MMarketMath

PH

StalwartQuality: High (92/100)

Parker Hannifin · Industrials · Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

$1,014.24

52w 715.37 – 1,099.94

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$127.8B

P/E

34.6

P/FCF

32.3

FCF yield

3.1%

ROE

23.7%

Shldr yield

1.7%

div 0.7% + bb 1.0%

What today's price assumes

At $127.8B, the market is pricing in 14.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 13.9% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $472 · $978 · $1,219 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 11.1× across 19 years, PH would trade near $384/share (25th–75th percentile: $324–$519); it trades at 29.3× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+4.1%

Rev 5y

+8.4%

Rev 10y

+6.6%

EPS 5y

+16.4%

EPS 10y

+17.1%

FCF 5y

+10.5%

FCF 10y

+13.9%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings

Revenue

2008: $12.1B
2009: $10.3B
2010: $10.0B
2011: $12.3B
2012: $13.1B
2013: $13.0B
2014: $13.2B
2015: $12.7B
2016: $11.4B
2017: $12.0B
2018: $14.3B
2019: $14.3B
2020: $13.7B
2021: $14.3B
2022: $15.9B
2023: $19.1B
2024: $19.9B
2025: $19.9B
2026: $21.5B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Net income

2008: $949.5M
2009: $508.5M
2010: $554.1M
2011: $1.0B
2012: $1.2B
2013: $948.4M
2014: $1.0B
2015: $1.0B
2016: $806.8M
2017: $983.4M
2018: $1.1B
2019: $1.5B
2020: $1.2B
2021: $1.7B
2022: $1.3B
2023: $2.1B
2024: $2.8B
2025: $3.5B
2026: $3.6B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Free cash flow

2008: $1.0B
2009: $858.5M
2010: $1.1B
2011: $959.6M
2012: $1.3B
2013: $925.0M
2014: $1.2B
2015: $1.1B
2016: $1.1B
2017: $1.1B
2018: $1.3B
2019: $1.5B
2020: $1.8B
2021: $2.4B
2022: $2.2B
2023: $2.6B
2024: $3.0B
2025: $3.3B
2026: $3.9B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 171.6M
2009: 162.7M
2010: 162.9M
2011: 164.8M
2012: 154.7M
2013: 151.6M
2014: 151.4M
2015: 145.1M
2016: 136.9M
2017: 135.6M
2018: 135.4M
2019: 131.8M
2020: 129.8M
2021: 130.8M
2022: 130.4M
2023: 129.9M
2024: 130.2M
2025: 130.2M
2026: 128.1M
050.0M100.0M150.0M
08
12
16
20
24

Margins

10%20%08111417202326
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2008: $726.9M
2009: $609.4M
2010: $187.7M
2011: $899.2M
2012: $697.6M
2013: $513.0M
2014: $482.3M
2015: $1.8B
2016: $929.3M
2017: $683.5M
2018: $746.3M
2019: $1.3B
2020: $669.9M
2021: $694.0M
2022: $1.0B
2023: $1.0B
2024: $1.1B
2025: $2.6B
2026: $2.2B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$5.0B$10.0B08111417202326
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q4'23: $5.1B
Q1'24: $4.8B
Q2'24: $4.8B
Q3'24: $5.1B
Q4'24: $5.2B
Q1'25: $4.9B
Q2'25: $4.7B
Q3'25: $5.0B
Q4'25: $5.2B
Q1'26: $5.1B
Q2'26: $5.2B
Q3'26: $5.5B
Q4'26: $5.8B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
24
25
26
26

Net income by quarter

Q4'23: $708.5M
Q1'24: $651.1M
Q2'24: $682.1M
Q3'24: $726.7M
Q4'24: $784.4M
Q1'25: $698.0M
Q2'25: $949.0M
Q3'25: $962.0M
Q4'25: $923.0M
Q1'26: $808.0M
Q2'26: $845.0M
Q3'26: $904.0M
Q4'26: $1.1B
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
25
26
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q4'26 *$5.8B+9.8%$1.1B+18.3%8.53$1.7B
Q3'26$5.5B+10.6%$904.0M−6.0%7.06$984.0M
Q2'26$5.2B+9.1%$845.0M−11.0%6.60$862.0M
Q1'26$5.1B+3.7%$808.0M+15.8%6.29$782.0M
Q4'25 *$5.2B+1.1%$923.0M+17.7%7.16$1.5B
Q3'25$5.0B−2.3%$962.0M+32.4%7.37$630.0M
Q2'25$4.7B−1.6%$949.0M+39.1%7.25$935.0M
Q1'25$4.9B+1.2%$698.0M+7.2%5.34$744.0M
Q4'24 *$5.2B+1.8%$784.4M+10.7%6.06$1.2B
Q3'24$5.1B+0.3%$726.7M+23.0%5.56$795.1M
Q2'24$4.8B+3.1%$682.1M+72.5%5.23$702.0M
Q1'24$4.8B+14.5%$651.1M+67.8%4.99$650.0M
Q4'23 *$5.1B+21.7%$708.5M+452.1%5.48$1.2B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+4.1%+8.4%+6.6%+3.8%
Operating cash flow+13.6%+11.1%+13.7%+9.2%
Free cash flow+14.5%+10.5%+13.9%+9.8%
EPS (diluted)+21.1%+16.4%+17.1%+10.5%
Equity+14.3%+12.9%+12.9%+7.3%
LT debt−5.3%+2.6%+10.9%+10.4%
Diluted shares−0.5%−0.4%−0.7%−1.7%
Stock price+35.8%+29.4%+25.4%+21.1%

$100, 3 years ago

$250vs $176 in SPY

35.8% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$363vs $181 in SPY

29.4% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$959vs $412 in SPY

25.4% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,766vs $813 in SPY

21.1% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$9.07

$86.8B created / $9.6B retained

Last 10 years

$7.96

$111.7B created / $14.0B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

19.1%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.3%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.89

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.9y

SBC / FCF

4.6%

Owner earnings

$3.7B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

2.9%

Share count 5y

−1.6%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

14.0%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.11

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 48.0% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 22.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 10.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

22 of 26 checks pass · 85%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

7/7

  • Revenue growth

    8.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    16.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    10.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    11.1% vs 8.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    17.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    23.6% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    23.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    19.1% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    18.2% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $4.4B vs NI $3.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass

  • Cash cushion

    7% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.49 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $15.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    8% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -1.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    56% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

1/4

  • FCF yield

    3.1% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    34.6 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    14.2% vs 13.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail

  • Shareholder yield

    1.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202621,499—5,0683,64928.484,3644593,9059361,2621795017,47215,404128
202519,850—4,3473,53227.123,7764353,3418611,7661594677,50113,682130
202419,930—4,0692,84421.843,3844002,9847823321554228,41212,072130
202319,065—3,4042,08316.042,9803812,5997042971434758,79610,327130
202215,862—2,9751,31610.092,4422302,2125704601375369,7568,848130
202114,348—2,4601,74613.352,5752102,3654752191217336,5828,398131
202013,696—1,9671,2029.262,0712331,8384542161116867,6526,227130
201914,320—2,2361,52511.571,7301951,5354128601043,2206,5215,962132
201814,302—2,0381,0617.831,5972481,3493653811198224,3195,860135
201712,0292,8401,7909837.251,3012041,097345338808854,8625,262136
201611,3612,5371,5768075.891,2111491,061342587711,2222,6524,575137
201512,7123,0561,8381,0126.971,3632161,1483401,436961,1812,7245,104145
201413,2163,0281,7901,0416.871,3882161,1722782041031,6141,5086,659151
201313,0162,9291,7919486.261,191266925255258851,7811,4965,738152
201213,1463,1882,0031,1527.451,5302191,312241457818381,5044,897155
201112,3462,9581,8231,0496.371,167207960206693736571,6915,384165
20109,9932,1461,1435543.401,2191291,09016325595761,4144,368163
200910,3092,1281,0045093.131,129271858162448471881,8404,268163
200812,1462,807—9495.531,3172801,03614258545326—5,330172

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗