PGR
Progressive Corporation · Financials · Property & Casualty Insurance
$223.92
52w 189.20 – 249.83
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$130.2B
P/E
11.3
P/FCF
7.4
FCF yield
13.5%
ROE
37.3%
Shldr yield
2.3%
div 2.3% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $130.2B, the market is pricing in -6.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 23.0% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $451 · $1,012 · $1,458 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.1× across 19 years, PGR would trade near $183/share (25th–75th percentile: $155–$205); it trades at 7.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+20.9%
Rev 5y
+15.5%
Rev 10y
+15.4%
EPS 5y
+14.8%
EPS 10y
+24.5%
FCF 5y
+20.8%
FCF 10y
+23.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $23.6B | +7.3% | $3.3B | +4.3% | 5.67 | $3.6B |
| Q1'26 | $22.2B | +8.7% | $2.8B | +9.8% | 4.80 | $4.4B |
| Q4'25 * | $22.7B | +12.2% | $3.0B | +25.3% | 5.01 | $3.2B |
| Q3'25 | $22.5B | +14.2% | $2.6B | +12.0% | 4.45 | $5.2B |
| Q2'25 | $22.0B | +21.3% | $3.2B | +117.6% | 5.40 | $4.0B |
| Q1'25 | $20.4B | +18.4% | $2.6B | +10.1% | 4.37 | $5.1B |
| Q4'24 * | $20.3B | +20.0% | $2.4B | +18.5% | 4.01 | $3.0B |
| Q3'24 | $19.7B | +26.7% | $2.3B | +108.2% | 3.97 | $4.6B |
| Q2'24 | $18.1B | +18.1% | $1.5B | +322.4% | 2.48 | $3.3B |
| Q1'24 | $17.2B | +20.6% | $2.3B | +420.4% | 3.94 | $4.2B |
| Q4'23 * | $16.9B | +25.4% | $2.0B | +140.5% | 3.37 | $2.4B |
| Q3'23 | $15.6B | +21.8% | $1.1B | +803.5% | 1.89 | $3.4B |
| Q2'23 | $15.4B | +33.3% | $345.4M | — | 0.57 | $2.3B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +20.9% | +15.5% | +15.4% | +12.4% |
| Operating cash flow | +36.8% | +20.5% | +22.6% | +16.9% |
| Free cash flow | +37.9% | +20.8% | +23.0% | +17.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | +153.5% | +14.8% | +24.5% | +18.0% |
| Equity | +24.0% | +12.2% | +15.3% | +11.3% |
| LT debt | +9.5% | +6.7% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +0.1% | +0.0% | −0.0% | −0.8% |
| Stock price | +22.4% | +21.0% | +24.7% | +21.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$184vs $176 in SPY
22.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$260vs $181 in SPY
21.0% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$908vs $412 in SPY
24.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,874vs $813 in SPY
21.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$3.82
$76.5B created / $20.0B retained
Last 10 years
$3.60
$108.7B created / $30.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
57.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
13.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.73
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
0.8%
Owner earnings
$17.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
13.4%
Share count 5y
−1.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 22.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 80.5% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 18.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
23 of 24 checks pass · 96%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
15.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
14.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
20.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
20.5% vs 15.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
12.9% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
37.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
57.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
19.6% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $17.5B vs NI $11.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
— · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$30.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
17% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
1 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
13.5% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
11.3 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-6.2% vs 23.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 87,671 | — | — | 11,308 | 19.23 | 17,548 | 348 | 17,200 | 2,871 | — | 132 | 138 | — | 30,323 | 588 |
| 2024 | 75,372 | — | — | 8,480 | 14.40 | 15,119 | 285 | 14,834 | 674 | — | 122 | 154 | — | 25,591 | 588 |
| 2023 | 62,109 | — | — | 3,903 | 6.58 | 10,643 | 252 | 10,391 | 234 | — | 121 | 100 | — | 20,277 | 588 |
| 2022 | 49,611 | — | — | 722 | 1.18 | 6,849 | 292 | 6,557 | 234 | — | — | 221 | — | 15,891 | 587 |
| 2021 | 47,702 | — | — | 3,351 | 5.66 | 7,762 | 244 | 7,518 | 3,747 | — | — | 202 | — | 18,232 | 587 |
| 2020 | 42,658 | — | — | 5,705 | 9.66 | 6,906 | 224 | 6,682 | 1,551 | — | — | 77 | — | 17,039 | 588 |
| 2019 | 39,022 | — | — | 3,970 | 6.72 | 6,262 | 364 | 5,898 | 1,643 | — | — | 227 | — | 13,673 | 587 |
| 2018 | 31,979 | — | — | 2,615 | 4.42 | 6,285 | 266 | 6,019 | 655 | — | — | 75 | — | 10,822 | 587 |
| 2017 | 26,839 | — | — | 1,592 | 2.72 | 3,757 | 156 | 3,601 | 395 | — | — | 275 | — | 9,285 | 586 |
| 2016 | 23,441 | — | — | 1,031 | 1.76 | 2,733 | 215 | 2,518 | 519 | 193 | — | 226 | — | 7,957 | 585 |
| 2015 | 20,854 | — | — | 1,268 | 2.15 | 2,293 | 131 | 2,162 | 404 | 209 | — | 224 | 2,708 | 7,289 | 589 |
| 2014 | 19,391 | — | — | 1,281 | 2.15 | 1,726 | 108 | 1,618 | 893 | 271 | — | 108 | 2,165 | 6,929 | 595 |
| 2013 | 18,171 | — | — | 1,165 | 1.93 | 1,900 | 140 | 1,760 | 176 | 273 | — | — | 1,861 | 6,190 | 604 |
| 2012 | 17,084 | — | — | 902 | 1.48 | 1,691 | 128 | 1,564 | 854 | 174 | — | — | 2,063 | 6,007 | 608 |
| 2011 | 15,775 | — | — | 1,016 | 1.59 | 1,498 | 79 | 1,419 | 264 | 998 | — | — | 2,442 | 5,807 | 637 |
| 2010 | 15,216 | — | — | 1,068 | 1.61 | 1,679 | 65 | 1,615 | 764 | 259 | — | — | 1,958 | 6,049 | 663 |
| 2009 | 14,564 | — | — | 1,058 | 1.57 | 1,487 | 67 | 1,420 | 0 | 181 | — | — | 2,177 | 5,749 | 672 |
| 2008 | 12,840 | — | — | -70 | -0.10 | 1,549 | 99 | 1,451 | 98 | 179 | — | — | 2,176 | 4,215 | 674 |
| 2007 | 14,687 | — | — | 1,183 | 1.65 | 1,791 | 136 | 1,655 | 1,407 | 1,548 | — | — | — | 4,936 | 719 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.