ORLY
O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary · Automotive Retail
$90.68
52w 82.59 – 108.72
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$73.4B
P/E
28.9
P/FCF
46.1
FCF yield
2.2%
ROE
-332.5%
Shldr yield
2.9%
div 0.0% + bb 2.9%
What today's price assumes
At $73.4B, the market is pricing in 19.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 5.5% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $30 · $34 · $42 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 15.5× across 18 years, ORLY would trade near $53/share (25th–75th percentile: $41–$59); it trades at 26.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+7.3%
Rev 5y
+8.9%
Rev 10y
+8.4%
EPS 5y
+12.2%
EPS 10y
+16.4%
FCF 5y
−7.6%
FCF 10y
+5.5%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $4.9B | +8.1% | $715.1M | +7.0% | 0.86 | $1.0B |
| Q1'26 | $4.6B | +10.2% | $604.2M | +12.2% | 0.72 | $1.0B |
| Q4'25 * | $4.4B | +7.8% | $605.2M | +9.8% | 0.72 | $633.5M |
| Q3'25 | $4.7B | +7.8% | $725.9M | +9.1% | 0.85 | $616.5M |
| Q2'25 | $4.5B | +5.9% | $668.6M | +7.3% | 0.78 | $756.8M |
| Q1'25 | $4.1B | +4.0% | $538.5M | −1.6% | 0.62 | $755.1M |
| Q4'24 * | $4.1B | +6.9% | $551.1M | −0.2% | -7.95 | $624.5M |
| Q3'24 | $4.4B | +3.8% | $665.5M | +2.4% | 0.76 | $772.0M |
| Q2'24 | $4.3B | +5.0% | $622.8M | −0.7% | 0.70 | $948.9M |
| Q1'24 | $4.0B | +7.2% | $547.2M | +5.9% | 9.20 | $704.2M |
| Q4'23 | $3.8B | +5.1% | $552.5M | +4.5% | 9.26 | $516.4M |
| Q3'23 | $4.2B | +10.7% | $649.8M | +11.0% | 10.72 | $866.3M |
| Q2'23 | $4.1B | +10.8% | $627.4M | +8.8% | 10.22 | $937.6M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +7.3% | +8.9% | +8.4% | +8.3% |
| Operating cash flow | −4.3% | −0.5% | +7.5% | +9.5% |
| Free cash flow | −14.9% | −7.6% | +5.5% | +10.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | +7.7% | +12.2% | +16.4% | +19.3% |
| Equity | −40.1% | −41.0% | −26.9% | — |
| LT debt | +11.2% | +7.9% | +15.7% | +20.7% |
| Diluted shares | −2.2% | −4.0% | −5.0% | −5.5% |
| Stock price | +13.1% | +18.0% | +17.1% | +22.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$145vs $176 in SPY
13.1% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$229vs $181 in SPY
18.0% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$486vs $412 in SPY
17.1% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,096vs $813 in SPY
22.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$4.69
$54.5B created / $11.6B retained
Last 10 years
$3.25
$59.4B created / $18.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
52.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.5%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.66
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.8y
SBC / FCF
2.2%
Owner earnings
$1.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.1%
Share count 5y
−4.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
35.2%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.35
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 8.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -5.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -0.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 27 checks pass · 63%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
8.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
12.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-7.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-0.5% vs 8.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/7
- pass
Net margin
14.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
19.5% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
51.6% vs 51.2% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-332.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
52.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
9.0% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.8B vs NI $2.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
3% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
-7.88 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
−$763.4M · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
7% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-4.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
132% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.2% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
28.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
19.1% vs 5.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17,782 | 9,174 | 3,461 | 2,538 | 2.97 | 2,762 | 1,169 | 1,593 | — | 2,097 | 35 | 194 | 6,017 | -763 | 856 |
| 2024 | 16,708 | 8,554 | 3,251 | 2,387 | 2.71 | 3,050 | 1,023 | 2,026 | — | 2,077 | 29 | 130 | 5,521 | -1,371 | 881 |
| 2023 | 15,812 | 8,105 | 3,186 | 2,347 | 2.56 | 3,034 | 1,006 | 2,028 | — | 3,151 | 28 | 279 | 5,570 | -1,739 | 915 |
| 2022 | 14,410 | 7,382 | 2,954 | 2,173 | 2.37 | 3,148 | 563 | 2,585 | — | 3,282 | 26 | 109 | 4,372 | -1,061 | 915 |
| 2021 | 13,328 | 7,020 | 2,917 | 2,165 | 2.21 | 3,207 | 443 | 2,764 | — | 2,476 | 25 | 362 | 3,827 | -66 | 980 |
| 2020 | 11,604 | 6,086 | 2,419 | 1,752 | 1.67 | 2,837 | 466 | 2,371 | — | 2,087 | 23 | 466 | 4,123 | 140 | 1,049 |
| 2019 | 10,150 | 5,395 | 1,921 | 1,391 | 1.27 | 1,708 | 628 | 1,080 | — | 1,433 | 22 | 40 | 3,891 | 397 | 1,096 |
| 2018 | 9,536 | 5,040 | 1,815 | 1,324 | 1.14 | 1,728 | 504 | 1,223 | — | 1,714 | 20 | 31 | 3,417 | 354 | 1,159 |
| 2017 | 8,978 | 4,721 | 1,725 | 1,134 | 0.90 | 1,404 | 466 | 938 | — | 2,173 | 19 | 46 | 2,978 | 653 | 1,261 |
| 2016 | 8,593 | 4,509 | 1,699 | 1,038 | 0.76 | 1,511 | 476 | 1,034 | — | 1,505 | 19 | 147 | 1,887 | 1,627 | 1,362 |
| 2015 | 7,967 | 4,163 | 1,514 | 931 | 0.65 | 1,345 | 414 | 931 | — | 1,136 | 22 | 116 | 1,400 | 1,961 | 1,430 |
| 2014 | 7,216 | 3,709 | 1,270 | 778 | 0.52 | 1,190 | 430 | 760 | — | 866 | 23 | 251 | 1,400 | 2,018 | 1,494 |
| 2013 | 6,649 | 3,369 | 1,103 | 670 | 0.43 | 908 | 396 | 512 | — | 933 | 22 | 231 | 1,400 | 1,966 | 1,565 |
| 2012 | 6,182 | 3,097 | 977 | 586 | 0.34 | 1,252 | 301 | 951 | — | 1,445 | 22 | 248 | 1,100 | 2,108 | 1,737 |
| 2011 | 5,789 | 2,837 | 867 | 508 | 0.26 | 1,119 | 328 | 791 | — | 977 | 21 | 362 | 798 | 2,845 | 1,929 |
| 2010 | 5,398 | 2,621 | 713 | 419 | 0.21 | 704 | 365 | 338 | — | 0 | 17 | 30 | 357 | 3,210 | 2,000 |
| 2009 | 4,847 | 2,327 | 538 | 307 | 0.16 | 285 | 415 | -130 | — | 0 | 21 | 27 | 684 | 2,686 | 1,942 |
| 2008 | 3,577 | 1,628 | 336 | 186 | 0.11 | 299 | 342 | -43 | — | — | 6 | 31 | — | 2,282 | 1,766 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.