PNC
PNC Financial Services · Financials · Diversified Banks
$243.68
52w 176.88 – 258.96
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$97.2B
P/E
13.8
P/FCF
22.0
FCF yield
4.5%
ROE
11.5%
Shldr yield
4.1%
div 2.7% + bb 1.4%
What today's price assumes
At $97.2B, the market is pricing in 9.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -2.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $107 · $107 · $132 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 5.7× across 18 years, PNC would trade near $63/share (25th–75th percentile: $48–$111); it trades at 22.2× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+3.0%
Rev 5y
+6.4%
Rev 10y
+4.3%
EPS 5y
−0.4%
EPS 10y
+8.4%
FCF 5y
−1.2%
FCF 10y
−2.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $6.9B | +21.4% | $2.0B | +25.4% | 4.81 | $2.1B |
| Q1'26 | $6.2B | +13.1% | $1.8B | +18.2% | 4.13 | $1.9B |
| Q4'25 * | $6.1B | +9.1% | $2.0B | +25.9% | 4.88 | $757.0M |
| Q3'25 | $5.9B | +8.9% | $1.8B | +21.1% | 4.35 | $2.7B |
| Q2'25 | $5.7B | +4.6% | $1.6B | +10.2% | 3.85 | $1.5B |
| Q1'25 | $5.5B | +6.0% | $1.5B | +11.5% | 3.51 | −$509.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $5.6B | +3.8% | $1.6B | +84.3% | 3.76 | $1.8B |
| Q3'24 | $5.4B | +3.8% | $1.5B | −4.1% | 3.49 | $3.3B |
| Q2'24 | $5.4B | +2.2% | $1.5B | −1.5% | 3.39 | $1.0B |
| Q1'24 | $5.1B | −8.2% | $1.3B | −20.7% | 3.10 | $1.8B |
| Q4'23 * | $5.4B | −7.0% | $883.0M | −43.0% | 1.85 | $4.9B |
| Q3'23 | $5.2B | −5.7% | $1.6B | −4.3% | 3.60 | $115.0M |
| Q2'23 | $5.3B | +3.5% | $1.5B | +0.3% | 3.36 | $3.3B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.0% | +6.4% | +4.3% | +2.8% |
| Operating cash flow | −21.6% | −1.2% | −2.3% | −0.6% |
| Free cash flow | −21.6% | −1.2% | −2.3% | −0.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | +6.2% | −0.4% | +8.4% | +7.3% |
| Equity | +9.8% | +2.3% | +3.1% | +4.7% |
| LT debt | −0.9% | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −1.3% | −1.5% | −2.7% | −1.8% |
| Stock price | +31.1% | +8.9% | +14.1% | +14.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$226vs $176 in SPY
31.1% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$153vs $181 in SPY
8.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$375vs $412 in SPY
14.1% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$761vs $813 in SPY
14.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$2.00
$36.7B created / $18.4B retained
Last 10 years
$1.44
$54.9B created / $38.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
3.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.9%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.20
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
13.0y
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
$4.4B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.5%
Share count 5y
+1.0%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 80.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -0.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -0.7% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
14 of 23 checks pass · 61%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- pass
Revenue growth
6.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-0.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-1.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-1.2% vs 6.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
2/5
- pass
Net margin
30.3% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
11.5% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
3.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
19.0% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $4.4B vs NI $7.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
13.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
70% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.94 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$60.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/3
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
91% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.5% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
13.8 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
9.0% vs -2.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23,099 | — | — | 6,997 | 16.59 | 4,384 | — | 4,384 | 2,635 | 1,338 | — | 39,713 | 57,101 | 60,585 | 396 |
| 2024 | 21,555 | — | — | 5,953 | 13.74 | 7,880 | — | 7,880 | 2,537 | 687 | — | 46,251 | 61,673 | 54,425 | 400 |
| 2023 | 21,490 | — | — | 5,647 | 12.79 | 10,111 | — | 10,111 | 2,461 | 651 | — | 50,725 | 72,737 | 51,105 | 401 |
| 2022 | 21,120 | — | — | 6,113 | 13.85 | 9,083 | — | 9,083 | 2,391 | 3,731 | — | 34,363 | 58,726 | 45,774 | 412 |
| 2021 | 19,211 | — | — | 5,725 | 12.70 | 7,214 | — | 7,214 | 2,056 | 1,079 | — | 82,254 | — | 55,695 | 426 |
| 2020 | 16,901 | — | — | 7,558 | 16.96 | 4,659 | — | 4,659 | 1,980 | 1,624 | — | 7,017 | — | 54,010 | 427 |
| 2019 | 16,839 | — | — | 5,418 | 11.39 | 7,363 | — | 7,363 | 1,895 | 3,578 | — | 5,061 | — | 49,314 | 448 |
| 2018 | 16,190 | — | — | 5,346 | 10.71 | 7,840 | — | 7,840 | 1,601 | 2,877 | — | 5,608 | — | 47,728 | 470 |
| 2017 | 16,329 | — | — | 5,388 | 10.36 | 5,579 | — | 5,579 | 1,266 | 2,447 | 200 | 5,249 | — | 47,513 | 486 |
| 2016 | 15,162 | — | — | 3,985 | 7.30 | 3,500 | — | 3,500 | 1,061 | 2,062 | 200 | — | — | 45,699 | 500 |
| 2015 | 15,225 | — | — | 4,143 | 7.39 | 5,525 | — | 5,525 | 1,038 | 2,152 | 200 | — | — | 44,710 | 521 |
| 2014 | 15,375 | — | — | 4,207 | 7.30 | 5,585 | — | 5,585 | 1,000 | 1,176 | 200 | — | — | 44,551 | 537 |
| 2013 | 16,012 | — | — | 4,212 | 7.36 | 5,555 | — | 5,555 | 911 | 24 | 154 | — | — | 42,334 | 532 |
| 2012 | 15,512 | — | — | 2,994 | 5.28 | 6,827 | — | 6,827 | 820 | 216 | 101 | — | — | 39,003 | 529 |
| 2011 | 14,326 | — | — | 3,071 | 5.64 | 6,035 | — | 6,035 | 604 | 73 | 103 | — | — | 34,053 | 526 |
| 2010 | 15,176 | — | — | 3,397 | 5.74 | 4,812 | — | 4,812 | 204 | 204 | 107 | — | — | 30,242 | 520 |
| 2009 | 16,228 | — | — | 2,403 | 4.36 | 5,754 | — | 5,754 | 430 | 188 | 93 | — | — | 29,942 | 455 |
| 2008 | 6,296 | — | — | 914 | 2.44 | 7,414 | — | 7,414 | 902 | 234 | 71 | — | — | 25,422 | 346 |
| 2007 | 5,891 | — | — | 1,491 | 4.32 | -416 | — | -416 | 806 | 963 | — | — | — | 16,508 | 334 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.