PFE
Pfizer · Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
$27.97
52w 23.58 – 28.75
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$159.4B
P/E
20.5
P/FCF
17.6
FCF yield
5.7%
ROE
9.0%
Shldr yield
6.1%
div 6.1% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $159.4B, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -4.8% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $13 · $13 · $16 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.2× across 17 years, PFE would trade near $15/share (25th–75th percentile: $13–$22); it trades at 13.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−12.0%
Rev 5y
+8.5%
Rev 10y
+1.6%
EPS 5y
−3.6%
EPS 10y
−6.9%
FCF 5y
−5.7%
FCF 10y
−4.8%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $15.0B | +2.6% | −$248.0M | −108.5% | -0.04 | $835.0M |
| Q1'26 | $14.5B | +5.4% | $2.7B | −9.4% | 0.47 | $2.6B |
| Q4'25 * | $17.6B | −1.2% | −$1.6B | −501.7% | -0.29 | $5.3B |
| Q3'25 | $16.7B | −5.9% | $3.5B | −20.7% | 0.62 | $4.6B |
| Q2'25 | $14.7B | +10.3% | $2.9B | +6997.6% | 0.51 | −$582.0M |
| Q1'25 | $13.7B | −7.8% | $3.0B | −4.8% | 0.52 | $2.3B |
| Q4'24 * | $17.8B | +199.5% | $410.0M | — | 0.07 | $6.7B |
| Q3'24 | $17.7B | +31.2% | $4.5B | — | 0.78 | $6.7B |
| Q2'24 | $13.3B | +2.1% | $41.0M | −98.2% | 0.01 | −$1.8B |
| Q1'24 | $14.9B | −19.5% | $3.1B | −43.8% | 0.55 | $1.1B |
| Q4'23 * | $5.9B | −62.4% | −$3.4B | −167.5% | -0.59 | $5.2B |
| Q3'23 | $13.5B | −40.4% | −$2.4B | −127.7% | -0.42 | $3.5B |
| Q2'23 | $13.0B | −53.1% | $2.3B | −76.5% | 0.41 | −$1.2B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −12.0% | +8.5% | +1.6% | −0.3% |
| Operating cash flow | −26.3% | −4.1% | −3.4% | +0.1% |
| Free cash flow | −29.6% | −5.7% | −4.8% | −0.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | −37.1% | −3.6% | −6.9% | +1.9% |
| Equity | −3.3% | +6.5% | +1.0% | −0.1% |
| LT debt | +23.3% | +10.7% | +6.0% | +3.2% |
| Diluted shares | −0.1% | +0.3% | −1.6% | −2.3% |
| Stock price | −1.4% | −4.6% | +2.9% | +7.4% |
$100, 3 years ago
$96vs $176 in SPY
-1.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$79vs $181 in SPY
-4.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$133vs $412 in SPY
2.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$292vs $813 in SPY
7.4% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$-0.25
−$6.2B created / $24.7B retained
Last 10 years
$0.63
$31.2B created / $49.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
7.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.36
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
6.8y
SBC / FCF
8.8%
Owner earnings
$8.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.2%
Share count 5y
−1.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 50.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -5.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -2.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
14 of 24 checks pass · 58%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
3/7
- pass
Revenue growth
8.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-3.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-5.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-4.1% vs 8.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/5
- pass
Net margin
12.4% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
9.0% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
7.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
14.5% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $11.7B vs NI $7.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
6.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
2% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.71 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$86.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
9% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
108% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
5 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.7% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
20.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
5.9% vs -4.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
6.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 62,579 | — | — | 7,771 | 1.36 | 11,704 | 2,629 | 9,075 | 9,779 | — | 799 | 1,142 | 61,641 | 86,476 | 5,713 |
| 2024 | 63,627 | — | — | 8,031 | 1.41 | 12,744 | 2,909 | 9,835 | 9,577 | 0 | 877 | 1,043 | 57,405 | 88,203 | 5,700 |
| 2023 | 50,914 | — | — | 2,119 | 0.37 | 8,700 | 3,907 | 4,793 | 9,316 | 0 | 525 | 2,853 | 61,538 | 89,014 | 5,709 |
| 2022 | 91,793 | — | — | 31,372 | 5.47 | 29,267 | 3,236 | 26,031 | 9,037 | 2,000 | 872 | 416 | 32,884 | 95,661 | 5,733 |
| 2021 | 73,636 | — | — | 21,979 | 3.85 | 32,580 | 2,711 | 29,869 | 8,816 | 0 | 1,182 | 1,944 | 36,195 | 77,201 | 5,708 |
| 2020 | 41,651 | — | — | 9,159 | 1.63 | 14,403 | 2,226 | 12,177 | 8,571 | 0 | 755 | 1,786 | 37,133 | 63,238 | 5,632 |
| 2019 | 40,905 | — | — | 16,026 | 2.82 | 12,588 | 2,046 | 10,542 | 8,174 | 8,865 | 687 | 1,121 | 35,955 | 63,143 | 5,675 |
| 2018 | 40,825 | — | — | 11,153 | 1.87 | 15,827 | 1,984 | 13,843 | 8,060 | 12,198 | 923 | 1,139 | 32,909 | 63,407 | 5,977 |
| 2017 | 52,546 | — | — | 21,308 | 3.52 | 16,802 | 1,956 | 14,846 | 7,789 | 5,000 | 840 | 1,342 | 33,538 | 71,308 | 6,058 |
| 2016 | 52,824 | — | — | 7,215 | 1.17 | 16,192 | 1,823 | 14,369 | 7,446 | 5,000 | 691 | 2,595 | 31,398 | 59,544 | 6,159 |
| 2013 | 51,584 | — | — | 22,003 | 3.19 | 17,684 | 1,206 | 16,478 | 6,509 | 16,290 | 523 | 2,183 | 30,462 | 76,307 | 6,895 |
| 2012 | 54,657 | — | — | 14,570 | 1.94 | 16,746 | 1,327 | 15,419 | 6,537 | 8,228 | 481 | 10,081 | 31,036 | 81,260 | 7,508 |
| 2011 | 61,035 | — | — | 10,009 | 1.27 | 20,240 | 1,660 | 18,580 | 6,512 | 9,000 | 419 | 3,182 | 34,926 | 82,190 | 7,870 |
| 2010 | 65,165 | — | — | 8,257 | 1.02 | 11,454 | 1,513 | 9,941 | 5,964 | 1,000 | 405 | 1,735 | 38,410 | 87,813 | 8,074 |
| 2009 | 49,269 | — | — | 8,635 | 1.23 | 16,587 | 1,205 | 15,382 | 4,916 | 0 | 349 | 1,978 | 43,193 | 90,014 | 7,045 |
| 2008 | 48,296 | — | — | 8,104 | 1.20 | 18,238 | 1,701 | 16,537 | -8,617 | 500 | 384 | 2,122 | 7,963 | 57,556 | 6,750 |
| 2007 | 48,418 | — | — | 8,144 | 1.17 | 13,353 | 1,880 | 11,473 | 8,156 | 9,994 | 437 | 3,406 | — | 65,124 | 6,939 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.