PM
Philip Morris International · Consumer Staples · Tobacco
$191.46
52w 142.11 – 207.76
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$298.4B
P/E
25.9
P/FCF
27.5
FCF yield
3.6%
ROE
-113.5%
Shldr yield
2.9%
div 2.9% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $298.4B, the market is pricing in 12.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 4.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $104 · $108 · $134 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 9.8× across 17 years, PM would trade near $77/share (25th–75th percentile: $53–$95); it trades at 24.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+8.6%
Rev 5y
+7.2%
Rev 10y
−5.8%
EPS 5y
+7.1%
EPS 10y
+5.1%
FCF 5y
+3.0%
FCF 10y
+4.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $11.2B | +10.4% | $2.8B | −7.3% | 1.80 | $5.5B |
| Q1'26 | $10.1B | +9.1% | $2.4B | −9.4% | 1.56 | −$399.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $10.4B | +6.8% | $2.1B | — | 1.36 | $4.7B |
| Q3'25 | $10.8B | +9.4% | $3.5B | +12.8% | 2.23 | $4.5B |
| Q2'25 | $10.1B | +7.1% | $3.0B | +26.3% | 1.95 | $3.4B |
| Q1'25 | $9.3B | +5.8% | $2.7B | +25.2% | 1.72 | −$350.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $9.7B | +7.3% | −$579.0M | −126.4% | -0.37 | $4.0B |
| Q3'24 | $9.9B | +8.4% | $3.1B | +50.0% | 1.97 | $3.3B |
| Q2'24 | $9.5B | +5.6% | $2.4B | +53.4% | 1.54 | $4.6B |
| Q1'24 | $8.8B | +9.7% | $2.1B | +7.7% | 1.38 | $241.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $9.0B | +11.0% | $2.2B | −8.4% | 1.41 | $3.3B |
| Q3'23 | $9.1B | +13.8% | $2.1B | −1.6% | 1.32 | $3.4B |
| Q2'23 | $9.0B | +14.5% | $1.6B | −29.8% | 1.01 | $3.4B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +8.6% | +7.2% | −5.8% | −3.3% |
| Operating cash flow | +4.2% | +4.5% | +4.5% | +1.7% |
| Free cash flow | +3.1% | +3.0% | +4.4% | +1.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | +7.7% | +7.1% | +5.1% | +4.2% |
| Equity | −68.7% | — | — | — |
| LT debt | +9.0% | +9.9% | +6.0% | +8.4% |
| Diluted shares | +0.1% | 0.0% | +0.1% | −1.1% |
| Stock price | +31.4% | +18.6% | +12.1% | +12.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$227vs $176 in SPY
31.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$235vs $181 in SPY
18.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$314vs $412 in SPY
12.1% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$556vs $813 in SPY
12.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$42.65
$179.0B created / $4.2B retained
Last 10 years
$31.67
$191.4B created / $6.0B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
34.8%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.7%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.40
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
4.2y
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
$10.7B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
3.6%
Share count 5y
−1.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
—
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 38.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 11.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 4.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 26 checks pass · 65%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
7.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
7.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
3.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
4.5% vs 7.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
27.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
36.6% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
67.1% vs 64.1% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-113.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
34.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
26.2% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $12.2B vs NI $11.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
4.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
11% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
-4.52 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
−$10.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
11% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/3
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
81% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
2 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.6% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
25.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
12.0% vs 4.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40,648 | 27,282 | 14,892 | 11,348 | 7.26 | 12,233 | 1,569 | 10,664 | 8,624 | — | — | 4,872 | 45,134 | -9,994 | 1,558 |
| 2024 | 37,878 | 24,549 | 13,402 | 7,057 | 4.52 | 12,217 | 1,444 | 10,773 | 8,197 | 0 | — | 4,216 | 42,166 | -11,750 | 1,556 |
| 2023 | 35,174 | 22,281 | 11,556 | 7,813 | 5.02 | 9,204 | 1,321 | 7,883 | 7,964 | 0 | — | 3,060 | 41,243 | -11,225 | 1,553 |
| 2022 | 31,762 | 20,360 | 12,246 | 9,048 | 5.81 | 10,803 | 1,077 | 9,726 | 7,812 | 209 | — | 3,207 | 34,875 | -8,957 | 1,552 |
| 2021 | 31,405 | 21,375 | 12,975 | 9,109 | 5.83 | 11,967 | 748 | 11,219 | 7,580 | 775 | — | 4,496 | 24,783 | -10,106 | 1,559 |
| 2020 | 28,694 | 19,125 | 11,668 | 8,056 | 5.16 | 9,812 | 602 | 9,210 | 7,364 | 0 | — | 7,280 | 28,168 | -12,567 | 1,558 |
| 2019 | 29,805 | 19,292 | 10,531 | 7,185 | 4.61 | 10,090 | 852 | 9,238 | 7,161 | 0 | — | 6,861 | 26,656 | -11,577 | 1,556 |
| 2018 | 29,625 | 18,867 | 11,377 | 7,911 | 5.08 | 9,478 | 1,436 | 8,042 | 6,885 | — | — | 6,593 | 26,975 | -12,459 | 1,555 |
| 2017 | 28,748 | 18,316 | 11,581 | 6,035 | 3.88 | 8,912 | 1,548 | 7,364 | 6,520 | 0 | — | 8,447 | 31,334 | -12,086 | 1,553 |
| 2016 | 26,685 | 17,294 | 10,903 | 6,967 | 4.48 | 8,077 | 1,172 | 6,905 | 6,378 | 0 | — | 4,239 | 25,851 | -12,688 | 1,551 |
| 2015 | 73,908 | 17,429 | 10,623 | 6,873 | 4.42 | 7,865 | 960 | 6,905 | 6,250 | 48 | — | 3,417 | 25,250 | -13,244 | 1,549 |
| 2014 | 80,106 | 19,331 | 11,702 | 7,493 | 4.76 | 7,739 | 1,153 | 6,586 | 6,035 | 3,833 | — | 1,682 | 26,929 | -12,629 | — |
| 2013 | 80,029 | 20,807 | 13,515 | 8,576 | 5.26 | 10,135 | 1,200 | 8,935 | 5,720 | 5,963 | — | 2,154 | 24,023 | -7,766 | 1,622 |
| 2012 | 77,393 | 21,004 | 13,863 | 8,800 | 5.17 | 9,421 | 1,056 | 8,365 | 5,404 | 6,525 | — | 2,983 | 17,639 | -3,476 | 1,692 |
| 2011 | 76,346 | 20,419 | 13,342 | 8,591 | 4.85 | 10,529 | 897 | 9,632 | 4,788 | 5,372 | 162 | 2,550 | 14,828 | 229 | 1,762 |
| 2010 | 67,713 | 17,495 | 11,200 | 7,259 | 3.92 | 9,437 | 713 | 8,724 | 4,423 | 5,030 | 127 | 1,703 | 13,370 | 3,506 | 1,842 |
| 2009 | 62,080 | 16,013 | 10,040 | 6,342 | 3.24 | 7,884 | 715 | 7,169 | 4,327 | 5,625 | 93 | 1,540 | 13,672 | 5,716 | 1,950 |
| 2008 | 63,640 | 16,377 | 10,248 | 6,890 | 3.31 | 7,935 | 1,099 | 6,836 | 2,060 | 5,256 | 68 | 1,531 | 11,377 | 7,500 | 2,076 |
| 2007 | 55,243 | 14,099 | 8,894 | 6,038 | 2.86 | 5,550 | 1,072 | 4,478 | 0 | 0 | — | 1,501 | — | 16,013 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.