 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.6% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
31.8 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
6.1% vs 6.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4,824 | — | — | 1,784 | 9.01 | 3,186 | — | 3,186 | — | 0 | 40 | 318 | 10,254 | 9,248 | 176 |
| 2024 | 4,696 | — | — | 2,072 | 10.64 | 3,128 | — | 3,128 | — | 200 | 45 | 447 | 9,353 | 9,713 | 176 |
| 2023 | 4,518 | — | — | 2,148 | 11.06 | 3,247 | — | 3,247 | — | 0 | 42 | 370 | 9,103 | 10,013 | 176 |
| 2022 | 4,182 | — | — | 4,349 | 23.50 | 3,117 | — | 3,117 | 2,300 | 0 | 57 | 775 | 6,871 | 10,073 | 176 |
| 2021 | 3,416 | — | — | 1,953 | 9.87 | 2,544 | — | 2,544 | 1,402 | — | 60 | 735 | 7,475 | 9,335 | 176 |
| 2020 | 2,915 | — | — | 1,357 | 6.29 | 2,043 | — | 2,043 | 1,399 | — | 33 | 258 | 2,545 | 8,559 | 175 |
| 2019 | 2,855 | — | — | 1,521 | 7.29 | 2,068 | 187 | 1,880 | 1,399 | — | 26 | 410 | 1,902 | 9,063 | 175 |
| 2018 | 2,760 | 2,015 | — | 1,711 | 8.54 | 2,064 | 141 | 1,923 | — | — | 70 | 361 | 1,412 | 9,119 | 174 |
| 2017 | 2,669 | 1,961 | 1,423 | 1,442 | 6.73 | 1,973 | 121 | 1,852 | 1,394 | — | 38 | 433 | 1,431 | 8,940 | 174 |
| 2016 | 2,561 | 1,891 | 1,374 | 1,454 | 6.81 | 1,945 | 81 | 1,864 | 1,268 | — | 37 | 184 | 391 | 9,412 | 174 |
| 2015 | 2,382 | 1,746 | 1,232 | 1,311 | 6.07 | 1,748 | 66 | 1,683 | 1,126 | — | 33 | 104 | — | 9,171 | 174 |
| 2014 | 2,177 | 1,564 | 1,055 | 1,144 | 5.25 | 1,604 | 81 | 1,523 | 968 | — | 30 | 188 | — | 9,481 | 173 |
| 2013 | 1,965 | 1,405 | 951 | 1,052 | 4.89 | 1,430 | 69 | 1,361 | 887 | — | — | 19 | — | 8,792 | 173 |
| 2012 | 1,843 | — | 872 | 939 | 3.90 | 1,286 | 68 | 1,218 | 754 | — | — | 17 | — | 8,094 | 172 |
| 2011 | 1,736 | — | 763 | 824 | 3.29 | 1,203 | 70 | 1,134 | 621 | — | — | 139 | — | 8,288 | 171 |
| 2010 | 1,614 | — | 693 | 672 | 2.35 | 1,093 | 78 | 1,016 | 517 | — | — | 456 | — | 8,677 | 170 |
| 2009 | 1,623 | — | — | 835 | 3.47 | 1,113 | 62 | 1,051 | 372 | 0 | — | 764 | — | 8,928 | 169 |
| 2008 | 1,720 | — | — | 935 | 4.18 | 1,077 | 76 | 1,001 | 471 | 112 | — | 681 | — | 8,709 | 169 |
| 2007 | 1,787 | — | — | 458 | -0.01 | 1,048 | 69 | 979 | -339 | 0 | — | 245 | — | 9,263 | 170 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.