MMarketMath

PLD

Fast growerQuality: High (70/100)2 red flags

Prologis · Real Estate · Industrial REITs

$132.47

52w 111.38 – 153.35

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$123.5B

P/E

36.2

P/FCF

24.1

FCF yield

4.2%

ROE

6.3%

Shldr yield

3.1%

div 3.1% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $123.5B, the market is pricing in 10.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 16.0% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $82 · $184 · $246 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 22.2× across 10 years, PLD would trade near $119/share (25th–75th percentile: $102–$122); it trades at 24.7× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+13.7%

Rev 5y

+14.6%

Rev 10y

+14.8%

EPS 5y

+12.1%

EPS 10y

+5.1%

FCF 5y

+11.3%

FCF 10y

+16.0%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2016: $2.5B
2017: $2.6B
2018: $2.8B
2019: $3.3B
2020: $4.4B
2021: $4.8B
2022: $6.0B
2023: $8.0B
2024: $8.2B
2025: $8.8B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
16
18
20
22
24

Net income

2016: $1.2B
2017: $1.7B
2018: $1.6B
2019: $1.6B
2020: $1.5B
2021: $2.9B
2022: $3.4B
2023: $3.1B
2024: $3.7B
2025: $3.3B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Free cash flow

2016: $1.3B
2017: $1.6B
2018: $1.7B
2019: $2.3B
2020: $2.9B
2021: $3.0B
2022: $4.1B
2023: $5.4B
2024: $4.9B
2025: $5.0B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2016: 546.7M
2017: 552.3M
2018: 590.2M
2019: 654.9M
2020: 754.4M
2021: 764.8M
2022: 811.6M
2023: 951.8M
2024: 953.6M
2025: 956.8M
0250.0M500.0M750.0M
16
18
20
22
24

Margins

40%60%1618202224
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2016: $893.5M
2017: $942.9M
2018: $1.1B
2019: $1.3B
2020: $1.7B
2021: $1.9B
2022: $2.5B
2023: $3.2B
2024: $3.6B
2025: $3.8B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$20.0B1618202224
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'23: $1.8B
Q2'23: $2.5B
Q3'23: $1.9B
Q4'23: $1.9B
Q1'24: $2.0B
Q2'24: $2.0B
Q3'24: $2.0B
Q4'24: $2.2B
Q1'25: $2.1B
Q2'25: $2.2B
Q3'25: $2.2B
Q4'25: $2.3B
Q1'26: $2.3B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
23
23
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q1'23: $464.6M
Q2'23: $1.2B
Q3'23: $747.6M
Q4'23: $675.9M
Q1'24: $585.7M
Q2'24: $861.3M
Q3'24: $1.0B
Q4'24: $1.3B
Q1'25: $593.0M
Q2'25: $571.2M
Q3'25: $764.3M
Q4'25: $1.5B
Q1'26: $982.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
23
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'26$2.3B+7.4%$982.0M+65.6%1.05$1.3B
Q4'25$2.3B+2.4%$1.5B+10.4%1.49$1.2B
Q3'25$2.2B+8.7%$764.3M−24.0%0.82$1.4B
Q2'25$2.2B+8.8%$571.2M−33.7%0.61$1.2B
Q1'25$2.1B+9.4%$593.0M+1.2%0.63$1.2B
Q4'24$2.2B+16.5%$1.3B+98.6%1.37$1.3B
Q3'24$2.0B+6.4%$1.0B+34.5%1.08$1.4B
Q2'24$2.0B−18.1%$861.3M−29.2%0.92$1.1B
Q1'24$2.0B+10.6%$585.7M+26.1%0.63$1.1B
Q4'23$1.9B+7.9%$675.9M+9.0%0.68$1.1B
Q3'23$1.9B+9.4%$747.6M−26.4%0.80$2.0B
Q2'23$2.5B+95.8%$1.2B+98.9%1.31$1.2B
Q1'23$1.8B+45.1%$464.6M−59.6%0.50$1.1B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+13.7%+14.6%——
Operating cash flow+6.7%+11.3%——
Free cash flow+6.7%+11.3%——
EPS (diluted)−5.7%+12.1%——
Equity−0.0%+10.7%——
LT debt+13.6%+15.8%——
Diluted shares+5.6%+4.9%——
Stock price+12.8%+1.0%+12.8%+13.8%

$100, 3 years ago

$144vs $192 in SPY

12.8% vs 24.4%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$105vs $181 in SPY

1.0% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$335vs $428 in SPY

12.8% vs 15.6%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$695vs $803 in SPY

13.8% vs 14.9%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$37.78

$56.4B created / $1.5B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

5.7%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.2%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.41

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

7.0y

SBC / FCF

3.7%

Owner earnings

$4.8B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

4.0%

Share count 5y

+6.4%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

2.5%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.02

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 173.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 5.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 9.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

17 of 26 checks pass · 65%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/7

  • Revenue growth

    14.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    12.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    11.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    11.3% vs 14.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

4/6

  • Net margin

    37.9% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    49.6% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    6.3% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • Cash ROIC

    5.7% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • FCF margin

    57.0% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $5.0B vs NI $3.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    7.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    3% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.66 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $53.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    23% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

2/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    6.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail

  • Stock comp restrained

    4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    75% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

3/4

  • FCF yield

    4.2% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    36.2 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    10.2% vs 16.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    3.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Heavy debt load

Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
20258,790—4,3583,3283.565,008—5,0083,765—1851,14635,03753,193957
20248,202—4,4163,7324.014,912—4,9123,570—2321,31930,87953,951954
20238,023—3,7083,0593.295,373—5,3733,229—26853029,00153,182952
20225,974—3,4683,3654.254,126—4,1262,495—17527823,87653,237812
20214,759—3,2072,9403.942,996—2,9961,873—11355621533,427765
20204,439—2,1191,4822.012,937—2,9371,723—11059816,84931,972754
20193,331—1,8501,5732.462,264—2,2641,346—981,08911,90622,653655
20182,804—1,6881,6492.871,804931,7101,123—7634411,09022,298590
20172,618—1,9541,6523.061,6871111,577943—774479,41315,631552
20162,533—6681,2102.271,4171021,315893—6080710,60814,991547

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗