MMarketMath

ORCL

StalwartQuality: High (73/100)1 red flag

Oracle Corporation · Information Technology · Application Software

$142.45

52w 114.50 – 345.72

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$410.3B

P/E

24.7

P/FCF

—

FCF yield

-5.6%

ROE

40.2%

Shldr yield

1.4%

div 1.4% + bb 0.0%

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 12.2× across 19 years, ORCL would trade near $135/share (25th–75th percentile: $117–$150); it trades at 12.8× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+10.5%

Rev 5y

+10.7%

Rev 10y

+6.2%

EPS 5y

+5.1%

EPS 10y

+10.9%

FCF 5y

—

FCF 10y

—

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings

Revenue

2008: $22.4B
2009: $23.3B
2010: $26.8B
2011: $35.6B
2012: $37.1B
2013: $37.2B
2014: $38.3B
2015: $38.2B
2016: $37.0B
2017: $37.8B
2018: $39.4B
2019: $39.5B
2020: $39.1B
2021: $40.5B
2022: $42.4B
2023: $50.0B
2024: $53.0B
2025: $57.4B
2026: $67.4B
$0$20.0B$40.0B$60.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Net income

2008: $5.6B
2009: $5.7B
2010: $6.1B
2011: $8.5B
2012: $10.0B
2013: $10.9B
2014: $11.0B
2015: $9.9B
2016: $8.9B
2017: $9.5B
2018: $3.6B
2019: $11.1B
2020: $10.1B
2021: $13.7B
2022: $6.7B
2023: $8.5B
2024: $10.5B
2025: $12.4B
2026: $17.1B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Free cash flow

2008: $7.4B
2009: $8.3B
2010: $8.5B
2011: $10.8B
2012: $13.1B
2013: $13.6B
2014: $14.3B
2015: $13.2B
2016: $12.5B
2017: $12.1B
2018: $13.7B
2019: $12.9B
2020: $11.6B
2021: $13.8B
2022: $5.0B
2023: $8.5B
2024: $11.8B
2025: −$394.0M
2026: −$23.7B
−$20.0B−$10.0B$0$10.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 5.2B
2009: 5.1B
2010: 5.1B
2011: 5.1B
2012: 5.1B
2013: 4.8B
2014: 4.6B
2015: 4.5B
2016: 4.3B
2017: 4.2B
2018: 4.2B
2019: 3.7B
2020: 3.3B
2021: 3.0B
2022: 2.8B
2023: 2.8B
2024: 2.8B
2025: 2.9B
2026: 2.9B
02.0B4.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Margins

0%50%08111417202326
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2008: $2.0B
2009: $4.2B
2010: $2.0B
2011: $2.2B
2012: $7.1B
2013: $12.5B
2014: $12.0B
2015: $10.3B
2016: $13.0B
2017: $6.2B
2018: $14.5B
2019: $39.1B
2020: $22.3B
2021: $24.0B
2022: $19.7B
2023: $5.0B
2024: $5.6B
2025: $5.3B
2026: $5.9B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$20.0B$40.0B08111417202326
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q4'23: $13.8B
Q1'24: $12.5B
Q2'24: $12.9B
Q3'24: $13.3B
Q4'24: $14.3B
Q1'25: $13.3B
Q2'25: $14.1B
Q3'25: $14.1B
Q4'25: $15.9B
Q1'26: $14.9B
Q2'26: $16.1B
Q3'26: $17.2B
Q4'26: $19.2B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
23
24
25
26
26

Net income by quarter

Q4'23: $3.3B
Q1'24: $2.4B
Q2'24: $2.5B
Q3'24: $2.4B
Q4'24: $3.1B
Q1'25: $2.9B
Q2'25: $3.2B
Q3'25: $2.9B
Q4'25: $3.4B
Q1'26: $2.9B
Q2'26: $6.1B
Q3'26: $3.7B
Q4'26: $4.3B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
23
24
25
26
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q4'26 *$19.2B+20.6%$4.3B+25.6%1.45$14.6B
Q3'26$17.2B+21.7%$3.7B+26.7%1.27$7.2B
Q2'26$16.1B+14.2%$6.1B+94.7%2.10$2.1B
Q1'26$14.9B+12.2%$2.9B−0.1%1.01$8.1B
Q4'25 *$15.9B+11.3%$3.4B+9.0%1.19$6.2B
Q3'25$14.1B+6.4%$2.9B+22.3%1.02$5.9B
Q2'25$14.1B+8.6%$3.2B+25.9%1.10$1.3B
Q1'25$13.3B+6.9%$2.9B+21.0%1.03$7.4B
Q4'24 *$14.3B+3.3%$3.1B−5.3%1.11$6.1B
Q3'24$13.3B+7.1%$2.4B+26.6%0.85$5.5B
Q2'24$12.9B+5.4%$2.5B+43.8%0.89$143.0M
Q1'24$12.5B+8.8%$2.4B+56.3%0.86$7.0B
Q4'23 *$13.8B−67.4%$3.3B—1.20$5.6B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+10.5%+10.7%+6.2%+4.3%
Operating cash flow+23.0%+15.0%+8.9%+7.2%
Free cash flow−5.0%−1.7%−1.9%+2.4%
EPS (diluted)+23.8%+5.1%+10.9%+8.7%
Equity+240.9%+52.0%−1.1%+0.4%
LT debt————
Diluted shares+1.8%−0.7%−3.8%−3.7%
Stock price+7.0%+11.3%+14.9%+13.0%

$100, 3 years ago

$123vs $176 in SPY

7.0% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$171vs $181 in SPY

11.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$401vs $412 in SPY

14.9% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$626vs $813 in SPY

13.0% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$6.22

$206.5B created / $33.2B retained

Last 10 years

$4.14

$274.4B created / $66.3B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

75.2%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

8.2%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.32

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

—

SBC / FCF

—

Owner earnings

−$28.5B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

-6.8%

Share count 5y

−3.2%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

148.4%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$3.46

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 36.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 44.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 16.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

18 of 22 checks pass · 82%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/6

  • Revenue growth

    10.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    5.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    — · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na

  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    15.0% vs 10.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

5/6

  • Net margin

    25.4% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    30.6% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    40.2% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    75.2% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    -35.2% · ≥ 5%

    fail

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $32.0B vs NI $17.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass

  • Cash cushion

    — · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass

  • Leverage

    — · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $42.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    22% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

2/2

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -3.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    — · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    — · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    na

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

1/3

  • FCF yield

    -5.6% · ≥ 3%

    fail

  • Earnings multiple

    24.7 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    — · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na

  • Shareholder yield

    1.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Negative free cash flow

Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202667,357—20,60617,0875.8331,97755,663-23,6865,787954,81131,289—42,5082,914
202557,399—17,67812,4434.3420,82121,215-3944,7436004,67410,786—20,4512,866
202452,961—15,35310,4673.7118,6736,86611,8074,3911,2023,97410,454—8,7042,823
202349,954—13,0938,5033.0717,1658,6958,4703,6681,3003,5479,765—1,0732,766
202242,440—10,9266,7172.419,5394,5115,0283,45716,2482,61321,3830-6,2202,786
202140,479—15,21313,7464.5515,8872,13513,7523,06320,9341,83730,098—5,2383,022
202039,068—13,89610,1353.0813,1391,56411,5753,07019,2401,59037,239—12,0743,294
201939,506—13,53511,0832.9714,5511,66012,8912,93236,1401,65320,514—21,7853,732
201839,38324,28713,2643,5870.8515,3861,73613,6503,14011,3471,60721,620—46,3724,238
201737,79223,01712,9139,4522.2414,1262,02112,1052,6313,5611,35021,784—53,8604,217
201637,04722,41012,6048,9012.0713,6851,18912,4962,54110,4401,03720,152—47,2894,305
201538,22623,70913,8719,9382.2114,5801,39113,1892,2558,08793321,716—48,6634,503
201438,275—14,75910,9552.3814,92158014,3412,1789,81380517,769—46,8784,604
201337,180—14,68410,9252.2614,22465013,5741,43311,02175514,613—44,6484,844
201237,121—13,7069,9811.9613,74364813,0951,2055,85665914,955—43,6885,095
201135,622—12,0338,5471.6711,21445010,7641,0611,16051016,163—39,7765,128
201026,820—9,0626,1351.218,6812308,4511,0049924369,914—30,7985,073
200923,252—8,3215,6771.098,255—8,2552503,9723558,995—25,0905,130
200822,430—7,8445,5811.067,402—7,40202,0233698,262—23,3945,229

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗