MMarketMath

OXY

Slow growerQuality: Medium (62/100)2 red flags

Occidental Petroleum · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$60.11

52w 38.80 – 67.45

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$60.1B

P/E

25.9

P/FCF

14.9

FCF yield

6.7%

ROE

6.6%

Shldr yield

1.5%

div 1.5% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $60.1B, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 23.7% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $63 · $140 · $202 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 4.2× across 18 years, OXY would trade near $44/share (25th–75th percentile: $41–$58); it trades at 5.7× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

−15.9%

Rev 5y

+4.7%

Rev 10y

+5.6%

EPS 5y

—

EPS 10y

—

FCF 5y

+23.7%

FCF 10y

—

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $18.8B
2008: $23.7B
2009: $14.8B
2010: $19.0B
2011: $23.9B
2012: $20.1B
2013: $20.2B
2014: $19.3B
2015: $12.5B
2016: $10.1B
2017: $12.5B
2018: $15.6B
2019: $19.2B
2020: $17.1B
2021: $26.0B
2022: $36.2B
2023: $23.2B
2024: $22.7B
2025: $21.6B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $5.4B
2008: $6.9B
2009: $2.9B
2010: $4.5B
2011: $6.8B
2012: $4.6B
2013: $5.9B
2014: $616.0M
2015: −$7.8B
2016: −$574.0M
2017: $1.3B
2018: $4.1B
2019: −$985.0M
2020: −$14.8B
2021: $2.3B
2022: $13.3B
2023: $4.7B
2024: $3.1B
2025: $2.4B
−$10.0B$0$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $3.4B
2008: $6.5B
2009: $2.7B
2010: $5.6B
2011: $4.8B
2012: $3.4B
2013: $5.4B
2014: $2.1B
2015: −$1.9B
2016: $667.0M
2017: $1.3B
2018: $2.7B
2019: $1.0B
2020: $1.4B
2021: $7.6B
2022: $12.3B
2023: $6.6B
2024: $5.2B
2025: $4.1B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 820.5M
2009: 813.8M
2010: 813.8M
2011: 812.9M
2012: 810.0M
2013: 804.6M
2014: 781.1M
2015: 765.6M
2016: 763.8M
2017: 765.9M
2018: 763.3M
2019: 809.5M
2020: 918.7M
2021: 958.8M
2022: 1.0B
2023: 960.9M
2024: 967.1M
2025: 1.0B
0500.0M1.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-50%0%07101316192225
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $1.9B
2008: $2.5B
2009: $1.1B
2010: $1.2B
2011: $1.7B
2012: $2.7B
2013: $2.5B
2014: $4.7B
2015: $2.9B
2016: $2.3B
2017: $2.4B
2018: $3.6B
2019: $2.9B
2020: $1.9B
2021: $847.0M
2022: $4.3B
2023: $2.4B
2024: $841.0M
2025: $945.0M
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$20.0B$40.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $6.6B
Q3'23: $7.3B
Q4'23: $2.2B
Q1'24: $6.7B
Q2'24: $6.8B
Q3'24: $7.0B
Q4'24: $2.2B
Q1'25: $5.8B
Q2'25: $5.2B
Q3'25: $6.7B
Q4'25: $3.9B
Q1'26: $5.6B
Q2'26: $7.1B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $860.0M
Q3'23: $1.4B
Q4'23: $1.2B
Q1'24: $888.0M
Q2'24: $1.2B
Q3'24: $1.1B
Q4'24: −$120.0M
Q1'25: $945.0M
Q2'25: $468.0M
Q3'25: $842.0M
Q4'25: $114.0M
Q1'26: $3.4B
Q2'26: $3.0B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$7.1B+36.6%$3.0B+540.2%2.75$4.3B
Q1'26$5.6B−4.2%$3.4B+255.4%3.13$1.3B
Q4'25 *$3.9B+81.3%$114.0M—-0.07$2.6B
Q3'25$6.7B−4.8%$842.0M−26.1%0.65$2.8B
Q2'25$5.2B−24.1%$468.0M−60.0%0.26$3.0B
Q1'25$5.8B−13.6%$945.0M+6.4%0.77$2.1B
Q4'24 *$2.2B−3.8%−$120.0M−110.0%-0.32$3.4B
Q3'24$7.0B−3.5%$1.1B−17.1%0.98$3.7B
Q2'24$6.8B+3.0%$1.2B+36.0%1.03$2.4B
Q1'24$6.7B−5.4%$888.0M−29.7%0.75$2.0B
Q4'23 *$2.2B−73.0%$1.2B−37.8%1.07$3.2B
Q3'23$7.3B−22.3%$1.4B−49.9%1.20$3.1B
Q2'23$6.6B−36.2%$860.0M−77.1%0.63$3.1B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue−15.9%+4.7%+5.6%+0.8%
Operating cash flow−14.4%+21.6%+12.1%+0.6%
Free cash flow−30.7%+23.7%+6.1%−2.1%
EPS (diluted)−49.4%−15.9%+6.7%−7.9%
Equity+6.2%+14.2%+4.0%+0.7%
LT debt+3.8%−9.8%+12.1%+10.0%
Diluted shares−0.1%+1.7%+2.7%+1.4%
Stock price+0.3%+20.2%+0.3%+0.7%

$100, 3 years ago

$101vs $176 in SPY

0.3% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$250vs $181 in SPY

20.2% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$103vs $412 in SPY

0.3% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$112vs $813 in SPY

0.7% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$1.30

$27.8B created / $21.3B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

18.3%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

13.0%

MC vs 10× OCF

0.58

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

5.2y

SBC / FCF

5.7%

Owner earnings

$3.9B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

6.3%

Share count 5y

+1.2%

per year; negative = buybacks

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 5.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 208.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 10.7% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

14 of 23 checks pass · 61%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

3/6

  • Revenue growth

    4.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • EPS growth

    — · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na

  • FCF growth

    23.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    7 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    fail

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    21.6% vs 4.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

4/5

  • Net margin

    11.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    — · ≥ 10%

    na

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    6.6% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • Cash ROIC

    18.3% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    19.0% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $10.5B vs NI $2.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    5.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    9% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.59 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $36.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    — · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    1.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail

  • Stock comp restrained

    6% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    23% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    6.7% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    25.9 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    3.7% vs 23.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    1.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Revenue declining

Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.

Heavy debt load

Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202521,569——2,3691.6110,5326,4274,10594502341,96821,39736,0341,000
202422,710——3,0782.4411,4396,2635,176814272132,12525,32434,159967
202323,230——4,6963.9012,3085,6966,6126461,7982031,42619,00130,250961
202236,234——13,30412.4016,8104,49712,3131,1843,09925898419,14630,0851,002
202125,959——2,3221.5810,4342,8707,56483982872,76429,02820,327959
202017,130——-14,831-17.063,9552,5351,4201,845122022,00835,74518,573919
201919,192——-985-1.227,3756,3671,0082,6242372083,03238,53734,232810
201815,560——4,1315.397,6694,9752,6942,3741,2481803,03310,20121,330763
201712,508——1,3111.704,8613,5991,2622,346251501,6729,328-258766
201610,090——-574-0.753,3842,7176672,309221212,2339,81921,497764
201512,480——-7,829-10.233,3515,272-1,9212,264593493,2016,85524,350766
201419,312——6160.7911,0688,9302,1382,2102,5001293,7896,83834,959781
201320,170——5,9037.3212,7787,3575,4211,5539431523,3936,93943,126805
201220,100——4,5985.6711,2997,8743,4252,128583781,5927,02340,016810
201123,939——6,7718.3212,2817,5184,7631,4362741103,7815,87137,620813
201019,045——4,5305.569,5663,9405,6261,159671362,5785,11132,484814
200914,814——2,9153.585,9463,2452,7011,063401511,2242,55729,081814
200823,713——6,8578.3410,6544,1266,5289401,5111391,7772,04927,325821
200718,784——5,4006.426,7983,3603,4387651,129—1,962—22,858—

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗