PCAR
Paccar · Industrials · Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
$129.94
52w 92.25 – 139.24
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$68.4B
P/E
29.0
P/FCF
18.8
FCF yield
5.3%
ROE
12.3%
Shldr yield
3.3%
div 3.3% + bb 0.1%
What today's price assumes
At $68.4B, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 4.9% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $106 · $114 · $142 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 4.8× across 18 years, PCAR would trade near $40/share (25th–75th percentile: $33–$89); it trades at 15.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−0.4%
Rev 5y
+8.7%
Rev 10y
+4.1%
EPS 5y
+12.5%
EPS 10y
−0.1%
FCF 5y
+8.6%
FCF 10y
+4.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $7.5B | +0.5% | $752.0M | +3.9% | 1.43 | $700.8M |
| Q1'26 | $6.8B | −8.9% | $605.3M | +19.8% | 1.15 | $971.8M |
| Q4'25 * | $6.8B | −13.7% | $556.9M | −36.1% | 1.06 | $1.1B |
| Q3'25 | $6.7B | −19.0% | $590.0M | −39.3% | 1.12 | $1.5B |
| Q2'25 | $7.5B | −14.4% | $723.8M | −35.5% | 1.37 | $833.4M |
| Q1'25 | $7.4B | −14.9% | $505.1M | −57.7% | 0.96 | $910.3M |
| Q4'24 * | $7.9B | −12.9% | $872.0M | −38.5% | 1.65 | $1.4B |
| Q3'24 | $8.2B | −5.2% | $972.1M | −20.9% | 1.85 | $1.3B |
| Q2'24 | $8.8B | −1.2% | $1.1B | −8.1% | 2.13 | $440.0M |
| Q1'24 | $8.7B | +3.2% | $1.2B | +62.9% | 2.27 | $1.5B |
| Q4'23 * | $9.1B | +11.7% | $1.4B | +53.8% | 2.69 | $1.2B |
| Q3'23 | $8.7B | +23.2% | $1.2B | +59.7% | 2.34 | $1.3B |
| Q2'23 | $8.9B | +24.1% | $1.2B | +69.5% | 2.33 | $975.5M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −0.4% | +8.7% | +4.1% | +7.0% |
| Operating cash flow | +13.4% | +8.1% | +5.6% | +7.2% |
| Free cash flow | +13.7% | +8.6% | +4.9% | +6.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | −7.8% | +12.5% | −0.1% | +8.9% |
| Equity | +13.5% | +12.8% | +10.7% | +8.9% |
| LT debt | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +0.2% | +0.2% | +4.1% | +2.5% |
| Stock price | +20.7% | +23.3% | +16.7% | +15.7% |
$100, 3 years ago
$176vs $176 in SPY
20.7% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$285vs $181 in SPY
23.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$467vs $412 in SPY
16.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$886vs $813 in SPY
15.7% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$4.64
$38.2B created / $8.2B retained
Last 10 years
$4.81
$56.4B created / $11.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
22.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
6.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.56
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
0.7%
Owner earnings
$3.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.3%
Share count 5y
+2.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 47.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 16.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 7.7% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
20 of 24 checks pass · 83%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
8.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
12.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
8.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
8.1% vs 8.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
8.4% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
12.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
22.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
12.9% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $4.4B vs NI $2.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
— · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$19.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
2.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
63% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
29.0 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
6.9% vs 4.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Revenue declining
Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28,445 | — | — | 2,376 | 4.51 | 4,416 | 743 | 3,673 | 2,267 | 36 | 24 | — | — | 19,264 | 527 |
| 2024 | 33,664 | — | — | 4,162 | 7.90 | 4,641 | 839 | 3,802 | 2,289 | 5 | 23 | — | — | 17,507 | 527 |
| 2023 | 35,127 | — | — | 4,601 | 8.76 | 4,190 | 695 | 3,495 | 1,519 | 4 | 21 | — | — | 15,879 | 525 |
| 2022 | 28,820 | — | — | 3,012 | 5.75 | 3,027 | 525 | 2,502 | 1,005 | 2 | 17 | — | — | 13,167 | 523 |
| 2021 | 23,522 | — | — | 1,866 | 3.57 | 2,187 | 559 | 1,628 | 708 | 2 | 15 | — | — | 11,594 | 523 |
| 2020 | 18,729 | — | — | 1,301 | 2.50 | 2,987 | 550 | 2,437 | 1,240 | 42 | 13 | — | — | 10,533 | 521 |
| 2019 | 25,600 | — | — | 2,388 | 6.87 | 2,860 | 574 | 2,286 | 1,139 | 110 | 15 | — | — | 9,706 | 348 |
| 2018 | 23,496 | — | — | 2,195 | 6.24 | 2,992 | 458 | 2,535 | 804 | 354 | 13 | 3,436 | — | 8,593 | 352 |
| 2017 | 19,456 | — | — | 1,675 | 4.75 | 2,716 | 423 | 2,292 | 558 | — | 13 | 2,365 | — | 8,051 | 353 |
| 2016 | 17,033 | — | — | 522 | 0.00 | 2,301 | 375 | 1,926 | 829 | 71 | 13 | 1,916 | — | 6,778 | 353 |
| 2015 | 19,115 | — | — | 1,604 | 4.54 | 2,556 | 287 | 2,269 | 681 | 202 | 15 | 2,016 | — | 6,940 | 353 |
| 2014 | 18,997 | — | — | 1,359 | 3.85 | 2,124 | 298 | 1,825 | 624 | 43 | 16 | 1,738 | — | 6,753 | 353 |
| 2013 | 17,124 | — | — | 1,171 | 3.33 | 2,376 | 511 | 1,865 | 283 | — | 14 | 1,750 | — | 6,634 | 353 |
| 2012 | 17,051 | — | — | 1,112 | 3.14 | 1,519 | 515 | 1,004 | 810 | 162 | 14 | 1,272 | — | 5,847 | 353 |
| 2011 | 16,355 | — | — | 1,042 | 2.88 | 1,593 | 341 | 1,252 | 217 | 338 | 14 | 2,107 | — | 5,364 | 362 |
| 2010 | 10,293 | — | — | 458 | 1.26 | 1,551 | 168 | 1,383 | 252 | — | 9 | 2,041 | — | 5,358 | 363 |
| 2009 | 8,087 | — | — | 112 | 0.31 | 1,373 | 128 | 1,246 | 232 | 0 | 10 | 1,912 | — | 5,104 | 362 |
| 2008 | 14,973 | — | — | 1,018 | 2.80 | 1,305 | 463 | 842 | 629 | 231 | 10 | 1,955 | — | 4,847 | 363 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.