MMarketMath

PSA

StalwartQuality: High (76/100)

Public Storage · Real Estate · Self-Storage REITs

$324.97

52w 256.54 – 335.55

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$57.1B

P/E

31.8

P/FCF

17.8

FCF yield

5.6%

ROE

19.3%

Shldr yield

0.0%

div 0.0% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $57.1B, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 6.6% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $277 · $334 · $417 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 13.2× across 19 years, PSA would trade near $239/share (25th–75th percentile: $210–$271); it trades at 17.9× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+4.9%

Rev 5y

+10.6%

Rev 10y

+7.3%

EPS 5y

+7.5%

EPS 10y

+4.0%

FCF 5y

+9.3%

FCF 10y

+6.6%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $1.8B
2008: $1.7B
2009: $1.6B
2010: $1.6B
2011: $1.7B
2012: $1.8B
2013: $2.0B
2014: $2.2B
2015: $2.4B
2016: $2.6B
2017: $2.7B
2018: $2.8B
2019: $2.9B
2020: $2.9B
2021: $3.4B
2022: $4.2B
2023: $4.5B
2024: $4.7B
2025: $4.8B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $457.5M
2008: $935.2M
2009: $834.6M
2010: $672.0M
2011: $823.8M
2012: $939.3M
2013: $1.1B
2014: $1.1B
2015: $1.3B
2016: $1.5B
2017: $1.4B
2018: $1.7B
2019: $1.5B
2020: $1.4B
2021: $2.0B
2022: $4.3B
2023: $2.1B
2024: $2.1B
2025: $1.8B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $978.5M
2008: $1.0B
2009: $1.1B
2010: $1.0B
2011: $1.1B
2012: $1.2B
2013: $1.4B
2014: $1.5B
2015: $1.7B
2016: $1.9B
2017: $1.9B
2018: $1.9B
2019: $1.9B
2020: $2.0B
2021: $2.5B
2022: $3.1B
2023: $3.2B
2024: $3.1B
2025: $3.2B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 169.8M
2008: 168.7M
2009: 168.8M
2010: 169.8M
2011: 170.8M
2012: 171.7M
2013: 172.7M
2014: 173.1M
2015: 173.5M
2016: 173.9M
2017: 174.2M
2018: 174.3M
2019: 174.5M
2020: 174.6M
2021: 175.6M
2022: 176.3M
2023: 176.1M
2024: 176.0M
2025: 175.9M
050.0M100.0M150.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

25%50%75%100%07101316192225
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $338.7M
2008: $582.7M
2009: $371.7M
2010: $516.9M
2011: $621.4M
2012: $753.9M
2013: $887.1M
2014: $967.9M
2015: $1.1B
2016: $1.3B
2017: $1.4B
2019: $1.4B
2020: $1.4B
2021: $1.4B
2022: $2.3B
2023: $0
2024: $200.0M
2025: $0
$0$1.0B$2.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$5.0B$10.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $1.1B
Q3'23: $1.1B
Q4'23: $1.2B
Q1'24: $1.2B
Q2'24: $1.2B
Q3'24: $1.2B
Q4'24: $1.2B
Q1'25: $1.2B
Q2'25: $1.2B
Q3'25: $1.2B
Q4'25: $1.2B
Q1'26: $1.2B
Q2'26: $1.2B
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $578.0M
Q3'23: $613.3M
Q4'23: $439.3M
Q1'24: $508.9M
Q2'24: $518.1M
Q3'24: $430.3M
Q4'24: $614.6M
Q1'25: $407.8M
Q2'25: $358.4M
Q3'25: $511.1M
Q4'25: $507.1M
Q1'26: $526.3M
Q2'26: $500.0M
$0$200.0M$400.0M$600.0M
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$1.2B+2.6%$500.0M+39.5%2.55$868.4M
Q1'26$1.2B+2.9%$526.3M+29.1%2.71$694.8M
Q4'25 *$1.2B+3.3%$507.1M−17.5%2.59$733.6M
Q3'25$1.2B+3.1%$511.1M+18.8%2.62$875.1M
Q2'25$1.2B+2.4%$358.4M−30.8%1.76$872.7M
Q1'25$1.2B+2.2%$407.8M−19.9%2.04$705.1M
Q4'24 *$1.2B+1.5%$614.6M+39.9%3.22$768.6M
Q3'24$1.2B+3.8%$430.3M−29.8%2.16$798.8M
Q2'24$1.2B+4.8%$518.1M−10.4%2.66$895.3M
Q1'24$1.2B+5.8%$508.9M−1.7%2.60$665.6M
Q4'23 *$1.2B+6.6%$439.3M+6.5%2.21$791.7M
Q3'23$1.1B+5.1%$613.3M−77.9%3.20$875.7M
Q2'23$1.1B+8.5%$578.0M−11.6%3.00$882.4M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+4.9%+10.6%+7.3%+7.6%
Operating cash flow+0.7%+9.3%+6.2%+7.4%
Free cash flow+0.7%+9.3%+6.6%+7.9%
EPS (diluted)−27.4%+7.5%+4.0%+9.4%
Equity−2.8%+1.6%+0.1%+0.4%
LT debt+14.3%+32.1%
Diluted shares−0.1%+0.1%+0.1%+0.2%
Stock price+9.9%+4.6%+8.0%+10.7%

$100, 3 years ago

$133vs $176 in SPY

9.9% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$125vs $181 in SPY

4.6% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$217vs $412 in SPY

8.0% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$460vs $813 in SPY

10.7% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$1.88

$16.2B created / $8.6B retained

Last 10 years

$1.75

$18.6B created / $10.6B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

16.3%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

4.8%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.78

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

3.2y

SBC / FCF

1.3%

Owner earnings

$3.1B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

5.5%

Share count 5y

+0.2%

per year; negative = buybacks

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 54.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 13.7% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 7.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

18 of 24 checks pass · 75%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/7

  • Revenue growth

    10.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    7.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    9.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    9.3% vs 10.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

5/5

  • Net margin

    37.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    19.3% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    16.3% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    66.1% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $3.2B vs NI $1.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    3.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail
  • Cash cushion

    3% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    1.11 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $9.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    0.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    1 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    5.6% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    31.8 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    6.1% vs 6.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
20254,8241,7849.013,1863,18604031810,2549,248176
20244,6962,07210.643,1283,128200454479,3539,713176
20234,5182,14811.063,2473,2470423709,10310,013176
20224,1824,34923.503,1173,1172,3000577756,87110,073176
20213,4161,9539.872,5442,5441,402607357,4759,335176
20202,9151,3576.292,0432,0431,399332582,5458,559175
20192,8551,5217.292,0681871,8801,399264101,9029,063175
20182,7602,0151,7118.542,0641411,923703611,4129,119174
20172,6691,9611,4231,4426.731,9731211,8521,394384331,4318,940174
20162,5611,8911,3741,4546.811,945811,8641,268371843919,412174
20152,3821,7461,2321,3116.071,748661,6831,126331049,171174
20142,1771,5641,0551,1445.251,604811,523968301889,481173
20131,9651,4059511,0524.891,430691,361887198,792173
20121,8438729393.901,286681,218754178,094172
20111,7367638243.291,203701,1346211398,288171
20101,6146936722.351,093781,0165174568,677170
20091,6238353.471,113621,05137207648,928169
20081,7209354.181,077761,0014711126818,709169
20071,787458-0.011,04869979-33902459,263170

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.