PLD
Prologis · Real Estate · Industrial REITs
$143.36
52w 110.51 – 153.35
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$133.7B
P/E
39.4
P/FCF
26.2
FCF yield
3.8%
ROE
6.3%
Shldr yield
2.9%
div 2.9% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $133.7B, the market is pricing in 11.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 16.0% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $82 · $184 · $246 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 22.2× across 10 years, PLD would trade near $119/share (25th–75th percentile: $102–$122); it trades at 26.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+13.7%
Rev 5y
+14.6%
Rev 10y
+14.8%
EPS 5y
+12.1%
EPS 10y
+5.1%
FCF 5y
+11.3%
FCF 10y
+16.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $2.3B | +7.4% | $982.0M | +65.6% | 1.05 | $1.3B |
| Q4'25 | $2.3B | +2.4% | $1.5B | +10.4% | 1.49 | $1.2B |
| Q3'25 | $2.2B | +8.7% | $764.3M | −24.0% | 0.82 | $1.4B |
| Q2'25 | $2.2B | +8.8% | $571.2M | −33.7% | 0.61 | $1.2B |
| Q1'25 | $2.1B | +9.4% | $593.0M | +1.2% | 0.63 | $1.2B |
| Q4'24 | $2.2B | +16.5% | $1.3B | +98.6% | 1.37 | $1.3B |
| Q3'24 | $2.0B | +6.4% | $1.0B | +34.5% | 1.08 | $1.4B |
| Q2'24 | $2.0B | −18.1% | $861.3M | −29.2% | 0.92 | $1.1B |
| Q1'24 | $2.0B | +10.6% | $585.7M | +26.1% | 0.63 | $1.1B |
| Q4'23 | $1.9B | +7.9% | $675.9M | +9.0% | 0.68 | $1.1B |
| Q3'23 | $1.9B | +9.4% | $747.6M | −26.4% | 0.80 | $2.0B |
| Q2'23 | $2.5B | +95.8% | $1.2B | +98.9% | 1.31 | $1.2B |
| Q1'23 | $1.8B | +45.1% | $464.6M | −59.6% | 0.50 | $1.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +13.7% | +14.6% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +6.7% | +11.3% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +6.7% | +11.3% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | −5.7% | +12.1% | — | — |
| Equity | −0.0% | +10.7% | — | — |
| LT debt | +13.6% | +15.8% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +5.6% | +4.9% | — | — |
| Stock price | +8.3% | +4.2% | +13.6% | +15.2% |
$100, 3 years ago
$127vs $176 in SPY
8.3% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$123vs $181 in SPY
4.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$358vs $412 in SPY
13.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$830vs $813 in SPY
15.2% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$37.78
$56.4B created / $1.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
5.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.62
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
7.0y
SBC / FCF
3.7%
Owner earnings
$4.8B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
3.7%
Share count 5y
+6.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
2.5%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.02
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 173.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 5.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 9.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 26 checks pass · 65%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
14.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
12.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
11.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
11.3% vs 14.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/6
- pass
Net margin
37.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
49.6% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
6.3% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
5.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
57.0% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.0B vs NI $3.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
7.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
3% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.66 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$53.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
23% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
6.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
75% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
39.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
11.4% vs 16.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8,790 | — | 4,358 | 3,328 | 3.56 | 5,008 | — | 5,008 | 3,765 | — | 185 | 1,146 | 35,037 | 53,193 | 957 |
| 2024 | 8,202 | — | 4,416 | 3,732 | 4.01 | 4,912 | — | 4,912 | 3,570 | — | 232 | 1,319 | 30,879 | 53,951 | 954 |
| 2023 | 8,023 | — | 3,708 | 3,059 | 3.29 | 5,373 | — | 5,373 | 3,229 | — | 268 | 530 | 29,001 | 53,182 | 952 |
| 2022 | 5,974 | — | 3,468 | 3,365 | 4.25 | 4,126 | — | 4,126 | 2,495 | — | 175 | 278 | 23,876 | 53,237 | 812 |
| 2021 | 4,759 | — | 3,207 | 2,940 | 3.94 | 2,996 | — | 2,996 | 1,873 | — | 113 | 556 | 215 | 33,427 | 765 |
| 2020 | 4,439 | — | 2,119 | 1,482 | 2.01 | 2,937 | — | 2,937 | 1,723 | — | 110 | 598 | 16,849 | 31,972 | 754 |
| 2019 | 3,331 | — | 1,850 | 1,573 | 2.46 | 2,264 | — | 2,264 | 1,346 | — | 98 | 1,089 | 11,906 | 22,653 | 655 |
| 2018 | 2,804 | — | 1,688 | 1,649 | 2.87 | 1,804 | 93 | 1,710 | 1,123 | — | 76 | 344 | 11,090 | 22,298 | 590 |
| 2017 | 2,618 | — | 1,954 | 1,652 | 3.06 | 1,687 | 111 | 1,577 | 943 | — | 77 | 447 | 9,413 | 15,631 | 552 |
| 2016 | 2,533 | — | 668 | 1,210 | 2.27 | 1,417 | 102 | 1,315 | 893 | — | 60 | 807 | 10,608 | 14,991 | 547 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.